Data from the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) show that the value of goods exports in the first ten months of this year has risen by 682 million euros, or 4.3%, compared with the previous year. In October the increase was shallower, at just 2.2%.

Despite the fairly rapid growth in output in manufacturing, we can see that this year it is re-exports in particular that have pulled goods exports upwards. The most significant increase since the start of the year has been in the export value of mineral products (+321 million euros, or 27%) and vehicles (+139 million euros, or 16%) compared with the same period in 2024.

Although re-exports dominate, export value is also growing in product groups where we typically see a large share of locally produced goods. Total exports over the first 10 months of this year were helped along by exports of dairy products (mainly raw milk and cheese) and eggs (+125 million euros, or 30%). The largest market for these products was Lithuania, and that is also where the most significant increase was recorded. Pharmaceutical products rose by 64 million euros, or 12%, driven mainly by higher exports to Lithuania and Russia. Export turnover also grew by roughly 40 to 50 million euros in the furniture, flour (confectionery) products, and meat and meat offal groups.

Export growth this year was held back most by exports of cereals and prepared animal feed – these, too, are predominantly goods of local origin. The export value of cereals, a large share of which is wheat, fell by 17% in the three months from August to October this year against the corresponding period a year earlier. The decline reflects both the adverse effect of poor weather on crop quality and a fall in prices. The drop in animal feed exports most likely has a similar explanation. At the same time, exports of oilseeds, mainly rapeseed, have even risen slightly – by 4%.

The export value of wood and wood products, which makes up one of the most significant parts of Latvia's overall and locally produced exports, has grown by only around 20 million euros, or 0.8%, in the first 10 months of this year. Exports to the Nordic countries have fallen substantially, especially to Sweden, where the housing market is still stalling. Exports to Sweden have declined most in the value of unprocessed timber and wood fuel. The latter is nonetheless still higher than we saw in the period before 2022. Wood export turnover to the United Kingdom, on the other hand, has been increased considerably (+13%).

The first round of US import tariffs, with a 15% tariff on the European Union, including Latvia, took effect at the beginning of August. The value of Latvian goods exports to the USA fell by 5.1% over the August–October period. The greatest impact was in the wood, glassware and chemical industry product groups. Interestingly, exports to the USA were at their lowest point this year in August, but in September and October they climbed slightly month on month. Comparing month with month is, however, made difficult by the volatility in exports to the USA that has already been observed historically. A 10% tariff on wood imported into the USA took effect in mid-October. The export value of wood and wood products to the USA has been lower than a year earlier in almost every month this year, and the decline recorded in October (-25%) does not differ significantly from what was seen in previous months. One of the rare months with an increase was September, which may reflect companies' desire to ship more wood to the USA before the tariffs took effect. Overall, it appears that the initial direct impact of the tariffs on Latvian exports to the USA in the first few months has been fairly small. The direct effect may yet grow somewhat, but even if exports to the USA fall more sharply in the coming months, it should be remembered that they make up less than 2.7% of Latvia's total exports. The indirect impact of possibly slower growth in Europe and stronger competition, meanwhile, will only emerge over time.

Data from business surveys conducted by the CSB indicate that export orders in manufacturing have improved this year and returned to their long-term average level. Moreover, in November this indicator climbed to a three-year high. This means that, despite the expected impact of US import tariffs, the forecast slowdown in global trade growth and the high level of uncertainty, local producers are currently seeing growing demand in foreign markets.