The question of how European Union environmental policy should develop from here has become particularly topical of late. The European Union is currently focusing not only on climate change; the geopolitical situation is forcing Europe to move rapidly towards greater security and competitiveness. The question of whether the EU by 2040 will set a target of cutting emissions by 90% has indeed become a very important one. It will affect Latvia too.

This target was due to be announced together with the strategy published at the end of February, the “Clean Industrial Deal”. That did not happen, however. The European Commission announced as much on the evening before the industrial strategy was made public. In mid-March the Commission announced that the proposed target was being postponed indefinitely and would not be published in the first quarter of 2025 as had been planned.

Senior policymakers in the European Union and its member states have objected to the 90% target recommended by the Commission last year. Officials want the European executive to lower it or drop it altogether. During the Energy Council meeting held in Brussels in March, Italy's energy minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin told the Commission that a proposal containing such a target figure should not be published. In his statement to the Commission he said that Europe “must carefully consider the recommended choice of a 90% reduction target for 2040 against the possible alternatives of 80% and 85%, which are compatible with the net zero objective by 2050”. The minister justified his proposal by saying: “forcing countries to take excessively drastic measures with an uncertain outcome would be very risky”.

The proposal would be tabled as an amendment to the European Union's climate legislation, which already sets a 55 per cent reduction target for 2030, as well as a target of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. The proposal would then have to be approved by a majority vote of member state governments in the European Council and by the European Parliament. At present only eight of the EU's 27 countries have unequivocally backed the 90% target. Opinion is also divided on the issue within Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's European People's Party (EPP), the largest group in the European Parliament. Several senior EPP members have openly criticised the idea.

The European Union's new energy commissioner, Dan Jørgensen, at the energy ministers' meeting in Brussels nevertheless made clear that the Commission is not backing away from the Green Deal legislation adopted during von der Leyen's first term. “Europe's fight against climate change will not stop simply because a major power on the other side of the Atlantic is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement,” Jørgensen stressed. Climate campaigners are once again voicing concern, however, that the European Union's leadership is retreating from the fight against climate change more generally.

What is coming up next

The “omnibus” measures: for climate campaigners, the clearest signal that von der Leyen is preparing to weaken Europe's climate rules significantly was the so-called omnibus package of measures, which was proposed alongside the “Clean Industrial Deal” at the end of February. When it was made public, activists protested outside the European Commission's headquarters. The proposals would weaken four pieces of climate legislation already adopted: the Taxonomy Regulation, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). The centre-left S&D group, which is the second largest in the European Parliament, has pledged to fight efforts to repeal the rules.

“We will not accept any backsliding on social and environmental standards, or on the policy targets that have been set,” German MEP Gabriele Bischoff declared, rather grandly. “We cannot now “hollow them out” in the name of simplification and put profit ahead of people and the planet.”

A renewable energy target: in the coming months the European Commission plans to put forward a proposal setting an as yet unspecified renewable energy target for 2040, which would accompany a new emissions reduction target of 90%. Jørgensen suggested that this target could also be 90 per cent, given the share of renewables in Europe's energy mix. Last year EU energy ministers held a first discussion on the plan; its main theme was the question of nuclear power, which caused disagreement and sharp argument.

Changes to how the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is applied: alongside the “Clean Industrial Deal” strategy, the Commission floated the idea of exempting small and medium-sized enterprises from the new CBAM carbon border levy that takes effect this year. The proposal is very much to be welcomed, particularly for smaller businesses. Although the levy was intended to apply to all companies, the change would exempt 80% of them. The Commission noted that the charge would still cover 97% of emissions. This proposal has proved less contentious than the wider legislative package. The centrist majority coalition in the European Parliament has indicated that it intends to leave the Commission's proposal untouched. According to some leaked draft plans, larger changes to CBAM may also be made.

The “old story” – Europe's energy independence plan: the European Commission is required to present an action plan (a so-called roadmap) for ending energy imports from Russia entirely, though it is not yet clear when it will be published. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen was tasked with drawing up the plan in his mission letter last year, and it was due to be presented as early as 26 March, but that date has again been changed.

Changes to gas storage: Euractiv reports that EU member states are considering lowering the 90% gas storage target – set after Russia's invasion of Ukraine – to 85%. Countries are drafting amendments to the Commission's proposal to extend the scheme by two years. They are also calling for the 1 November deadline each year to be scrapped. Some member states, including Germany, France and the Netherlands, are concerned that the rules are pushing prices up; market participants know full well that European buyers are obliged to purchase large volumes of gas by the set deadline.

A water resilience strategy: the Commission's new work programme also provides for a water resilience strategy to be brought forward in the second quarter of 2025. It “will take a source-to-sea approach and take account of the very different challenges facing Europe's various regions and sectors, in order to ensure that water sources are properly managed, that water scarcity and pollution are addressed and that the competitiveness of our water sector is enhanced”, the Commission said in a statement.

A brief review of the previous month

The biggest news in EU energy policy in February was the long-awaited Clean Industrial Deal. The Commission is billing it as the European Green Deal's “next step”, but climate campaigners are once again worried that it could turn into a “substitute” conceived as a gift to European industry and a scaling back of climate action, given the collapse of active climate policy under President Trump's administration in the United States. Industry associations welcomed the deal, unsurprisingly. Some non-governmental organisations working on climate issues directed most of their displeasure at the wider legislative package described above. It should be noted that activists nevertheless gave the “Clean Industrial Deal” a cautious welcome as an opportunity to give Europe's climate efforts fresh momentum.

A month ago the Commission published an Industrial Action Plan for the European automotive sector. It sets out measures to strengthen the sector's competitiveness and speed up the roll-out of electric vehicles. It follows on from the “strategic dialogue” held between EU legislators and carmakers in February. The plan extends the period within which carmakers must meet the new CO₂ emissions targets for their vehicle fleets from one year to three.

An event on energy security

On 24 and 25 April the International Energy Agency (IEA) is hosting a summit on the future of energy security in London, where discussions will cover how rising geopolitical tensions will affect the energy sector.
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