As the EU is committed to reducing its dependence on Russian fossil fuels as a result of the war in Ukraine, carbon-intensive coal is gaining a new lease of life.
For how long? How much damage will be done?
Some of the largest coal energy producers in Europe are preparing to extend the use of this most climate-unfriendly fossil fuel. Support for burning more coal—which is a massive U-turn in energy policy in the context of the dramatically changed geopolitical reality—is coming from various sources, including staunch advocates of green energy.
Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency stated that a temporary switch from gas to coal would be a viable way to reduce the EU's dependence on Russian gas relatively quickly.
Even the head of the European Green Deal, Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans, has taken note of the return to coal. EU member states can "use nuclear power or coal for a little longer", F. Timmermans said at a press conference last week.
"All options are open," said an EU diplomat, referring to the EU's ambitious goals to reduce the use of Russian oil and Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of this year. It is clear that delaying the phasing out of coal in Europe will, in the short term, likely increase carbon emissions.
"Coal combustion in the EU energy sector will remain at the high level we observed last year, possibly even increasing slightly each year," said Qin Yan, a carbon analyst at financial data company Refinitiv. Postponing some coal closures to ensure energy supplies "will also create more emissions".
Coal is one of the biggest drivers of climate change and air pollution. However, there is another complication: the EU is also heavily dependent on Russian coal imports.
And there is another wrinkle: coal prices have reached record highs following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and global demand is expected to reach record levels this year.
The fact that coal is so carbon-intensive, that its price is also rising rapidly, and that large amounts of coal still need to be imported are factors that, at least for the time being, help to mitigate concerns about a long-term return to coal.
For instance, at Refinitiv, it is argued that high fossil fuel prices will encourage policymakers to accelerate decarbonisation and the deployment of renewable energy sources. And others agree that the end result could actually accelerate the rollout of renewables, despite the increase in coal production in the near future.
This view is shared by some environmental organisations, which believe that a temporary return to coal will not change the long-term decisions of EU countries to phase out coal energy.
"The economic viability of coal-fired power plants is falling rapidly, and this trend will not change because of the current crisis," the group Powering Past Coal Alliance told EU Observer.
Phasing out coal?
However, it is clear that as the EU seeks to decouple its energy system from Russian oil and gas, the delay in the phase-out of coal is now locked in.
State Secretary at the German Ministry for Climate Action, Patrick Graichen, said this week that Russia's aggression against Ukraine has broken the narrative of gas as a "transition technology", meaning that more coal could be burned in the short term.
In fact, coal remains the second largest source of electricity in Germany, and the war has opened a window for fossil fuel giants to continue business as usual.
German energy giant RWE stated that it could provide up to 3.5 GW of coal power capacity if requested. According to Refinitiv modelling, this would result in an increase in emissions of 12 megatonnes this year. In any case, the country's plan to phase out coal by 2038, and if possible by 2035, is now in question.
Poland, which is also one of the main coal producers in Europe, has announced that as many coal units as possible must operate in the country to support both Ukraine and the EU's energy system.
"Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shaken the foundations of EU energy and climate policy," a Polish diplomat said this week. "We must first and foremost guarantee the energy and geopolitical security of the EU," the diplomat said.
Similarly, Bulgaria will continue to use coal to ensure the stability of the national energy system. Bulgaria, one of the main coal consumers in Europe, is also one of the few EU countries that has not yet set a deadline for phasing out coal.