Main trends in the Nordic countries

In 2026, the forest property market in the Nordic countries – Sweden, Finland and Norway – is characterised by steady growth, driven by demand for sustainable resources and by biodiversity conservation requirements.

Price growth and stability: Forest land prices continue to rise moderately, helped by the status of forest as a “safe haven” asset amid inflation and global uncertainty. In Sweden, felling volumes are increasing in response to steady demand for timber.

Carbon sequestration and ecosystem services: Investors increasingly value forest not only as a source of timber, but also as a source of carbon credits. The value of forest is becoming multidimensional, encompassing carbon sequestration and biodiversity.

Stricter environmental standards: European Union regulation, such as the Nature Restoration Regulation, is increasing the pressure on intensive forestry, requiring owners to strike a balance between commercial activity and nature conservation.

Market characteristics in the Nordic countries

Sweden: Remains the region's leading market, with high efficiency and technological development. The market is dominated by large institutional investors, and interest in sustainable management is also growing among private owners.

Finland: Characterised by the strong influence of private forest owners – family holdings. In 2026, the Finnish market is showing heightened attention to energy wood and to the expansion of domestic processing capacity.

Regional differences: While the market in the Nordic countries is mature, in the countries of the Baltic Sea region, such as Latvia, domestic capital is more dominant, as foreign investor activity has currently declined.

Challenges in 2026

Climate risks: Growing forest fire risks and the spread of pests such as the spruce bark beetle call for new investment in monitoring and in creating more resilient forest stands.

Timber price fluctuations: Although demand is high, the largest export markets are experiencing periodic stagnation, which affects the profitability of forest properties in the short term.

The Baltics

In 2026, the Baltic forest property market will be characterised by a shift from intensive forestry towards the valuation of ecosystem services, influenced by stricter European Union environmental requirements and the dominance of domestic capital.

Looking back at the recent past, it should be noted that the largest deal between Södra and Bergvik Skog took place in 2018, when the Swedish company Södra acquired Bergvik Skog's forest properties in Latvia for 324 million euros. Currently the most topical and even larger deal is the sale of Södra's Baltic portfolio to the IKEA group (Ingka Investments), reported at the end of 2025.

Key facts about the deals:

The 2018 deal – Södra and Bergvik Skog. Södra bought 111,100 hectares of land, of which 80,300 hectares were productive forest land, making Södra the largest private forest owner in Latvia at the time. The deal covered not only the land, but also the company's entire operations and staff in Latvia.

The 2025/2026 development is Södra's exit from the Baltics. The buyer of the forest properties is Ingka Investments, a company linked to IKEA, and the value of the deal is approximately 720 million euros. In total, 153,000 hectares in the Baltics (including the forests previously bought from Bergvik Skog). With the completion of this deal, Ingka Investments consolidates its position as the largest private forest owner in the region, managing around 245,000 hectares in Latvia alone. The chain of deals shows how vast areas of forest in Latvia have passed from one large Swedish institutional investor to another in recent years, with a substantial increase in their market value – from 324 million in 2018 to 720 million for an expanded property portfolio in 2025. IKEA is not only a forest owner, but also one of the world's largest buyers of wood products. Controlling its own forests allows the group to stabilise the flow of raw material to its suppliers in the Baltics, reducing the impact of price fluctuations on the final product.

Since IKEA controls a large share of the resource, it may become harder and more expensive for smaller wood-processing companies outside the IKEA supply chain to buy roundwood on the open market. This could lead to further consolidation in the industry.

IKEA's requirement for 100% FSC- or PEFC-certified wood means that the market price of uncertified wood could fall, as it will have a narrower pool of buyers.

Main trends in the Baltics

In 2026, the trend will continue in which domestic investors are more active than foreign funds, for which the Baltic region no longer seems as attractive because of geopolitical risks and, possibly, lower returns, and also in view of the aforementioned “mega-deal” between IKEA and Södra. The price of forest is no longer based solely on cubic metres of timber; carbon sequestration and biodiversity carry increasing weight in valuations. After the sharp fluctuations of previous years, prices have stabilised. The highest prices per hectare are still recorded in Estonia, followed by Lithuania and Latvia.

Country-specific features and forecasts

Forecasts and challenges

The impact of nature conservation: Discussions about preserving “old forests” and about voluntary nature conservation programmes (for example, an equivalent of METSO in Latvia) are shaping restrictions on commercial activity.

Demand from the energy sector: Following the move away from neighbouring countries' energy resources, demand for firewood and wood chips remains high, creating competition with pulp producers.

Climate risks: In 2026, forest owners must budget for additional spending on monitoring for pests and for natural disasters caused by climate change.

In 2026, the Baltic forest property market is characterised by a shift from intensive forestry towards the valuation of ecosystem services, influenced by stricter European Union environmental requirements and, possibly, the growing dominance of domestic capital.