Exports of Russian birch plywood to Turkey continue to rise, reaching almost 2,500 cubic metres in August 2026, or 9.5% more than the previous year. This is happening despite the European Commission (EC) previously identifying schemes where Russian products are effectively being illegally re-exported to the European Union via Turkey and other countries to bypass established tariffs.
Since May 2024, Europe has increased the anti-dumping customs duty on Russian birch plywood imports to 15.8%, extending this to shipments from Turkey and Kazakhstan, regardless of the country of origin stated in the documents. The EC concluded that the increase in imports from these countries to Europe has no economic justification other than tax evasion. Local factories in Turkey are only capable of producing approximately 17,000–20,000 cubic metres of birch plywood per year. However, in the period leading up to June 2023, Europeans received more than 33,800 cubic metres from Turkey, which proves that part of the product is not of local origin. Turkish manufacturers also use birch veneer imported from Russia to press plywood themselves, which the European Commission identified as another method of tax evasion.
While plywood produced in Europe costs at least 800 euros per cubic metre, illegally imported products—for example, via Kazakhstan or Georgia—can be bought for approximately 550 euros, creating unfair competition. The current special tax imposed by the EU on Russian plywood will conclude next month, unless Brussels initiates an official review of the situation.
General sentiment among European timber producers
There is high tension, dissatisfaction, and serious concern about the future among European timber producers. This sentiment can be described in three ways. Firstly, producers in Europe feel threatened as the market is flooded with cheaper, Russian products subject to sanctions and taxes, disguised under the flags of other countries. Local producers are unable to compete with prices that are almost a third lower than European production costs.
Secondly, there is serious scepticism regarding the effectiveness of the sanctions. Although industry associations, such as the Estonian Woodhouse Association or the European consortium Woodstock, welcomed the EC's decision to also apply duties to Turkish and Kazakh cargo, reality shows that illegal supply chains are still operating and Russian export volumes to Turkey continue to grow.
Thirdly, there is great uncertainty and even despair in the sector regarding the anti-dumping duty. The biggest concern at the moment is the fact that the anti-dumping duty will soon expire. Timber producers are impatient and insistent with Brussels officials, demanding that a review of the case be started immediately; otherwise, the European market could be overtaken by an uncontrolled wave of cheap Russian plywood, which would severely undermine the existence of local producers.
The European Commission will continue to act firmly
Given current market data, the industry's reaction, and the European Commission's firm policy to date, forecasts clearly indicate that the EC will not allow these taxes to “just end”; they will be extended or replaced by even stricter mechanisms. Although the term of the 15.8% anti-dumping duty on Russian birch plywood formally ends in November 2026, industry experts and lawyers foresee several development scenarios and forecasts.
The EC warned the industry about the approaching expiry of the tax in good time, in February 2026. For the tax not to “end”, the European producers' consortium Woodstock Consortium had to submit an official request with evidence that, if the tax were lifted, dumping and damage to the local industry would continue.
There is more than enough evidence. The discovery of illegal schemes in Turkey and Kazakhstan and the fact that Russian exports to Turkey are still growing by 9.5%, despite the expanded taxes, is a direct and irrefutable argument for the European Commission.
As soon as the EC begins the review, which is likely already being prepared, the existing duties will automatically remain in force throughout the investigation period, which typically lasts 12–15 months.
Strengthening penalties and inspections at borders
It is expected that the fight against “Trojan horse” imports will enter a new phase—not just through the planning of new taxes, but through much more aggressive physical and legal control.
The European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) and national customs authorities will step up corporate audits. Since the taxes from May 2024 apply to all plywood from Turkey—regardless of documentation—companies attempting to cheat face huge tax assessments and criminal liability for bypassing sanctions. The EC recently applied very strict anti-dumping duties (up to 86.8%) against Chinese hardwood plywood as well, because Russian and Belarusian timber was flowing into Europe through China; Europe is currently building a dense “defensive wall” against any illegal timber routes.
Price forecasts for the European market next year
Local consumers and builders must take into account that birch plywood prices in Europe will remain high.
Since cheap Russian timber will not be able to return to the market legally and illegal routes are being gradually closed, the prices of certified European—including Latvian—birch plywood will remain in a stable zone or even rise slightly; the forecast level is around 610–680 EUR per cubic metre, depending on the winter season and energy prices. For regional leaders, such as Latvijas Finieris or Finland's Koskisen, this is a positive signal, as the extension of the duties protects their investments and jobs from eastern dumping.
The duties will not be lifted in November. The European Commission and the European timber producers' consortium will do everything to legally extend the process, because the opposite scenario would mean an immediate collapse of the European market and capitulation in the face of illegal imports.