Foresters and farmers often wonder what their industry will look like in 10, 30 or 50 years. You might say: what rational person without any paranormal abilities can predict such a distant future, if we cannot even say precisely what will happen with the “coronavirus” and how powerful its “hit” to the global economy will be? A fair question!
But if the European high command is “mapping out” the future to 2050, we in Latvia cannot and must not fall behind! We certainly cannot! We must be leaders in at least some area, otherwise we are lagging far behind – both in terms of economic growth and when looking at the amount of money in our wallets.
The modern direction: everything that is green. And that is correct! In fact, the rest of Europe will have to try to keep up with Latvia, not the other way around! That is to say, Latvia “saddled” the “green wave” back in 1990, because not a trace remains of all kinds of “non-green” (read: polluting) factories from those days. Furthermore, the new landowners have successfully implemented “greening measures”: since 1990, more than 200 000 hectares of former agricultural land have become overgrown. Yes, in recent years the extent of this area has shrunk again! But!!! Not everyone is a greedy person who wants the land not to lie idle, but to be productive! Moreover, so that the crown of nature (creation) – man – does not interfere with natural “greening” processes, many jobs have disappeared (read: been liquidated) in the countryside, as a result of which the number of two-legged creatures has fallen significantly not only in the countryside, but across the whole country. A classic once remarked: “the forest is an aggressive environment that eventually takes over everything it can.” Of course, with the changing of generations and landowners, the land has increasingly ended up in the hands of farmers (in the truest sense of the word), and they (the landowners) want to use it as a means of production. But!!!! In many people's interests, this action is unacceptable.
Examples?! Which would you like? Forest owners want more freedom, but they hear: “You must not be given that!” It does not matter that in Scandinavia, the competitors of Latvian forest owners have completely free hands! What is that to anyone? A trifle! Yet in Latvia, even attempts to get slightly closer to competitors are equated to various “crimes” against everything (everything!!!!!) that is alive. Even though the “aggressive forest” has “swallowed” more than one former field of beetroot, potatoes and rye, according to data from smart and knowledgeable “institutes”, forest areas in Latvia have decreased annually. There are said to be only 38% left, while local “fools” operate with figures of some 52% (even 53% and 54%).
The fact that “some other” organisation is prepared to value forest areas at just under 54% means nothing. For city dwellers, both in Latvia and in other countries, such figures allow them to think or “greenly dream”: “They have cut everything down in Latvia and there is nothing left to cut!” Oh, this beautiful, green dream! (A dream of a desert!)
In the chaos of the last few years, few are interested in scientific arguments, because the self-composed axiom: “the greedy want to cut more” outweighs the scientists' argument: about 12 million m3 of timber is harvested in Latvia annually, while the natural growth is 26 million m3. Arguments are “neither here nor there”!
For those who believe in conspiracy theories, there is always a ready answer: competitors have made an effort to “work” with the relevant characters, because how else can one explain the paradox: the fewer people there are, the worse the situation for nature… The state of biodiversity is said to have deteriorated, whereas in “countries where the forest has not 'aggressively incorporated former agricultural land' and smelly factories are in operation, the state of biodiversity has not deteriorated”. Miracles of wonders, one cannot grasp such a thing with a sound mind!
In such a situation, forecasting the future 20-30 years ahead is akin to fortune-telling, especially in the context of achieving the modern, yet still incomprehensible, buzzword – climate neutrality. Why?! No one knows how to achieve this climate neutrality. Clever things are said about various percentages that must be reduced, thus creating new questions. For example, if the amount of emissions in Latvia has decreased by more than 50% since 1990, why should we run ahead of the rest of Europe? In many countries, one can only dream of such volumes of reduction as have been achieved in Latvia?!!!? But…
Is there a possibility that other countries will not be in a hurry to follow our example and ideologically curtail their economies? Time will tell, because at least for now there has been no word of plans to close down manufacturing plants, except for the coal mining industry. In Europe, there is talk of evaluating all sectors and “only then will the “to-be-closed” (to-be-liquidated) plants be found”. Meanwhile, in Latvia, as diligent pioneers should, there is talk of how to reduce the remaining CO2 emissions in the two (there simply aren't any others left) harmful industries – agriculture and transport. As the number of people living in our country is falling, it seems logical: why would a “handful” need such a large transport fleet and developed agriculture? Radical changes could be organised in both CO2-sinning sectors, the potential consequences of which no one wants to talk about loudly, because it might “agitate the people” who use their brains for thinking, rather than blindly submitting to the one and only correct opinion. Perhaps wealthy foreigners will be able to continue everything as before, but will buy a green indulgence for a small but fair fee. A bad idea? No, a very good one – those who have found themselves on the right side of the “front” will be able to earn and warm their hands!
If cattle are indeed to be among the main culprits of climate change, it may happen that in 2045-2049, a 100-year-old past will repeat itself, only with a different undertone. Specifically, after the war, around 1945-1949, during the Soviet forced collectivisation boom, you could only keep 10 chickens and one cow in your stable in the countryside. Other livestock (above the permitted quota) had to be hidden from the eyes of the inspectors, otherwise one faced quite significant “problems”. Eyewitnesses of those times say that “above-quota” cows and chickens were hidden (kept) in the nearby forest. Will this scenario come true and will the rarely encountered rural residents have no cows on paper, but “de facto” a little cow will be hidden in a dugout or other hideout? Time will tell! But perhaps Latvia will already have a completely different kind of agriculture and forestry, where everything that can grow will grow, but the axe and saw will be on the list of enemies. It will be the greenest country in the world, whose example all progressive humanity will be able to follow.