In April, price movements in Latvia were driven mainly by the seasonal rise in the cost of clothing and footwear, as well as by still-high fuel prices, while the overall increase in prices was partly held back by a fall in the cost of services and a slight decline in food prices.
According to the latest data published by the Central Statistical Bureau, consumer prices in April 2026 rose by 0.6% compared with March. Prices for goods rose by 1.0%, while prices for services fell by 0.3%.
April typically brings a moderate rise in consumer prices, driven chiefly by the seasonal increase in the cost of clothing and footwear. This year, too, that group of goods had the greatest influence, but unlike in previous years fuel prices also remained a significant factor, staying high after their sharp rise in March. This was largely due to the rapid increase in oil prices on world markets amid geopolitical tension. At the same time, prices for services fell overall, as the rise in the cost of accommodation services was more than offset by falling prices for package holidays and passenger air transport. The overall increase in prices continued to be held back by moderate movement in food prices as well – the price level for food and non-alcoholic beverages fell in April, the lowest April figure since 2018.
Prices of the goods included in the low-price basket rose slightly overall month on month, driven mainly by increases in the vegetable segment and in cheese and pork. At the same time, compared with May 2025 they are still 0.5% lower. Overall, movement in food prices indicates that the memorandum initiative continues to help ease pressure on food inflation. A comparison across the Baltic states confirms this – since the memorandum was introduced in Latvia, the overall rise in consumer prices has been more moderate than in the neighbouring countries, while prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages have actually fallen over the period. In Estonia and Lithuania, meanwhile, food prices have risen, pointing to relatively lower price pressure in Latvia.
It should also be noted that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East kept uncertainty on world energy markets high in April as well. Although Brent oil prices became more volatile over the month and fell at times, they remained substantially higher than at the start of the year. This continued to keep fuel prices in Latvia high and created additional cost pressure in transport, logistics and certain service sectors. Given that the effect of energy prices on the economy usually feeds through gradually, further pass-through of costs to other groups of goods and services remains possible in the coming months.
In the goods sector, the greatest upward influence in April came from the rise in the cost of clothing and footwear. Prices in this group rose by 7.5%, which pushed the overall consumer price level up by 0.4 percentage points. In April, as in other years, the new spring–summer collections came into the shops in earnest once the winter sales had ended. At the same time, the increase in the cost of clothing and footwear was more moderate this year than in the previous two years.
Fuel prices also continued to exert significant upward influence, rising by 8.7% in April and pushing the overall consumer price level up by 0.4 percentage points. The increases for diesel and petrol were similar, but the rise in diesel prices had the greater effect.
On world oil markets, the price of Brent crude rose by roughly 3% over the course of April, although there were sharp swings during the month. Price movements were driven mainly by developments in the military conflict in the Middle East, concerns about prolonged supply disruption and restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices climbed sharply at the start of the month, with Brent reaching 110 US dollars a barrel, before falling back as hopes grew for a ceasefire and a resumption of talks between the United States and Iran. The supply situation nevertheless remained unstable, and prices rose again at the end of the month to their highest level since mid-2022. This was driven by protracted disagreements in the talks, the effective restriction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and concerns about a prolonged reduction in global oil supply.
The greatest downward influence in April came from a 0.2% fall in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, which lowered the overall consumer price level by 0.05 percentage points. The decline was driven mainly by falling prices for butter, fresh fruit and dried, salted or smoked meat. The most significant upward influence, meanwhile, came from rising prices for fresh vegetables, cheese and pork. World food prices continued to rise in April for the third month in a row – by 1.6% – and were 2.0% higher than a year earlier. The overall increase was driven by rising prices for vegetable oils, meat and cereals, which outweighed falling prices for sugar and dairy products. Vegetable oil prices rose the fastest in April, reaching their highest level since July 2022. The increase was fuelled by higher oil prices, demand for biofuel production and supply constraints in certain regions. Meat prices reached a new all-time high, chiefly because of higher prices for beef and pork. Cereal prices rose moderately – wheat prices were affected by drought risks in the United States and Australia as well as high fertiliser costs, while maize prices rose on seasonally tighter supply and steady demand for ethanol. Dairy prices fell, mainly because of declines in butter and cheese prices driven by abundant milk supply in Europe and Oceania. Sugar prices fell as production prospects improved in the main producing countries and the new harvest began in Brazil.
Prices for services fell by 0.3% overall in April, lowering the overall consumer price level by 0.1 percentage points. Movements in service prices were largely determined by seasonal fluctuations in the travel and leisure segments. The greatest downward influence came from falling prices for package holidays and passenger air transport following their sharp rise in March, as demand eased after the spring break and holiday period. At the same time, the greatest upward influence came from the rise in the cost of accommodation services, driven by increased tourism and travel as the spring season got under way.
In other groups of goods and services, price fluctuations last month had no significant effect on the overall price level.
In April 2026, consumer prices were 2.9% higher than in April of the previous year. Average annual inflation stood at 3.5%.
Price developments in Latvia will continue to be shaped largely by fluctuations in energy and food prices on world markets, as well as by geopolitical events and the state of the global economy. At the same time, inflation in Latvia will continue to be affected by supply-side factors – revisions to taxes and regulated tariffs – and by the demand side, driven by rising wages. Given the high level of uncertainty on energy markets and the possible pass-through of costs to other sectors, average annual inflation in Latvia in 2026 could be in the range of 3-4%.