In total, we have been measuring the scale of the shadow economy in the Baltic states since 2009. It must be noted here that this is a highly complex topic, as it is impossible to calculate with great precision just how large the shadow economy is. There are several methods used to do this. None of these methods is perfect. We have applied our own method in ten other countries, including Russia, Ukraine, and even Kyrgyzstan, Poland, Romania and others. We tested and validated whether our method would work.

One thing is clear – much like a clock that is slightly wrong – over time it consistently shows the same incorrect time. In other words, it is not important whether the shadow economy is 20% or 21%, the figure is 95% accurate as it is. What one can trust is the dynamic. If our method shows that the shadow economy is increasing or decreasing, then that is indeed the case.