Analysts estimate that by 2028, 90% of Russia's logging machinery will be worn out. Given the Kremlin's planned 50% increase in forest land rental fees, the government appears to have no plans to rescue the forestry sector.

The total area of Russia's forests is enormous – roughly 815 million hectares, or 8.15 million km². Forests cover 49.4% of the country's territory, which amounts to around 20% of the world's entire forest area. Russia does not lack forests, but it is catastrophically short of logging machinery. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service has officially announced that the crisis in Russia's forestry and timber industry is systemic, as commercial logging has fallen to its lowest level since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It is reported that 90% of the logging machinery imported into the country will be worn out by 2028. Instead of supporting the sector, the Kremlin is preparing to raise the fees for leasing forest land sharply.

Russian timber production has fallen to its lowest level since Russia's leadership ordered the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Last year logging fell by 10% – to 176 million cubic metres, almost a third less than ten years ago. This information comes from Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service and is confirmed by the newspaper Moscow Times, which reported that in 2024 timber harvesting fell by 13% compared with the pre-war level, sawn timber production fell by 11% and veneer production dropped by 23%. Experts believe the cause has already become structural rather than cyclical.

Before the war, Russia accounted for around 22% of global trade in softwood sawn timber. When the war began, Western companies left the market en masse and exports of equipment to Russia were halted. The international forest certification organisations FSC and PEFC withdrew Russia's forestry sustainability certificates. Export revenues fell from 12.5 billion US dollars in 2021 to 9.8 billion.

China is the Russians' last significant market, and it too is losing ground

A representative of Fastmarkets told the International Softwood Conference that in the first half of 2025 the volume of the Chinese market fell by 10% compared with the previous year, and price levels on the market remained low. Although the market situation is poor at present as well, the bigger (indeed enormous) problem is equipment.

According to assessments of the situation, around 90% of the imported logging machines and forestry vehicles currently in use in Russia will no longer be operable by 2028. Sanctions have blocked access to Western manufacturers — John Deere, Ponsse and Komatsu Forest – the companies that serviced most of Russia's professional logging fleet no longer operate in Russia. Domestic machinery builders can fill that gap neither technologically nor physically. Over the next two to three years the shortfall is estimated at several thousand units of machinery.

Instead of supporting the forestry sector, the Kremlin plans to raise forest land rental fees by 40-50%. Ukraine's intelligence service reports that such a step “will further reduce the appeal of the forestry sector to investors and workers”. The situation is made considerably worse by potential restrictions on the use of bank accounts in Russia, which will constrain employees and the circulation of capital in a sector that already suffers from a lack of resources.

Speaking before a Federation Council committee, deputy minister of industry and trade M. Yurin acknowledged that the country's forestry sector is “in decline”, noting that in the worst case production volumes will fall by 20-30% in 2026, while 2027 could bring an even steeper drop, “if the geopolitical situation continues to deteriorate” (...)