A letter signed by 32 members of the US Congress reveals that, for the first time in history, the export value of US hardwood sawlogs has overtaken that of sawn hardwood. Meanwhile, Russia has taken over the Chinese market that once earned American sawmills 1.5 billion US dollars a year.

Seven senators and 25 members of the House of Representatives have petitioned the Trump administration to include American hardwood lumber in China's 17-billion-dollar purchase commitments. The lawmakers want it to replace the raw logs currently flowing to Chinese sawmills in bulk. The letter, initiated by Senators Shelley Moore Capito and Jeanne Shaheen together with Representatives G. T. Thompson and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, was sent to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on 30 June and made public last week.

“America's forests are supplying raw materials to foreign processing plants that are taking jobs away from American workers,” the authors stressed to Greer in the letter, warning that if the purchase deal is based on sawlogs alone, China will simply buy up US timber and wipe out the domestic production those resources sustain.

The letter points to a historic turning point: by mid-2024, the export value of US hardwood sawlogs had, for the first time ever, overtaken the export value of sawn hardwood. China and Vietnam process these logs into lumber and then supply it back into global markets, competing directly with American-made products.

Huge losses and problems for domestic production

The letter's authors cite data from the Hardwood Federation showing that the US once supplied more than 31% of all China's hardwood lumber imports. That trade, once worth 1.5 billion dollars a year, has now shrunk to 701 million. American market share has been taken over by competitors from Russia, Malaysia and Thailand. Total losses from the loss of market access are estimated at around 9.882 billion US dollars.

The fall in sales has hit domestic production hard. US hardwood lumber output has fallen by 48.3% since 2018, while production capacity declined by 6% between 2020 and 2022.

In the first quarter of 2025, production volumes were 19% lower than a year earlier. The letter stresses that China has historically consumed around a quarter of all US-produced hardwood, so restoring that relationship is “vital” for communities across the country's regions.

The warnings raised in the letter run counter to the current market situation. New data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that the flow of raw sawlogs from the US to China is rising sharply again. In May alone, 69,700 cubic metres of logs were shipped there, accounting for 12.9% of all US log exports, at 623 US dollars per cubic metre – a price consistent with high-value walnut and oak. Every exported sawlog will be milled in a Chinese, not an American, sawmill – precisely what the letter's signatories want to prevent with the help of the bilateral Board of Trade.

Support for US sawmills as a national-security issue

The lawmakers link the trade dispute to national security. American hardwood sawmills produce industrial decking for the energy sector, shipping pallets for military and civilian logistics, and railway sleepers. The members of Congress stress in the letter that if sawmilling capacity is lost, it will be extremely difficult to rebuild, since the workforce disperses and the infrastructure falls into disrepair.

The lawmakers want a solution brokered through the trade chamber that was set up following the so-called one-year truce reached between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea. That agreement led Beijing to lift its earlier restrictions on log imports on 10 November last year.

The members of Congress make three specific requests in their letter to the president:

First – formally include hardwood lumber in the new trade framework.

Second – specify that China's 17-billion-dollar purchase commitments count towards sawn lumber specifically, not round wood.

Third – introduce strict, regularly audited enforcement mechanisms to ensure the deal is actually carried out.

It is worth noting that in the area around Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, around 50 sawmills and eight veneer plants have relatively recently started operating specifically to process hardwood logs from the Appalachian region of the US. These plants sell the finished lumber in the very markets the US is trying to win back. That, of course, is unacceptable to Americans.

While the trade dispute with China dragged on, West Virginia timber producers were actively signing deals with buyers in Mumbai and Hanoi. As a result, Southeast Asian countries have now overtaken China in the volume of American hardwood they purchase. The members of Congress say they are ready to discuss the matter in person, pointing to two figures that starkly illustrate the situation: the trade with China that earned US sawmills 1.5 billion dollars in 2018 now brings in only 701 million.

US-China relations in the timber market in 2026

Trade in timber and forestry products between the US and China in 2026 stands as a striking example of economic nationalism and the reshaping of global supply chains. Relations between the two powers in this field are defined by three main trends

First – the risk of becoming a “raw-material colony” and domestic US political pressure

The situation in which the US exports record volumes of raw sawlogs while losing the lumber market is causing serious concern in Washington. US lawmakers see a risk that the country is turning into a mere resource base, or China's “raw-material colony”. Beijing strategically favours importing cheaper raw logs to secure jobs and value added in its own sawmills, while the US goal, particularly under the Trump administration, is to protect domestic industry and workers in the regions.

Second – China's real-estate crisis and market diversification

Although US sawlog exports to China have jumped sharply – by around 78% compared with the previous period – following the “truce” between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping, overall timber demand in China remains relatively weak. The prolonged crisis in China's real-estate and construction sectors has made importers cautious. In recent years, American producers have been forced to diversify their exports, shifting focus to Vietnam, Thailand and India, which reduces their historical dependence on Beijing.

Third – Russia and the circumvention of global supply chains

While the US and China were locked in a mutual tariff war and sanitary bans, Russia successfully filled the resulting vacuum in the Chinese market. Although Russia's direct supplies to China have declined in early 2026, as Russia redirects trade towards Central Asia and the Middle East, it remains a very major player in the market. There is also a growing trend for US-origin timber to reach China indirectly via third countries, such as Vietnam. As we have reported before, processing plants built in Vietnam buy American round wood, process it and then sell on the lumber, sidestepping the direct US-China tariff restrictions.

In 2026, the timber trade is no longer just commerce, but a political instrument. While the trade truce provides short-term stability, the US is trying, in bilateral negotiations, to impose strict conditions – such as the 17-billion-dollar purchase quotas – to force China to buy the more expensive finished product, lumber, rather than the cheaper raw material, logs.