Currently, in most European countries, the level of logging remains well below the growth rate of wood in forest areas. Of course, this is evidence of sustainable forest management in Europe. The problem is that timber production and, effectively, the availability of wood in the future are declining. The potential reduction in wood utilisation is undeniably contrary to the fundamental principles of the Green Deal – to significantly expand the availability of renewable resources across all production cycles.

Based on Eurostat data, the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry (EOS) points out that in the twenty years from 2000 to 2020, the total growing stock in the forests of the 27 EU member states has increased by almost 30%, and moreover, the growing stock volume has increased in all member states. Overall, it is estimated that in 2020, approximately 65% of the annual increment of wood was harvested in European Union forests.

EOS also notes that other forest development trends are negatively affecting the availability of roundwood for manufacturers. Based on a recent study by the EC Joint Research Centre (JRC), the EOS report highlights that:

# The total above-ground forest biomass in the European Union was 18.4 billion tonnes in 2020. This volume was almost equally distributed between broadleaved trees (50.7%) and conifers (49.3%). The dominant species are Picea sp. (21.5% of total biomass), Pinus sylvestris (19.8%), Fagus sylvatica (11%), Quercus robur (8%), Betula sp. (6%) and Quercus cerris (4%).

# Between 1990 and 2015, the total forest biomass in the EU-27 increased by 1% to 2% annually, but from 2016 to 2020, the annual growth rate slowed down to 0.9%.

# The annual rate of increase in forest area in the EU-27 fell from 0.4% in the period before 2000 to 0.1% between 2015 and 2020.

# Modelling of forest growth suggests that the total annual growth rate may slow down even further between 2020 and 2025.

# The slowdown in the forest growth rate in the European Union is linked to various factors, the most significant of which is the ageing of forest stands (especially broadleaved trees).

Although the rate of forest growth has slowed, logging volumes in the EU-27 showed a clear upward trend between 1990 and 2015, driven by the increasing proportion of forests reaching maturity, rising demand for wood, and a significant proportion of natural disturbances – bark beetle infestations, fires – which contributed to an increase in logging volumes, particularly in Central Europe.

The increase in climate variability and resulting extreme conditions has recently been contributing to higher tree mortality and declining productivity.

Drought and heatwaves interact with other natural disturbances, such as fires and pest outbreaks, contributing to the negative impact expected in the coming years on forest growth as a whole.

It is expected that the combined effect of reduced forest growth and natural disturbances may become a serious obstacle. In the future, the available volume of wood most suitable for timber production purposes will decrease. European sawmillers also point out that future policy measures may further restrict the harvesting of roundwood in the European Union.

These measures include:

# # # The new EU Biodiversity Strategy, which plans to protect 30% of total EU land area and to “strictly protect” 10% of these areas, focusing in particular on areas with very high biodiversity value that are important for climate change mitigation and adaptation, including all so-called “primary and old-growth” forests. Guidelines on closer-to-nature forestry practices are also expected to be developed.

# # # The Nature Restoration Law, which stipulates that progress in all forest ecosystems must be achieved by taking into account a range of indicators, including deadwood (both standing and lying), uneven age structure, avoidance of forest fragmentation, a common forest bird index, and soil organic carbon content.

# # # The revised LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) Regulation, which increases the European Union's target for net carbon removals in natural sinks from 225 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (it should be noted that according to some studies, this target has already been met) to 310 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent by 2030. To reach this new target, forestry practices will need to be changed – which, according to many scenarios, will negatively affect the volume of land available for wood harvesting.

# # # EUDR – EU Deforestation Regulation (the European Union has adopted a framework to curb the negative impact of the EU market on global deforestation and forest degradation worldwide. At the same time, it aims to protect the rights of indigenous communities), which prohibits placing or exporting products from the EU market that have resulted from deforestation or forest degradation, and requires increased due diligence compared to the EUTR. Although, according to EUDR definitions, there is only a relatively low risk of deforestation and degradation within the EU, the new legislation represents a potentially significant increase in transaction costs and obligations for commercial forest managers and their customers in the European Union.