In 2022, the Nordic countries remained the largest producers and exporters of softwood lumber – Sweden was the largest exporter in Europe, while Finland held third place. However, the German softwood lumber market saw a decline in demand, and Russian sawmills faced significant losses due to port closures following the country's invasion of Ukraine. In China, imports of softwood lumber also decreased, and sources of supply shifted to European suppliers. The Nordic countries produced a record volume of softwood lumber in 2021. In the following years, production decreased slightly by about 2%, as European timber markets weakened in the second half of 2021.
In Finland, Norway and Sweden, production levels in 2022 were close to all-time highs, and the Norwegian sawmill sector had seen the most growth over the last ten years. Swedish production accounted for 56% of the total volume in the region, followed by Finland (34%), Norway (9%) and Denmark (1%). These shares have remained largely unchanged over the last decade.
Approximately 38% of European softwood lumber exports come from Nordic sawmills, which is less than in 2016, when this figure reached 45%. The total volume from this region increased by 5% in 2022 compared to the previous year.
Sweden is the largest exporter of softwood lumber in Europe. A record volume of lumber was shipped from this country in 2020. However, volumes fell by more than 10% the following year as European demand declined.
Export markets were mixed in 2022 – demand for Swedish lumber grew in the USA (+84% compared to the previous year), China (+83%) and the Middle East and North Africa region (+34%). This occurred even as sales volumes to Europe fell by approximately 5%.
Finland ranked third among timber-exporting countries in Europe and was the only Northern European country to reduce timber shipments in 2022. Export volumes fell by 2.2% compared to the previous year, yet the volume was higher than its 10-year average.
Demand for softwood lumber in Germany fell over the year
Demand for lumber in Germany declined in 2022, resulting in a 34% drop in softwood lumber imports over the year. This is the lowest level in the last ten years.
All supplier countries sent less lumber to Germany in 2022. However, sawmills in the Nordic and Baltic region gained relative market share. Furthermore, suppliers from Central Europe, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine lost their positions.
Germany continued to be a lumber-exporting country, supplying a record volume of timber in 2022. The country has expanded and modernised its sawmill industry in recent years and has become more competitive in global markets. Over the last five years, lumber production has increased by 6%. Net exports have increased significantly, and a 125% growth in production volume is expected in 2022 compared to 2018 data.
The most significant changes in lumber sales to the 15 largest markets since 2018 were observed in the following countries:
China (+329%)
Taiwan (+219%)
United States (+186%)
Poland (+129%)
Over the same period, there was a smaller decline in supplies to neighbouring countries. This applies to the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France and Austria.
Russian timber markets lose 1 billion US dollars
In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many European and Asian markets closed their ports to Russian sawmills. This led to a decrease in softwood lumber exports by almost 21% year-on-year from 2021 to 2022. The estimated value lost due to the drop in export volume was approximately 1 billion US dollars. In the second half of 2022, no shipments were made to Europe. Volumes to Japan and South Korea also fell compared to the first half of 2022.
As a result, Russian lumber producers had to redirect sales to the domestic market and lower-price markets in the following regions:
North Africa
Middle East
CIS countries
Turkey
Supplies decreased to most countries in 2022, with the most significant declines occurring in countries included on Russia's list of “unfriendly countries”.
Countries that increased their share in Russia's total exports:
Uzbekistan
Egypt
Kazakhstan
Tajikistan
Turkey
Singapore
UAE
Iran
China experiences lowest import levels in 12 years
China's softwood lumber imports fell to their lowest level in 12 years in 2022, as the country suspended trade in response to the C19 epidemic. Import volumes decreased compared to the 2019 peak – the year before the C19 outbreak.
Over the last decade, the sources of timber supply to China have changed. The most significant changes relate to a substantial decrease in North American supplies and an increase in cargo volumes from European suppliers. This, in turn, led to a significant increase in their market shares.
Russia has also increased its market share, becoming the largest supplier to China. Its import volume in 2022 accounts for nearly two-thirds of the import total.
China's timber imports saw significant shifts in the second half of 2022. The Russian market share fell from 73% of total import volume in the 3rd quarter of 2022 to 57% in the 4th quarter.
On the other hand, European lumber producers sent a larger volume. Their market share increased from 14% in the 3rd quarter of 2022 to a historic high of 27% in the final quarter of 2022. The dominant European suppliers were (in descending order) Finland, Sweden, Belarus and Germany.
Timber import prices fell by approximately 7% in 2022. The largest price drops were for lumber supplied from Finland, Sweden and Canada.