Timber producers in more than 70 countries with large areas of forest could find themselves at risk within just a few months of the European Union bringing in the EUDR.
More than 70 countries currently have log export bans (LEB) in force, under which they effectively restrict (or have previously restricted) the international export of one or more forest products. While the bans have successfully boosted employment in developing countries (by as much as 25%), they have accelerated the rapid clearance of forests in forest-rich countries.
That is the conclusion of two separate studies carried out by CERDI, Clermont Auvergne Université, CNRS and IRD, which analysed data from 124 developing countries over a 20-year period (up to 2019).
“The findings show that introducing an LEB leads to a considerable rise in deforestation – by as much as 22.3% compared with countries that have not introduced one,” says study co-author Mouhamed Zerbo, noting that the results remain robust across a range of tests, including alternative measures of LEBs and of deforestation.
The first study found that log export bans are a major driver of deforestation. Zerbo pointed out that “the adoption of log export bans intensifies competition for land between agriculture and forestry, leading to an expansion of agricultural areas and a consequent decline in forest cover. It pushes down roundwood prices, encourages the use of timber in wood processing and places additional pressure on forest resources.”
Bringing in log export bans creates both winners and losers.
In Zerbo's view, the bans have a significant effect on sustainable forest management. “Logging companies and exporters of unprocessed roundwood are usually left worse off, because the reduction in their profits is redistributed to other domestic producers. As logging becomes less profitable, operators may shift away from forestry towards agriculture, which is likely to lead to the conversion of forests. The winners, on the other hand – particularly companies in the wood-processing sector – benefit from this activity. Foreign investment in industry is drawn more strongly towards exploiting abundant domestic forest resources. This applies both to traditional sectors with low processing capacity, which need large volumes of roundwood, and to foreign sectors with higher processing capacity, which require substantial roundwood stocks because of the resource savings involved. As these sectors expand, the growing demand for roundwood places further pressure on forests.”
Under projects organised by China, the country's businesses now buy up enormous volumes of sawn timber from developing countries rich in timber. Much of it is purchased from countries in Africa, South-East Asia and Latin America where log exports are banned.
The study, published in the journal Journal of Environmental Management in its latest issue, estimated that the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) could cut timber imports from high-risk countries by more than 25% – and by as much as 38% if the definitions were changed to include so-called agricultural conversion (known as EUDR+).
The researchers Craig Johnston and Jingang Guo of the Department of Agriculture and Agribusiness at Louisiana State University, together with Jeffrey Prestemon of the US Forest Service, used the Forest Resource Outlook Model (FOROM) to model the effects of the EUDR on production, trade and price formation. The findings indicate that countries where logging is highly intensive, such as Brazil, Indonesia and Malaysia, can expect a considerable fall in roundwood production and exports, which will in turn affect the prices of sawn timber and wood panels. At the same time, in countries with low rates of deforestation, including Canada (up 1.4%) and the United States (up 0.1%), production may rise slightly to meet European Union demand.