According to World Bank statistics covering every country in the world, over the past 20 years the USA, Japan and the European Union have lost the global competition for industrial output volumes and their location.
The world's most industrially developed country is no longer the USA; since 2011 it has been China. India and Russia, meanwhile, have already overtaken the United Kingdom in terms of industrial development and now trail only Germany. While the new US administration has recognised that current trends pose a threat to US global security, the EU's ruling political elite continues to pursue policies whose consequences are the shrinking of EU industrial production and the European Union's global dependence on supplies of industrial output from what were once developing countries. Most countries in the world compile detailed statistics on the distribution of gross domestic product (GDP) value added. Data on total GDP are available for almost every country. Some countries do not cooperate with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and do not supply their information. Even so, a sufficiently accurate figure for any country's GDP can be calculated if information is known about that country's population, area, level of education and technological competence, land use, mineral resources and their extraction, electricity generation volumes, the split between value created in agriculture, industry, trade and other service sectors, and so on. The volume of foreign trade – exports and imports – and the breakdown of exports and imports by sector is available even for countries that do not supply their statistical information to UN institutions. However, a highly detailed GDP structure (how value added is distributed between different sectors) cannot always be determined with sufficient precision. Historically, GDP was calculated by adding up the value newly created in agriculture, industry and the service sector. As a result, such information is included in the statistical reports of practically every country in the world. Yet different countries interpret differently what counts as services. Construction may be treated either as production or as the provision of a service, and so on. Electricity generation may be counted as production up to the moment the current is fed into the grid. The distribution of electricity from hydroelectric and thermal power plants all the way to the end user, on the other hand, can be viewed either as a service or, alternatively, one may consider that the end product of generation is the amount of current received by the consumer, and so on. Electricity transmission and distribution may be recorded in different countries either as part of production or as a service. In compiling data on all the world's countries, the World Bank follows a single standard, yet it is not always possible to separate services precisely from production, so the data are sometimes not mutually comparable and are not placed in the public databases of the World Bank and the IMF.
The most widely available data are those for industry together with construction, whereas data for manufacturing alone are unavailable for several even relatively large countries, or are unavailable for very long periods. It should be noted that in many cases historical data do exist, but they can only be found in the statistical yearbooks of the countries concerned or in the World Bank's printed statistical publications (on paper) and have not been entered into digital statistical databases. Data not included in the World Bank's digital database were therefore obtained from the World Bank's compendium of world country statistics World Tables 1993, Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993.
Data on the value created by industry and construction are not available at all for several countries (North Korea, Tuvalu and others), but since these countries' influence on the world economy is insignificant, this does not materially change the ranking in the tables. There are also countries for which detailed GDP breakdown data are unavailable for certain years. The World Bank database lacks much historical economic data (from before 1991) on countries that gained independence after 1991, and so on. Overall, from roughly 2004 onwards data are available for 95% of all the world's countries, though there are exceptions. Among countries with medium-sized economies, Armenia was not included in the calculations, as it lacks detailed GDP data for the first decade of the 21st century, and so on. In compiling the tables, data for 2004 were unavailable for approximately 10% of all the world's countries (mainly African, Caribbean and Oceanian countries). In place of 2004 data, figures for the nearest year within a five-year span were used. Where data for 2023 were unavailable for a country, figures for the nearest possible year within the past four years were included in the tables instead. Among the world's hundred largest countries, 2023 data were unavailable only for Canada. The data given for Canada in the tables are for 2021.
It was difficult to use data on GDP at constant prices (for example, 2015 prices), because detailed data on the GDP breakdown at constant 2015 prices are unavailable for the USA but are available for China, and so on.
China overtakes the USA
Until 2010 the world leader in total output in industry and construction was the USA. In 1971 the combined output of US industry and agriculture (433 billion US dollars) at current market prices exceeded the combined output of industry and construction in China (42 billion US dollars) more than tenfold, even though China's population (841 million) was at that time four times larger than that of the USA (208 million).
This means that only 55 years ago the USA produced 40 times more industrial goods and buildings per head of population than China. As recently as 1991, China's combined industrial and construction output lagged ten times behind that of the USA. However, China's move to incorporate a market economy into the national economic system, and China's integration into global trade, fostered considerable growth in China's industrial output. Over the ten years from 1990, China's combined industrial and construction output grew 3.7-fold, reaching 552 billion US dollars in 2000. Over the same period, US industrial and construction output grew 1.4-fold, reaching 2,302 billion US dollars in 2000.
