A wide-ranging pre-election campaign is in full swing in Germany ahead of the elections due on 23 February. The parties have presented potential voters with their programmes, in which the central issues are those of the energy transition, covering the future development of industry, aspects of increasing investment, energy prices and the wider use of renewable energy sources. Election posters have gone up across the country promising almost everything,– from “more money in voters’ pockets” all the way to “a stricter migration policy.” Some parties are using ambiguous slogans, such as “Zuversicht – confidence”. In political debate, as everywhere – here in Latvia too – little attention is often paid to substance, the focus falling instead on slogans and on scoring points with particular groups of voters.
The major gains won by parties that oppose the government’s basic positions on the Green Deal, climate and energy in the three eastern German federal state elections in the summer of 2024 cast serious doubt on the course of Germany’s energy transition. The parties have found themselves in a rather difficult election campaign, because politicians on the right can win far greater voter support in debates by criticising climate policy and the requirements of the Green Deal. While the coalition in Germany had not yet changed, it in 2023 put forward an ambitious climate action programme, intended to steer the country towards meeting its climate targets. However, months of argument over the most important areas of climate policy, such as the phasing out of oil and gas terminals, have held up further progress.
Projections from the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) suggest that the country is on the right track to meet its 2030 climate targets for the first time, thanks in part to a determined expansion in the use of renewable energy sources.
Growing concern about the state of the German economy
Germany is still struggling with high emissions, particularly in the transport and construction sectors. Germany’s political upheavals are playing out against growing concern about the economy as a whole, fuelled by the continuing fall in manufacturing activity, a weakening labour market and mounting worries about the future of the country’s car makers, especially the manufacturers of electric vehicles. Demand for electric cars is weak, and the car maker Volkswagen is preparing to lay off staff, as electric car sales fall sharply. Volkswagen, the country’s largest private employer, plans to cut 35,000 jobs by 2030. The government’s current target – to put 15 million electric vehicles on the roads by 2030 – is becoming ever harder to reach. Experts predict that within five years the country will fall short of it. Other German car makers are also slowing down or reviewing their earlier plans to switch their production entirely to electric cars.
The closing phase of the election campaign
With the pre-election campaign in Germany now in its closing phase, the political atmosphere has become rather heated. German voters see migration and the general state of the economy as the country’s most important issues, and the latter is in turn heavily dependent on how the Green Deal is implemented. The parties are trying to outdo one another with promises of tax relief, state support and investment programmes – in some cases with wholly unrealistic proposals for how all of it is to be financed. German news sites are covering the main energy and climate change issues of the campaign, setting out the parties’ promises in the areas of the Green Deal, climate and energy.
The latest polls still point to a possible change of government. Friedrich Merz’s conservatives (CDU/CSU) hold a commanding lead (~30%), although that margin is narrowing. Merz said he was “very optimistic” about becoming the next chancellor and might choose to work with the Social Democrats (~16%) or the Greens (~13%). Much will depend on how many parties clear the five per cent threshold for entering parliament. The far-right AfD looks set to increase its share of the vote considerably since the previous election – from ten per cent in 2021 to around 20 per cent this time – thanks above all to the mood among eastern German voters.
The current German parliament has only a few weeks left to decide on the most important legislation in the fields of energy and climate, but the prospects of reaching any agreement are unrealistic. With the collapse of the coalition, the government has lost its parliamentary majority, and it is unlikely that the opposition parties will provide the necessary votes. The bill to help build new gas-fired power stations with state support has already been taken off the agenda and will have to be dealt with by the next government. The opposition CDU/CSU alliance has said it will support changes to the law on carbon dioxide storage so as to make carbon capture and storage possible in the country (CCS, carbon capture and storage, is a process in which carbon dioxide from industrial installations is separated out before it is released into the atmosphere and then transported to a long-term storage site), as the outgoing government proposed. However, now that the FDP has left the coalition, some legislators from the Greens and the SPD are demanding changes. It is unclear whether there is enough time to approve the reform before the election. It looks impossible.
All of the above is also holding up the second stage of Germany’s “climate contracts” subsidy scheme to cut industrial emissions, which is intended to include support for CCS projects. Other obstacles to the planned measure, worth up to 12 billion euros over 15 years, are the green light from Brussels, which can only be given on the basis of state aid rules, the possible backing of Germany’s next government and the budget required, Tagesspiegel Background reports.
Also awaiting parliamentary approval are a reform of the German Energy Act (EnWG), which provides that new solar power plants will not receive state support for electricity generated during hours of so-called negative prices, and amendments to the emissions trading law. Germany, like many other EU countries, has missed the deadline of 30 June 2024 by which changes to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) had to be written into national law. The move from the national carbon pricing system for transport and heating fuels to the new ETS 2 is the main issue holding up this reform in Germany. Greater clarity is expected at the end of January, when parliament holds its final plenary sitting, although a further plenary sitting is scheduled for 11 February for a general pre-election debate. In theory that could be used to vote on these pieces of legislation. German rules provide that any laws not passed by the current parliament will in any case have to be tabled again in the next one.
Last month’s events in brief
The government approved Germany’s climate change adaptation strategy, which would leave the country better prepared to cope with extreme weather such as heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall or floods. The strategy, including its targets and measures, was required in order to meet the requirements set out in the new climate change adaptation law that parliament decided on back in the summer of 2024. Germany is said to be in great need of still greater efforts on adaptation. As we have written before on zemeunvalsts.lv and lmsp.lv, in Germany too a shortage of skilled workers could significantly delay the adaptation of Europe’s homes and cities to climate change. No solution to this problem has been found.
Cutting emissions
Figures for 2024 show that energy consumption in Germany reached a record low that year, owing to milder winter weather, the prolonged weakening of the national economy and improvements in efficiency. The use of coal fell, while consumption of fossil gas rose slightly. Norway now supplies roughly half of the gas flowing to Germany, raising concerns about security of supply. German voters dislike such heavy dependence on a single supplier, a point some parties are also stressing in the campaign debates. At the same time the use of renewable energy sources reached a new record – 55% of the electricity mix – as installed solar capacity, for example, passed the 100 gigawatt mark. Germany’s total greenhouse gas emissions fell by three per cent in 2024 compared with the previous year, the think tank Agora Energiewende noted.
Sustainability reporting
Germany has missed the 1 January deadline by which changes under the EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) had to be written into national law. Instead the country called for the extension of the CSRD to be postponed by two years and for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to be exempted from the reporting requirements the directive sets out. Investors, business associations and environmental groups warned that the move is risky at a time when economic and political uncertainty is already weighing on many companies. The EU is expected to propose amendments to the CSRD on 26 February.
On 5 February Germany’s Expert Council on Climate Change will publish a report on emissions trends and developments, which will also include requirements relating to future climate policy.
On 30 January the non-governmental organisations Climate Alliance Germany and DNR will hold an event on the future of the European Green Deal at the European Commission Representation in Berlin, bringing together Commission officials, members of parliament and climate policy researchers.