After a politically turbulent 2024, tropical rainforests too will be more exposed to shifting geopolitical priorities. Decisions taken in centres of power such as the United States and Brazil are likely to ripple far beyond those countries' borders, affecting forest conservation efforts and the vital role forests play in mitigating climate change.
Donald Trump's return to the US presidency is a potentially serious problem, even a challenge, for what is known as global environmental governance. His administration's position on climate matters during his previous term included withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, a substantial reduction in support for international nature conservation, and changes to the regulation of the country's extractive industries. In Trump's second term, the United States is likely to retreat still further from multilateral climate agreements and biodiversity initiatives.
The consequences of such actions are broader and more serious than a reduction in funding. Historically, the United States has wielded considerable diplomatic influence to promote environmental protection through trade agreements and foreign aid. Potential changes in governance may embolden other countries to "soften" the commitments they have made, particularly in regions where environmental and economic interests frequently collide. If Washington does not apply pressure, international competition for resource extraction may intensify, threatening fragile ecosystems.
At the corporate level, the political signals from US President Donald Trump's administration could weaken private sector commitments to deforestation-free supply chains. The Deforestation Action Tracker study carried out by Global Canopy highlights that only 10% of institutional investors that have made climate commitments have developed robust policies to prevent deforestation. Declining government support for environmental initiatives could lead some companies to downgrade the priority they give to sustainability targets, further weakening efforts to combat deforestation.
Brazilian President Lula da Silva faces a series of problems in Latin America. Although his administration has achieved a considerable reduction in deforestation by restoring environmental protection programmes, opposition to this at state and congressional level remains immense. Many local and regional leaders in the Amazon basin, elected on a platform of curbing environmental requirements, are ready to obstruct the implementation of da Silva's programmes. These disagreements could hold back progress on initiatives aimed at curbing illegal logging and mining, incursions into Indigenous territories, and agricultural expansion into tropical forest areas.
Brazil's domestic problems are compounded by international economic pressure. Possible shifts in US trade policy, including the introduction of tariffs or changes in commodity supply, may redirect agricultural demand towards Latin America. Increased demand for soya and beef – the main drivers of deforestation – may encourage a wider "encroachment" into tropical forests, reducing the chances of keeping these forest areas intact.
Global environmental systems also face a range of headwinds. The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), long regarded as the gold standard for corporate climate action, is grappling with internal disputes and public criticism. Although SBTi's reputation remains considerable, it is weakening at the same time as scepticism grows about the role of environmental policy in securing economic prosperity. Such doubts may discourage both corporations and countries from adopting ambitious climate targets.
As the international political situation changes, rainforest regions are likely to feel the effects of shifting priorities. A US administration that attaches less importance to environmental matters could weaken global cooperation on climate and biodiversity goals, while local political dynamics, for example in Brazil, could create complications. This year will test the resilience of existing conservation mechanisms and the readiness of international organisations to protect the world's rainforests in an era of competing priorities.
Macroeconomic trends and developments in 2025 may also affect rainforest regions
Global economic forces will play a decisive role in determining how tropical forests fare in 2025. From commodity prices to currency fluctuations, these dynamics will affect the pace of deforestation and the prospects for forest conservation.
According to World Bank forecasts, commodity prices are expected to fall in 2025. Historically, high agricultural and forestry commodity prices stimulate large-scale deforestation by encouraging capital investment in industrial plantations, infrastructure and export-oriented agriculture. A sustained fall in prices, by contrast, could slow the expansion of agricultural land. The response will depend on domestic economic policy and inflation, a persistent problem in many forest-rich countries. In Brazil's Amazon region, inflation has fuelled speculative deforestation of land as a hedge against rising prices. Subsidised loans to agricultural businesses further shield agricultural expansion from tighter monetary policy.
Currency dynamics also affect other deforestation-linked commodities – soya, beef and palm oil, which are priced in US dollars. A strong dollar increases the profitability of these exports, encouraging land conversion. The weakening of the Brazilian real (Brazil's currency), for example, has historically been associated with a sharp rise in deforestation, as agricultural exports become more competitive.
Governments under fiscal strain may prioritise resource extraction in order to stabilise their economies. This often comes at the expense of environmental protection. The trend is reinforced by the pressure of dollar-denominated debt, which encourages more intensive logging and mining in forested regions. Whether forest areas are preserved or their exploitation instead intensifies will depend on how countries manage economic pressures.
COP30 puts the Amazon basin in the spotlight
The 30th United Nations climate change conference (COP30), to be held in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025, could mark a turning point in international climate policy. The summit will take place in the Amazon basin region for the first time, and will highlight the region's dual significance – both as a global climate stabiliser and as ground zero for deforestation and biodiversity loss. Given the unmet deforestation commitments and the growing impact on the climate, the outcomes of COP30 may determine the direction of environmental protection measures for years to come.
COP30 gives Brazil, under President Lula da Silva, an opportunity to reclaim a leading position in climate diplomacy. Since his return, the country has reduced logging by restoring conservation programmes and afforesting degraded land. The choice of Belém as the conference venue underlines the Amazon's importance in global climate discussions and the profound threat facing the Amazon basin.
The summit will coincide with the first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement, which will assess progress towards limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Countries are expected to submit updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs), with the main focus on narrowing the gap between current policy and the measures required. Discussions will be dominated by the question of finance, particularly in connection with the "Baku to Belém Roadmap", which aims to mobilise 1.3 trillion US dollars for climate mitigation and adaptation measures in developing countries. Meeting these targets is hugely important in regions such as the Amazon, where economic pressure drives deforestation.