Consequently, by 2000 China's combined industrial and construction output was already around a quarter (24%) of the US figure. Over the following ten years, China's combined industrial and construction output grew 5.1-fold, reaching 2,830 billion US dollars in 2010. US industrial and construction output, meanwhile, grew 1.25-fold and stood at 2,900 billion US dollars in 2010, only slightly ahead of China. In 2011 China's combined industrial and construction output overtook that of the USA. China's growth continued, but at a slower pace. From 2010 to 2020, China's combined industrial and construction output grew 1.96-fold, reaching 5,535 billion US dollars in 2020. US industrial and construction output over the same period grew 1.26-fold, reaching 3,655 billion US dollars in 2020. By the end of the 2010s the US administration had realised that, if the trends continued, the US shortfall would only grow, and so during Donald Trump's first presidency the USA began implementing protectionist measures (customs tariffs, restrictions on the activities of China's largest IT companies and so on) in order to curb China's growth and promote US growth. The gap in total industrial and construction output between the USA and China peaked in 2021, when China's combined industrial and construction output exceeded that of the USA by 57.3%. However, between 2020 and 2024 US growth rates in industry and construction (+38%) already outpaced China's growth rates (+24%). As a result, by 2024 the gap between China and the USA in industrial and construction output volumes had narrowed. In 2024 China's combined industrial and construction output exceeded US industrial and construction output by only 35%.
Although in terms of total GDP the USA was and remains considerably ahead of the European Union, when only combined industrial and construction output over the past 35 years is counted, the volumes have been fairly similar.
From time to time the EU overtook the USA, and at other moments the reverse was true. In 2008 the EU's combined industrial and construction output was 27% larger than that of the USA. Unfortunately, the policies pursued after 2015 substantially undermined the European Union's industrial and construction output potential. Since 2015 the European Union has consistently lagged behind the USA in combined industrial and construction output. In 2024 the total US industrial and construction output was already 18% larger than that of the EU.
India overtakes France
The EU's largest member states face significant competition not only from China, but also from rapidly growing industry in the largest developing countries. In 1971 the industrial and construction value added created in France was 3.2 times greater than that in India. In 1991 France's industrial and construction output was already 4.2 times larger than India's combined industrial and construction output. What is more, India's population (983 million) in 1991 was 16.7 times larger than that of France (59 million). From 1991 to 2008, India's combined industrial and construction output grew 5.2-fold, reaching 373 billion US dollars in 2008. France's combined industrial and construction output over the same period grew 1.8-fold, reaching 545 billion US dollars in 2008. Over the ten years after 2008, France's combined industrial and construction output declined in waves, and France managed to exceed its 2008 combined industrial and construction output at actual prices only in 2023. India's combined industrial and construction output, meanwhile, became larger than France's in 2010. It continued to increase, and by 2024 India's combined industrial and construction output was already 1.7 times larger than that of France.
Although Germany's combined industrial and construction output almost doubled over the past 35 years (624 billion US dollars in 1991 and 1,204 billion US dollars in 2024), the increase lagged considerably behind the growth that developing countries were able to achieve. As recently as 1992, Germany's combined industrial and construction output (691 billion US dollars) was larger than the combined industrial and construction output of all Latin American and all Arab countries put together (606 billion US dollars). In 2005 the total industrial and construction output of all Latin American countries overtook Germany's output volumes, and by 2024 all the Latin American countries together were producing and building 1.84 times more than Germany. In 2008 the total industrial and construction output of all Arab countries already overtook Germany's output volumes, and by 2024 all the Arab countries together were producing and building 1.3 times more than Germany. Up to 2008 the United Kingdom demonstrated significant growth rates in industrial and construction output. Britain was able to demonstrate any appreciable increase above its 2008 total industrial and construction output only after leaving the European Union. Separation from the European Union had a very favourable effect on the growth of Britain's industrial and construction output.
From 2020 to 2024, Britain's industrial and construction output grew 1.3-fold. Despite that, in 2023 the United Kingdom's industrial and construction output (589 billion US dollars) lagged behind not only India (921 billion US dollars) but also Russia (630 billion US dollars).
