“Good for the state” is the slogan of the conservative candidate Manuel Hagel's campaign in Baden-Württemberg.
The wealthy federal state of Baden-Württemberg is famous for its car industry, being home to the motoring giants Mercedes-Benz and Porsche. On 8 March the people of Baden-Württemberg will elect a new government. There is palpable anxiety during the election campaign that the switch to electric cars could put prosperity at risk. The election will also be a symbolic test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's (Friedrich Merz) government a year after the federal elections. The results in Baden-Württemberg could influence the outcomes in other federal states (where elections are due this year).
Baden-Württemberg has the only regional government led by the Green Party, which currently forms a coalition with Friedrich Merz's conservative Christian Democratic party (CDU).
For several months now a CDU victory has been forecast in this federal state, although the latest poll results indicate a rise in the Green Party's popularity, making the outcome of the election unpredictable. Both the Greens and the Christian Democrats are polling at just under 30% support, followed by the far-right party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) with less than 20%.
Employment and the economy dominate the election campaign. In this wealthy German state, famous for its car industry and home not only to Mercedes-Benz and Porsche but also to an enormous network of suppliers dominated by another industrial giant – Bosch – the question of a total switch to electric mobility is important, even decisive, for many voters. The region's industry is heavily dependent on exports and is in a structural crisis, having to contend with the shift to electric cars, weaker global demand, the tariffs imposed by the US president and rapidly growing competition from China. All of this is causing job losses and fears of an unprecedented economic downturn.
While the Green Party stresses the economic opportunities associated with the transition to climate neutrality, the conservatives warn against “overburdening the economy for the sake of climate targets”. The results of this election will certainly echo beyond the borders of the federal state. In difficult economic and geopolitical conditions, Germany urgently needs to build a new model of prosperity. German political scientists believe that this, incidentally, will also be decided in Baden-Württemberg. The economic fortune and dazzling successes of Germany and this region in previous years rested in part on foundations that have already disappeared – cheap Russian gas and strong Chinese demand for goods marked “Made in Germany”, cars among them. US security guarantees were also essential, and these, in effect, no longer exist.
A new phenomenon that bodes ill
The current Green Party premier Winfried Kretschmann (Winfried Kretschmann), whose pragmatic approach made him highly popular even among many conservative voters, is stepping down after 15 successful years. Baden-Württemberg will have a new leader after the election.
The Green Party candidate Cem Özdemir (Cem Özdemir), Germany's former agriculture minister, united his party behind an election campaign focused on “the economy, the economy, the economy”, while the CDU candidate Manuel Hagel warned that everything must be done to stop the regional capital Stuttgart, in the midst of an industrial downturn, from becoming “Europe's Detroit”, comparing the situation to the devastating crisis in the US car-making centre. It is worth recalling that the 2008 financial crisis, with the collapse of the car industry, wrecked Detroit, accelerating a general decline, triggering mass mortgage foreclosures and destroying the tax base. The crisis culminated in 2013 in the largest municipal bankruptcy in US history (18 billion US dollars), brought about by 11 billion US dollars in pension liabilities, an unemployment rate of 29% and a fall in the population to 700,000.
It should be emphasised that in the past year alone Germany's car industry lost around 50,000 jobs. Bosch, based in the Stuttgart region, plans to cut 22,000 jobs. The crisis is being felt in everyday life as well as in politics. More and more people in Stuttgart are looking for work, which can be regarded as a new but deeply unwelcome phenomenon in this part of Germany. The federal state depends on the car industry not only for jobs but also for tax revenue. Trade tax revenue in Stuttgart fell by almost 50% last year – to 750 million euros. Because of the drop in earnings, the carmakers Mercedes and Porsche paid far smaller sums in tax than before. In nearby Rastatt, tax revenue fell by as much as two thirds because of Mercedes' difficulties.
Both Cem Özdemir and Manuel Hagel have pledged to continue what the outgoing premier began, which means that the differences between the Green Party and the CDU in the region are far smaller than at federal level. The Green politician Özdemir tries not to sound too progressive, and the CDU's Hagel avoids sounding too conservative; it is rather hard to see any real differences between the two.
“The road to the goal must be chosen correctly…”
On the future of the car industry, C. Özdemir stresses electrification as the direction of development, while M. Hagel relies more on the development of combustion technologies. Both, however, follow in W. Kretschmann's footsteps in emphasising pragmatism. In line with that example, C. Özdemir has spoken out during the campaign against strict European Union penalties for carmakers that fail to meet EU emissions standards, casting doubt on the planned end of combustion-engine use in 2035. “It is not decisive whether we get there a year earlier or later. What is decisive is choosing the right road to the goal,” the Green Party leader stressed.
W. Kretschmann has often put the federal state's economy above his own party's policy, particularly in defending the interests of the car industry. To environmental activists and some Berlin Green politicians appalled by carmaking in Germany, W. Kretschmann pointed out that European Union penalties for excessive vehicle emissions “make no sense at all”. The Green premier's government in Baden-Württemberg joined other car-industry-friendly federal states in the fight against strict emissions rules in Europe. The CDU's M. Hagel similarly stresses the flexibility needed for the sake of the local economy: “It does not matter to me what engine a car has, whether it is a plug-in hybrid, an electric car or an internal combustion engine. The main thing is that it comes from Baden-Württemberg.”
A test of public support
Although W. Kretschmann made headlines in Germany with his car-industry-friendly stance, he made climate action a cornerstone of the current government's coalition agreement and oversaw the introduction of a new climate law requiring the state he leads to become climate neutral by 2040 (five years earlier than Germany's national target), which would demand a rapid transformation of industry and faster deployment of renewable energy.
Climate action in the car industry and other sectors is the central question in the coming election, and it is becoming ever more contentious. Recent polls show that voters' concerns about the economy and security are displacing worries about climate change, with a sharp rise in scepticism about the way the country's energy transition is currently being carried out. As in other European countries, opinion in Germany is divided between long-term climate action and short-term concerns about the financial burden and about geopolitical and economic stability.
That is precisely why the election in Baden-Württemberg is a test of German public support for green transition policy at a time when regional and national questions about how to meet Germany's climate targets remain unresolved.
* Baden-Württemberg (German: Baden-Württemberg) is one of Germany's 16 federal states. It lies in the south-west of the country and is the third largest federal state both by area (~35,752 km²) and by population, which exceeds 11 million. The capital is Stuttgart (Stuttgart), with a population of roughly 613,000. The premier is Winfried Kretschmann of the Green Party. The region is world-famous for its car industry; the headquarters of the motoring groups Mercedes-Benz and Porsche are located here, as is the technology giant SAP. The federal state borders France, Switzerland and Austria. The famous Black Forest mountain range lies within the region.