According to data from the Central Statistical Bureau, in September 2023, the consumer price level decreased by 0.4% compared to August. Prices for goods fell by 0.5%, while prices for services dropped by 0.2%.

September is usually characterised by a rise in prices, driven by an increase in clothing and footwear prices related to the sale of new seasonal goods; however, this year, prices fell sharply in September.

The sharp decline in prices was influenced by state support for partially compensating for the increased cost of distribution system services. Consequently, the most significant downward impact in September was the drop in prices for housing-related energy resources. State support, which reduced the fixed portion of the distribution service tariff—the fee for maintaining capacity—by 60% for households from 1 September to 31 December 2023, influenced a 19.9% drop in electricity prices, which also had the largest downward impact in September and reduced the total consumer price level by 0.8 percentage points. There was also a slight price decrease in this group for solid fuels by 1.4% and thermal energy by 0.1%.

A downward impact in September also came from a 0.3% decrease in food prices, which lowered the overall price level by 0.1 percentage points. It should be noted that the rapid rise in food prices has stalled over the last six months. The greatest impact in September, driven by seasonal factors, was the price drop for fresh vegetables and potatoes; there was also a significant price drop for bread. In contrast, the most significant upward impact came from an increase in milk prices.

It should be noted that in September, compared to August, global food prices remained practically unchanged, but over the year, they saw a decrease of 10.7%. In September, the decline in price indices for vegetable oils, dairy products, and meat offset the increase in price indices for sugar and cereals. Prices for vegetable oils fell the fastest in September. Prices decreased for all main types of vegetable oil, driven by seasonal production increases in major producing countries and abundant export supplies. The dairy price index fell for the ninth consecutive month in September, with prices decreasing for all major dairy products, primarily due to weak import demand for spot and short-term supplies, given the high inventories in leading production regions. There was a more moderate price drop for meat. Prices decreased for pork, poultry, and lamb, facilitated by ample global export opportunities, whereas high demand for imports of lean beef, particularly in the USA, caused an increase in beef prices. Following price declines over the previous seven months, cereal prices rose moderately in September, influenced by an increase in the prices of coarse grains, whereas wheat prices continued to fall, driven by ample supplies from Russia. Overall, global cereal prices were 14.6% lower than in September of the previous year. Conversely, there was a sharp rise in the sugar price index in September, reaching its highest level since November 2010, which was mainly driven by drier than usual weather conditions in India and Thailand, heightening concerns about the potential impact of the El Niño phenomenon on 2023/2024 production prospects, as well as higher oil prices.

For services, prices fell by an average of 0.2% in September, reducing the total consumer price level by 0.1 percentage points. The largest downward impact was the price decrease for transport services, which was primarily influenced by lower prices for international flights. As the season ended, prices for accommodation services decreased significantly. In turn, the most significant upward impact was seen in the increased cost of higher and pre-school education services.

For the third consecutive month, fuel prices rose. In September, they increased by 4.8%, which raised the overall consumer price level by 0.3 percentage points and had the largest upward impact. Prices rose sharply for both diesel and petrol. Global oil prices also continued to rise sharply in September for the third month in a row – by an average of 9% over the month, with Brent crude oil reaching 96 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month, the highest level in the last ten months. The rise in oil prices continued to be driven by voluntary oil production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia and announcements to maintain production limits until the end of the year, as well as oil production restrictions set by other OPEC+ countries. Russia also imposed restrictions on fuel exports to stabilise its internal market, while crude oil stocks continued to fall in the USA. However, concerns about weakening global demand caused a sharp drop in global oil prices in the first week of October, but they are rising again following Hamas's unexpected attack on Israel last weekend.

For clothing and footwear, prices rose by 5% in September in connection with the sale of new autumn seasonal goods, which increased the total consumer price level by 0.3 percentage points accordingly.

With promotional campaigns ending, there was also a notable price increase in September for personal hygiene goods and beauty products of 5.8%, which raised the total price level by 0.1 percentage points.

In September 2023, compared to September of the previous year, consumer prices rose by 3.3%. Average annual inflation was 14%.

Moving forward, the primary influence on price changes will continue to be linked to global fluctuations in energy resource and food prices; their secondary impact on the prices of industrial goods and services will also be observed. Taking into account the tense geopolitical situation and the base effect of inflation dynamics, average annual inflation for 2023 as a whole is expected to be in the region of 9%.