Sanctions and Russian industry
According to statistics compiled by the World Bank, the sanctions imposed by the EU after Russia's aggression against Ukraine did not reduce Russia's industrial and construction output. In 2022 Russia's industrial and construction output was 27% larger than in the last pre-war year (2021); in 2023 it was 8% larger than in 2021, and in 2024 it was 15% larger than in 2021. Over the past 35 years Brazil has quadrupled (more precisely, increased 4.2-fold) its industrial and construction output, while Saudi Arabia has increased its ninefold. In 2024 Brazil's industrial and construction output was only 24% smaller than Britain's, while Saudi Arabia's industrial and construction output trailed Britain's by only 9%. The industrial and construction output figures included in the tables and charts are at actual market prices rather than constant prices, so these figures also incorporate inflation, which sometimes (fluctuations in oil prices) shows up as considerable changes in monetary volumes over a short period. For example, the increase in Russia's industrial and construction output in monetary terms (+27%) in 2022 was driven by the rise in oil prices following Russia's aggression against Ukraine.
Industry in the Baltic states
For EU member states, data are available on changes in GDP components at comparable prices. The Baltic states saw a considerable increase in industrial and construction output per head of population in the decade before joining the EU.
During that period the Baltic states were able to halve the gap between their own countries and the EU average for industrial and construction output per head of population. In 2004 industrial and construction output per head of population (at constant 2015 prices) was 1,594 dollars in Estonia, 1,369 dollars in Lithuania and 1,248 dollars in Latvia. In 2004 industrial and construction output per head of population in Estonia was 38% of the EU average, in Lithuania 33% and in Latvia 30%.
Lithuania and Estonia made outstanding use of EU membership. In 2021 industrial and construction output per head of population in Estonia was 58% of the EU average, in Lithuania 35% and in Latvia 38%. Unfortunately, since 2021 both Estonia and Latvia have been pursuing a policy that is destroying industry. In 2024 industrial and construction output per head of population in Estonia was 47% of the EU average, in Lithuania 66% and in Latvia 33%. According to World Bank statistics, Latvia's shortfall relative to the EU in industrial and construction output per head of population has not changed much since accession to the EU as of 2024.
In 2004 industrial and construction output per head of population in Latvia was 30% of the EU average, and 20 years later – in 2024 – industrial and construction output per head of population in Latvia was… 32.7% of the EU average.
Over 20 years Latvia has managed to close the gap with the EU average for industrial and construction output per head of population by 2.7 percentage points. EU membership has brought no appreciable benefit to the development of Latvian industry and construction.
The largest industrial producers
Given that roughly half of the world's countries have not yet submitted their detailed data on GDP structure in 2024 to the World Bank, it makes sense to examine the distribution of industrial production worldwide in 2023.
In 2004 the top eight industrial producers in the world (industry together with construction) were the USA, Japan, China, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, France and Canada. Setting China aside, the top eight largest industrial countries in the world included every country belonging to the G7 group – an international organisation created 60 years ago, uniting the largest industrial countries of that time. In 2023 the top eight industrial producers in the world were already different. They comprised China, the USA, Germany, Japan, India, Russia, the United Kingdom and Mexico, with Saudi Arabia in 9th place. The world has changed. Only four G7 countries made the world's top nine – the USA, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom. It is worth noting that one Eastern European country, Poland, has also made the top twenty industrial powers in the world (20th place). With an industrial and construction output of 19 billion US dollars, Lithuania stood 83rd in the world in 2023, Latvia with 9.2 billion US dollars stood 103rd in the world, and Estonia with 9 billion US dollars stood 104th in the world.
Industrial production is leaving Europe
Between 2004 and 2023 the world's centre of gravity in production shifted away from the EU, North America and Japan towards what were once developing countries. Over that period, global industrial and construction output at current prices increased 2.42-fold. Countries with above-average growth reduced their industrial shortfall relative to the world average, while countries with below-average growth increased it. The greatest industrial growth over that period was in the least developed countries according to the UN classification (+123.4% above the world average), the countries of South Asia (+98.0% above the world average), the Arab countries (+36.7% above the world average), the countries of West and Central Africa (+33.6% above the world average) and the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean (+24.2% above the world average).
