The latest report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), The State of the World's Forests 2026, highlights that by the middle of the century, the world may require an additional 20–40 million hectares of productive economic or commercial forest land. Forecasts suggest that due to population growth and a booming bioeconomy, demand for wood products will increase by a third by 2050. The report's authors point out that it will be impossible to bridge the structural gap between consumption and sustainable supply through natural forests alone.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that since 1990, the world's forest area suitable for timber production has shrunk by almost 30 million hectares. Although planted forest areas have increased by 120 million hectares in the same period, their rate of growth has slowed over the last decade. Particularly significant problems are expected in sub-Saharan* Africa, where fuelwood accounts for as much as 90% of total timber volume and where, by 2030, more than 300,000 hectares of new forests would need to be planted annually. The same applies to commercial timber, which would require an additional 33 million hectares of highly productive plantations to meet demand.
The importance of plantations and the bioeconomy in the future
Experts urge caution regarding intensively managed monocultures, as they cannot be ecologically considered as restored forest stands, and the cost of establishing artificial plantations is almost six times higher than naturally assisted forest regeneration. Japan is cited as an example of uneven resource distribution, where post-war planting in recent decades has led to a situation where half of the planted forests are over 50 years old, exceeding local builders' demand for cedar and cypress timber.
Total global timber harvest volume reached 3.86 billion cubic metres in 2023, consisting of roughly equal parts roundwood and fuelwood. Although global deforestation rates have decreased slightly in recent years, the expansion of new forests has also slowed. China remains a key player in the timber trade, importing billions of dollars worth of timber from Russia and New Zealand in 2025 while exporting finished products to the US and Australia. FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu emphasises that the organisation's future priority will be sustainable production, which includes not only agriculture but also forestry. During the UN's planned Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (starting in 2027), the organisation will aim to address these issues while mitigating the risks of poorly managed and ecologically unsuitable tree planting.
Inevitable resource shortages and conflicts of interest
Global population growth and the transition to a green bioeconomy—such as replacing fossil resources with wood biomass in industry—are creating a rapid surge in demand that natural ecosystems cannot meet without irreversible damage to biodiversity. Tree plantations are a necessary solution to address the timber deficit, but intensive monocultures, unfortunately, do not restore a fully functional forest ecosystem, and their establishment is financially expensive, up to six times more so than natural regeneration. This requires a balance between carefully planned investment and ecological risks.
While some regions of the planet, such as Africa, face a shortage of timber for daily needs and energy, others are seeing resource “ageing” or even oversupply in local markets. This points to the need for a globally coordinated, sustainable forestry policy to ensure that forest expansion does not happen haphazardly or in an environmentally damaging way.
A “deep chasm” is currently forming in the situation regarding the world's forests, where, for example, the aforementioned sub-Saharan region and Northern Europe with the Baltics are at completely different, even opposite, stages of development. This contrast vividly shows that in one part of the world, forests are a critical and threatened resource for daily survival, while in the other, they are a stably managed pillar of economic prosperity and energy independence, as is the case here in Latvia.
In sub-Saharan Africa, the energy crisis is directly linked to deforestation and ecological degradation. In this region, nearly 90% of all timber harvested is used as firewood and charcoal. Because people lack access to modern energy infrastructure, gas, or electricity, millions of households are forced to consume local forest resources and literally “burn them” for cooking and heating. The immense pressure on forests creates a vicious cycle—the population is growing rapidly, the demand for energy is increasing, and natural forests are consequently being depleted much faster than they can regenerate. Although hundreds of thousands of hectares of new commercially viable forest should be planted annually in this region by the end of the decade, weak economies, a lack of investment, high costs of plantation establishment, and local corruption are hindering the achievement of these goals.
Northern Europe and Latvia – resource abundance and sustainability
The situation is entirely different in the Nordic countries, where, for example, Finland and Sweden are among the most forested countries in the world, with over 60% of their land area covered by forests. In these regions, strictly regulated forestry has been implemented for decades, where several new trees are planted for every one cut down—just as we do here in Latvia. This ensures a constant increase in overall timber stock and forest area.
Latvia is firmly positioned at the “green peak” of the European Union, as approximately 54% of our country's territory is covered by forests. Since the 1990s, the total timber stock of Latvian forests has increased by more than 200 million cubic metres, reaching impressive figures. The main difference from the situation in Africa lies in the fact that in Latvia and Northern Europe, timber is not consumed for simple burning, which degrades the environment. Instead, wood biomass is rationally diverted to modern district heating, guaranteeing energy security and the production of high-value export goods. While Africa struggles with an acute resource deficit and energy poverty, Latvia and its neighbours prove that with smart planning, it is possible for forestry to make a significant contribution to the economy while preserving natural values for future generations.
The situation in Africa and global forest certification systems
The small areas of FSC and PEFC certified forests in Africa, compared to the total forest-covered territory, are direct evidence of the local energy crisis and forest management model. While forest certification covers very significant areas in Northern Europe and Latvia and has become a market standard, the situation in Africa is dramatically different.
The total forest area of Africa is approximately 637 million hectares. Of this, economic or commercial forests account for about 290 million hectares. Data shows that only about 10.7 million hectares are FSC certified, while the PEFC system is only beginning to develop in tropical regions, for example, through regional schemes in Gabon. As a result, less than 2% of Africa's total forest area and only ~1% of its rainforests are certified.
The firewood economy and illegal logging
FSC and PEFC certificates were developed for international industrial timber and paper supply chains. However, as is well known, 90% of Africa's forest harvest is “consumed” by firewood and charcoal for local use. A local resident in sub-Saharan Africa who cuts down a tree for firewood to cook a meal does not need FSC labelling, and no one will pay for it in the local informal market. Since most forest use takes place outside global trade frameworks, there is simply no economic application for certification there.
International studies suggest that in some African regions, 50–90% of timber circulation comes from informal or illegal channels. It is impossible to certify illegally harvested timber because FSC and PEFC require strict traceability and legality from the standing tree to the finished product. As long as a large informal market and a weak legal environment exist, sustainable management practices cannot compete with cheap, uncontrolled timber.
Africa's governance environment – costs and bureaucracy
The successful implementation of certification is closely linked to the quality of state governance, legal security, and clear property rights. In Africa, approximately 94% of forests are owned by the state, with the private sector managing only ~6%. State institutions often lack the capacity, funding, and political will to maintain complex and expensive certification processes. Conversely, the PEFC system, for example, which relies on the mutual recognition of national standards, developed rapidly in Europe precisely because national laws were already historically well-organised there. In Africa, many countries still lack national forest sustainability standards that PEFC could accredit.
Certification and annual audits are an expensive process. Large European and Latvian logging companies or cooperatives can cover these costs quite easily because certified timber opens doors to solvent European and US markets, where a higher price is paid for it. For African companies, the initial investments and strict requirements—especially regarding environmental and social standards—are often a financially unbearable burden. If a company does not export its products to Europe, it has no economic incentive to cover these costs.
Certification “oases”
Currently, FSC and PEFC operate as “oases” in the desert in Africa—they successfully cover select large, exporting companies in the Congo Basin rainforests or South African industrial plantations. Until Africa's energy crisis is resolved and residents have alternatives to firewood, very large areas of forest will remain outside any formal and sustainable forest certification control.
* Sub-Saharan Africa is a geographical and cultural-historical term for the part of the African continent that lies south of the Sahara Desert. This region covers most of the continent, including nearly 50 countries with a vast diversity of nature, languages, and cultures.
Sources: International forest certification systems and global forest industry information sites, as well as the FAO’s “The State of the World's Forests 2026”.