An article on the situation in the US and Canada, which provides a global perspective, is available in the attachment
Latvia could find itself in a similar situation to Canada if it does not decide in time to put an additional couple of million m3 of roundwood onto the market, as this is the only way to reduce the price of raw materials. If prices are lowered without adding volume, the price will not drop for the private sector, and the desired goal will not be achieved!
About the article
It seems that the reduction in capacity in Canada, caused by the 20% US import duty (levy) on Canadian timber ALONGSIDE THE CANADIAN GOVERNMENT'S INERT REACTION TO ROUNDWOOD PRICE CHANGES after the 'beautiful' 2018 sawmill balance sheets, CREATED A FATAL IMPACT ON THE CANADIAN WOOD PROCESSING INDUSTRY, which it will now feel for years – a fact now acknowledged by the Canadians themselves.
It is possible that US customs and other duties on Canadian timber and Chinese wood industry goods, together with China's 'response' customs duties (on 4407 different goods) in connection with a potential increase in the number of new homes being built in the US, will eventually, at some point in the near or distant future, 'create' a 'second' 2018 for us!
About the situation in Europe
Czech Republic
In the Czech Republic, spruce log prices have fallen to 53 EUR, and the government has approved a subsidy of 97.6 million EUR for private forest owners, intended to compensate for damage and destruction caused by the European spruce bark beetle. In addition, a similar amount has been earmarked for the Czech forestry sector.
Sweden
Much could be written, but one thing suffices: the price of spruce logs averages 45-55 EUR/m3 at the sawmill, and roundwood stocks at sawmills in August have reached their highest level in 15 years (they haven't been this high even after the 2015 storm).
(The current bark beetle infestation could potentially have a serious impact on forests in the future, which is why forest owners are concerned about the situation.)
(According to forecasts and estimates, the current bark beetle infestation in Southern Sweden could destroy 2-12 million m3 of spruce this year. No one knows or is willing to commit to predicting an exact figure within such a wide range. For comparison: usually, about 95 million m3 of forest is harvested in Sweden annually.)
'It is difficult to assess the impact of what is happening on wood supply to sawmills, according to the local timber industry federation. Sector capacity utilisation may increase, while productivity will decrease!'
'2-3 million m3 is not a major problem, but if it reaches 10-12 million m3, the industry will have large and serious problems, because it will be the largest infestation ever and have the greatest consequences.'
'It looks like spruce wood will make up a larger percentage of wood supply from forests than is normal, which will offer greater opportunities for pulp producers.'
Great Britain
Prices for C24 planed material in September are being quoted at 145 GBP (FOB Riga). A drop of about 45-50 GBP/m3 over the year.
Austria
Approximately 9.5 million m3 of bark beetle-damaged wood in 2018, with the trend continuing in 2019. Roundwood prices have fallen to as low as 50 EUR/m3.
Finland
Record-high logging volumes, roundwood prices are falling.
Germany
Spruce logs are being exported to China at 38-45 EUR/m3 (stumpage), while the industry is being offered spruce roundwood at 50-60 EUR/m3. Municipalities are subsidising logging!