Despite various forecasts appearing in the public domain regarding heating season costs, rising prices and Euribor, and the impact of these factors on buyer behaviour, the housing market in September remained quite saturated and active. To help market participants better understand current events, Latio compiles five indicators every month in its “Housing Market Confidence Index” that best describe the situation in the market over the past month. The most notable change in the September market is that the proportion of housing transactions continues to grow, and current sales data do not indicate stagnation in this segment.

“Housing Buyer Confidence Index” data for September:

• 36 days – the average time required to sell a home at market price (32 in August; 28 days in July);
• 12% of homes were sold within one month of the listing being published (14% in August; 16% in July);
• 58% of sellers asked for a price disproportionately high for the market situation (63% in August; 60% in July);
• 2% of buyers offered a higher price than indicated in the listing (4% in August; 7% in July);
• 26% of transactions took place without the use of credit (26% in August; 24% in July).

Analysing market trends in September, it is clear that the housing market has become more active after the summer. Although buyers need more time to make decisions, the number of transactions has grown by an average of 4% compared to August. For example, in Riga, the number of apartment transactions in September exceeded 850, with a total transaction value of over 53 million euros. While this is about 22% less than in September last year, it is primarily explained by the consistently high supply of serial apartments on the market and the rise in the proportion of transactions in this specific segment.

“Regarding the most pronounced price fluctuations, we see that the trends of the last few months persist, most noticeably in two segments – transactions for new projects and serial apartments. While prices for new development properties continue to rise due to insufficient supply, which has decreased by a further 3% compared to August, the saturated supply of serial apartments on the market is currently contributing to a decline in the prices of these properties. Admittedly, at the moment, this is relatively insignificant and reaches only 0.4%,” explains Ksenija Ijevleva, market analyst at Latio. “At the same time, it must be acknowledged that selling such properties independently is becoming increasingly complicated for sellers. Before making a decision, prospective buyers find it important to obtain not just moral but also data-driven confirmation that they are making the right choice, and such calculations and interpretation can only be provided by brokerage professionals. Therefore, engaging experts is no longer considered an exclusivity – it is now a necessity.”

Although various opinions have recently surfaced in the public space regarding the question of whether to buy property or wait, the real estate market never stands still, and the relationship between supply and demand continuously forces adjustments in both prices and housing affordability. It is also advisable for the public to understand that property transactions should be carried out when there is a need – if a new home is necessary, it should be purchased according to one's means. Waiting and watching the market may not yield the desired result, as even industry professionals currently find it difficult to make well-founded long-term forecasts.