Climate finance has historically fallen short. Developed countries have often failed to meet their financial commitments. Disputes over a fair distribution of the financial burden are still ongoing. The mechanisms put in place, such as the Loss and Damage Fund established at COP27, will test the resolve of the wealthiest countries to support the most vulnerable ones.
Geopolitical tension and shifting economic priorities complicate the situation further. The largest emitters, such as the United States, China and the European Union, must reconcile their policies with developing countries' demands for a fairer approach to climate. Brazil and Indonesia still find it difficult to balance national economic interests with global conservation goals. Trade pressures and competition for resources make efforts to reach agreement more difficult still.
Targets for reducing deforestation will remain central to proceedings. Brazil's recent successes offer hope, but the problems are serious. Tropical forests are still threatened by agricultural expansion, infrastructure projects and illegal resource extraction. This is further aggravated by weak enforcement of the rules in force. The COP30 discussions must address these systemic factors while promoting sustainable alternatives.
As this century's twenties will be the decisive decade for climate action, COP30 will offer an opportunity to rebalance global efforts. That, however, is an assumption based on probability. There is much doubt about the outcomes of COP30. The results will test the ability to turn promises into real action, which will affect both the Amazon basin and the global climate agenda.
Drought in the Amazon basin
The great drought that began in mid-2023 has clearly demonstrated the Amazon region's vulnerability to climate change. Record low water levels in rivers, sharply rising temperatures and devastating forest fires have disrupted ecosystems and affected local communities.
The effects of the drought are also apparent in declining biodiversity, as aquatic species die off in large numbers. Disrupted fish migration threatens local food systems. Human communities are being cut off, as the drought has curtailed navigation, while agricultural yields and hydropower generation have fallen considerably.
El Niño events are often associated with drought in the Amazon region, yet experts believe the 2023–2024 crisis was largely caused by climate change. Rising greenhouse gas concentrations have increased the likelihood of extreme drought, weakening forests' resilience and their capacity to absorb carbon. Forecasts of a "weakened" El Niño year in 2025 may limit the dry spells usually associated with El Niño in the Amazon and South-East Asia. It is to be hoped that the "weakened" El Niño factor will prove a potential lifeline for sensitive regions this year and that disaster will be averted.
The Amazon's dire situation reflects another, broader trend – tropical forests in South-East Asia and the Congo basin are experiencing prolonged drought, creating the threat of more frequent and more intense fires.
The European Union's Deforestation Regulation is also a risk factor
The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), adopted in 2022 as a significant part of the policy response to global deforestation, was officially postponed by one year at the end of December 2024, giving producers and importers extra time to adapt to the regulation's strict requirements. Although the postponement changes the immediate timetable, the EUDR is still set to reshape global supply chains and trading practices.
The regulation "targets" deforestation-linked commodities – coffee, timber, beef, cocoa, palm oil and soya – requiring companies to ensure that the goods they offer are "deforestation-free". Geographical data collection and mandatory due diligence are central to demonstrating compliance. Penalties for breaches vary, from fines to bans on trading the products concerned. The EUDR aims to reduce the incentive to deforest and to encourage investment in forest restoration and sustainable land management by requiring sustainable practices.
The EUDR faces difficulties. The cost of demonstrating compliance may cause problems for smallholders in producer countries. There is a considerable risk that deforestation-linked commodities will be diverted to less regulated markets. Verification based on satellite monitoring may prove uneven across regions, while trade tensions may be triggered by perceptions of national protectionism.
With the EU preparing to review the regulation, 2025 will test whether the EUDR can withstand pressure to water down its provisions, delay implementation, or abandon it altogether. The outcome may determine the future course of global efforts to combat deforestation. The success or failure of the EUDR will also determine whether coherent trade rules linked to sustainability goals can be delivered on a global scale.
A critical period for the voluntary carbon market
2025 will be a critical time for the voluntary carbon market, as new methodologies, changing rules and persistent scepticism will set its trajectory. The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) has approved three methodologies under the Core Carbon Principles (CCP) in order to build confidence in REDD+ credits. These methodologies, including the ART TREES standard and two Verra schemes, are expected to issue substantial volumes of CCP-labelled credits by early 2025, potentially creating fresh confidence in a market whose value fell by 61% in 2023.
REDD+ credits, which are aimed at reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, have attracted criticism over claims about carbon absorption. The ICVCM assessment process, which requires jurisdictional baselines and robust social safeguards, is intended to allay these concerns.
The wider market outlook remains mixed. S&P Global reports that demand for carbon credits is likely to grow, although REDD+ prices may stagnate given problems with uptake. Corporate interest in nature-related solutions is increasing, driven by various initiatives: the Working Group on Nature-related Financial Disclosures. However, traders surveyed by S&P Global expressed doubts about price increases, noting that market dynamics will depend on project quality rather than labelling.
Progress on applying Article 6 of the Paris Agreement complicates the picture further. Bilateral agreements under Article 6.2, such as Singapore's partnership with Papua New Guinea, point to the potential of international carbon trading. The global framework under Article 6.4, however, is still being developed. Issues such as corresponding adjustments have yet to be resolved.
As the market develops, its success depends on maintaining high integrity while fostering mutual trust between developers, buyers and regulators. Whether REDD+ methodologies can overcome past controversies will be the defining question of 2025.
Some conclusions
The problems facing climate policy, nature conservation requirements and the world's tropical forests in 2025 are varied. They are shaped by geopolitical change, economic factors, the legal framework and climate impacts. The year ahead will test the resilience of these ecosystems and of the policies designed to protect them in an era of competing priorities. In any case, we can see that these matters are being decided on "other battlefields" and not here in Latvia, where both nature conservation and the sustainable management of land and forests are given the highest consideration. Those who do not see this would do well to look at what is happening elsewhere in the world, and how (and whether) it is happening, rather than looking for artificially created problems here at home.