Dramatically below the world average were the countries of North America (19.9% below the world average), high-income countries (28.9% below the world average), OECD member states (32.2% below the world average) and European Union member states (34.8% below the world average). Among the 50 countries in the world with the largest growth in industrial and construction output relative to the world average, there is only one EU member state – Romania (50th place, +62% above the world average). Although growth in the Baltic states' industrial and construction output was greater than the world average, all three Baltic states nevertheless fell in the global ranking of industrial and construction output volumes between 2004 and 2023. In 2004 Latvia ranked 96th in the world for industrial and construction output, but in 2023 it ranked 103rd. Lithuania ranked 77th in the world in 2004 and 83rd in 2023, while Estonia ranked 97th in the world in 2004 but 104th in 2023. The largest declines in industrial output over that period, meanwhile, were in countries where civil war took place during that time – South Sudan, Syria and Lebanon.
Manufacturing per head of population
Total industrial output is on the whole proportional to population. However, the level of industrial development in a country is more accurately characterised by industrial output per head of population.
Manufacturing output per head of population is a more accurate indicator of a country's economic development than total GDP per head of population. In 2024 the world's most industrially developed countries in terms of manufacturing output per head of population were Ireland (29,203 US dollars per head), Switzerland (18,340 US dollars per head), Singapore (14,810 US dollars per head), Denmark (12,083 US dollars per head), Germany (9,938 US dollars per head) and Austria (8,731 US dollars per head).
The USA, with 8,565 US dollars per head, ranked 7th in the world. The world's top ten also included South Korea (8,052 US dollars per head), Sweden (7,961 US dollars per head) and Finland (7,370 US dollars per head).
In the European Union, manufacturing output per head of population in 2024 was 6,047 US dollars. In terms of manufacturing output per head of population, the Baltic states are at the top end of the world rankings, proving that they belong among the world's more developed countries. Lithuania, with 4,126 dollars per head, ranked 30th in the world, Estonia, with 3,523 dollars per head, ranked 36th in the world, and Latvia, with 2,320 dollars per head, ranked 47th in the world. Latvia was ahead of Romania and Greece. China, with 3,308 dollars per head, ranked 38th in the world. Estonia was higher.
The world average for manufacturing output per head of population in 2024 was 2,066 US dollars. In 2024 the countries with negligible manufacturing output per head of population (less than 50 dollars) were Mozambique, Ethiopia, Niger, South Sudan, Eritrea, Afghanistan, East Timor, Burundi, Micronesia, Liberia and the Gambia.
Between 2004 and 2024 the world's centre of gravity in manufacturing production also shifted away from the EU, North America and Japan towards what were once developing countries. Over that period, global manufacturing output per head of population at current prices increased 1.84-fold. To a large extent, the change was marked by the shift of many developing economies – Gabon, Uganda, Vietnam, Mongolia, Bangladesh, Guinea, Cambodia and others – from the dominant role of extractive industry towards manufacturing.
From 2004 to 2024, manufacturing output per head of population in Poland and Lithuania increased considerably faster than the world average. In 2004 Poland ranked 44th in the world for manufacturing output per head of population, but in 2023 it ranked 31st. In 2004 Lithuania ranked 41st in the world, but in 2023 it ranked 30th.
There was notable progress in Latvia too, which in 2004 ranked 56th in the world for manufacturing output per head of population but in 2023 ranked 46th, and in Estonia, which ranked 40th in the world in 2004 but 36th in 2023.
On average across EU member states, meanwhile, the change in manufacturing output per head of population between 2004 and 2024 was 22.4% below the world average; in the countries of North America it was 17.3% below the world average, and in OECD member states 26.8% below the world average. The change in US manufacturing output per head of population was 15.4% below the world average, and Germany's 21.2% below the world average.
In Finland the change in manufacturing output per head of population between 2004 and 2024 was 50.9% below the world average, and in Japan 53.3% below the world average. Japan's decline was even worse than that of civil-war-torn Libya (51.6% below the world average).
With the exception of Poland, the Baltic states, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary and Slovakia, the past 20 years have seen a catastrophic destruction of manufacturing in the EU.
Current trends suggest that the global West is heading towards complete dependence on industrial output from China and the global South. While the latest US policy shows signs of changing the previous direction and reducing the US shortfall in industrial production relative to Asian countries, the dominant political currents in the EU are increasingly seeking to reinforce the Green Deal and climate change with regulations that prohibit industrial development.
The EU's current Green Deal and climate change policy in effect means the European Union's economic suicide in a not so distant future.