The author, Moses Becker, is a political commentator for News.Az; he holds a doctorate in political science and specialises in inter-ethnic and inter-religious relations.
Another war engulfing the oil-producing states of the Middle East, combined with disruptions to hydrocarbon transport through the Strait of Hormuz, has brought the need to find alternative transport networks sharply into focus. Because of the supply interruptions, on 7 and 8 March the price of Brent crude oil passed 100 US dollars per barrel, and it is forecast to reach an all-time high of 215 US dollars per barrel.
The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq have cut their oil and gas production volumes, because the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed and storage sites are overflowing. Experts point out that how the situation around Hormuz develops over the coming days will be the main factor influencing the global oil market.
On the night of 9-10 March, US President Donald Trump said in an interview with CBS News that the United States is considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting what many analysts regard as the principal causes of conflict in the Middle East.
It should be noted that under international law the Strait of Hormuz has been an international shipping lane since 1974. The 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea guarantees free passage through it for vessels of all states. In practice the situation is more complicated. Despite international law, Iran is able to threaten shipping. Tehran frequently threatens to exploit this situation, using it strategically on the international stage.
Meanwhile, the US Fifth Fleet is permanently stationed in the region at a base in Bahrain, and warships of the United States and its allies regularly cross the strait. In this context, alternative routes are becoming increasingly important for the uninterrupted transport of hydrogens. In recent years the energy policy of the Central Asian states has undergone significant change, turning attention once again to pipeline projects. Amid the West's confrontation with Russia and, more recently, with Iran, the Central Asian states have identified new strategic opportunities.
After the collapse of the USSR, the West and China saw the Central Asian states as promising oil and gas exporters. Reports of substantial hydrocarbon reserves reinforced the view that they could become reliable suppliers.
Turkmenistan has become a key player in the regional hydrocarbon market. The Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project has been a central element of Ashgabat's strategy. Interest in the project was further boosted by the European Union's Nabucco project, which aimed to transport Turkmen gas to Europe. In recent years the United States, too, has been an initiator and supporter of the pipeline idea.
Turkmenistan is interested in supplying gas to the European market. Recent talks with the EU and its member states focused on exploring various options for expanding energy cooperation. Specifically, Ashgabat and Brussels agreed to begin preparations for a framework agreement on cooperation in energy. Turkmenistan has also begun working with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), which is drawing up a new strategy for Ashgabat, including initiatives in energy.
Since construction of the Caspian gas pipeline requires considerable investment and time, Turkmenistan has made transit via Turkey a priority. This route has become a central element of Turkmenistan's energy policy, supported by Western states that want to establish a large-scale gas supply corridor to Europe.
To advance this process, in November 2021 Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan signed an agreement on gas swap supplies, which entered into force in 2022 and covers 1.5-2 billion cubic metres a year. In July 2022 Iran and Azerbaijan agreed to double these volumes. In early 2024 the swap arrangement was temporarily suspended pending a new agreement between Ashgabat and Baku.
Turkmenistan's intensified energy diplomacy is taking place at a time of geopolitical shifts and transformation in the European gas market. Problems remain. Turkmenistan is heavily dependent on China, which buys around 35 billion cubic metres of its annual output of some 80-82 billion cubic metres. To reduce this dependence, Turkmenistan plans to increase gas production by 60 billion cubic metres a year.
Construction of the Trans-Caspian oil pipeline became particularly topical in mid-2022, when Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called for the country's oil export routes to be diversified. To carry out these plans, Kazakhstan intends to modernise the ports of Kuryk and Aktau and build three new tankers. The aim is to increase transport volumes along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route fivefold in the future.
Kazakhstan's ambitious plans are supported by Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, which have adopted action plans for expanding transport infrastructure. In 2024 dredging work was carried out at the port of Kuryk, and similar work was completed at Aktau in 2025. Kazakhstan plans to supply up to 7 million tonnes of oil a year in the western direction. Kazakhstan is also paying attention to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which in 2023 transported 63.4 million tonnes of oil produced in the country, a volume that rose to >70 million tonnes in 2024.
The diversification of oil export routes also has a political dimension: Kazakhstan is seeking to avoid Western sanctions. Western countries are concerned about Kazakhstan's close trade relations with Russia. At the same time, the current export routes remain vitally important, as the country has no other realistic way of transporting large volumes of hydrocarbons.
A key component in realising the Central Asian states' plans is the TRIPP project (Trump Route), which involves the construction of railways and roads, oil and gas pipelines, and the development of communications infrastructure. TRIPP is not simply a road - it is a broad transport, energy and digital corridor with a significant geopolitical component, designed to ensure the unimpeded transit of goods and services without border controls. The corridor will connect mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenia's southern region of Syunik (Zangezur) and will extend northwards to Azerbaijan and Georgia, and westwards to Turkey.
In future, TRIPP will be integrated into the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route connecting China with Europe. For Central Asia and Europe, this project will provide an alternative, faster and safer overland route, allowing trade and energy supplies to be diversified.
The successful implementation of these initiatives promises to transform not only the economy of Central Asia; it is also highly significant for the South Caucasus, Turkey and the European Union.