As 2024 begins, significant attention is being focused on the European Commission's proposal for climate targets to be achieved by 2040 (to be published in February). The publication of this proposal comes at a time when contradictions in the field of "green policy" are becoming increasingly apparent and with only a few months left until the European Parliament elections in June. The EC's planned climate goals for 2040 are considered an intermediate step between the European Union's 2030 and 2050 climate targets. As is well known, the 27 EU member states are striving to turn Europe into the world's first climate-neutral region. In December, the EU worked actively to achieve this goal both domestically and internationally. In Brussels, provisional agreements were reached on a series of legislative acts to help Europe transition to a sustainable economy, including legislation on electricity market reform, buildings, and eco-friendly transport. On the global stage, European Union forces actively participated in the COP28 conference, taking a firm stance regarding the future use of fossil fuels. Ultimately, COP28 became the first large-scale international event to highlight the issue of fossil fuels in its concluding outcomes.
Upcoming events in the coming weeks
On climate targets for 2040
The European Commission is expected to publish its plan for the 2040 climate targets on 6 February. The EU has already set an obligation to reduce net emissions by 55% by 2030 and a target to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Setting a task for 2040 will serve as an intermediate step for the previously established goals. The European Scientific Advisory Board has set a high bar, noting that the target should be a 90-95% reduction in net emissions based on 1990 levels. This board has also warned that without further action, the EU will fail to meet its climate goals, including the goal of climate neutrality by the middle of the century. Both European Green Deal lead Maroš Šefčovič (Maroš Šefčovič) and EU climate policy lead Wopke Hoekstra (Wopke Hoekstra) emphasised at meetings held in the European Parliament that they would "defend" a reduction of at least 90%. This target was also supported by Denmark, Bulgaria, and Poland. The expected proposal will likely be the last "major" announcement before the European Parliament elections and could help guide the work of the next Commission.
Carbon dioxide removal
On the day the European Commission plans to publish its proposal for the 2040 climate targets, it will also publish a "communication on industrial carbon management", which is effectively a non-binding action plan. Alongside emissions reductions, the European Union needs to step up efforts to remove or capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in parallel with the use of fossil resources, reaching a corresponding target: eliminating all emissions by 2050 through equivalent CO₂ removal. According to Bloomberg data, under these plans, the European Union will need to remove up to 450 million tonnes of CO₂ annually by 2050 – which is roughly equivalent to the direct CO₂ emissions currently generated by buildings in European member states. The draft indicates that the EU energy sector should capture more than 100 million tonnes of CO₂, while a further 100-200 million tonnes should be removed directly from the atmosphere.
Driving force of policy
As the European Parliament elections approach, it is time to complete the development of several important "puzzle pieces" of the European Green Deal. Belgium, which took over the Presidency of the Council of the EU on 1 January, is rushing to finalise negotiations on boosting European clean technology manufacturing via the Net Zero Industry Act, as well as on carbon removal certification and rules that will help reduce the amount of waste packaging. Negotiations between the European Commission, EU member states, and the European Parliament (also known as the trilogue) on the Net Zero Industry Act took place on 22 January, while discussions on packaging are scheduled for 5 February. Some provisional agreements still need to be officially signed, including the Nature Restoration Law and the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive. This is usually quite straightforward to accomplish, although it can sometimes trigger serious disputes.
The political climate is heating up...
The European Union is preparing for the European Parliament elections, which will take place from 6 to 9 June. Brussels is beginning to "shift into pre-election campaign working mode". This comes at a time when green topics are becoming increasingly controversial in the eyes of European Union member states. In many places, for instance Germany, unrest is growing regarding the Green Deal and the weakening of certain policies in the agricultural sector. Protests also took place in Belgium and the Netherlands in connection with government efforts to reduce nitrogen emissions. Some EU legislative acts, such as the Nature Restoration Law, have already found themselves in the crossfire of disputes. However, the majority of EU legislative acts scheduled for adoption during this European Parliament term have already been agreed upon, leaving little room for change before the elections. It is not yet known, however, how resistance to green policy will affect the implementation of these legislative acts. It may also affect the European Parliament elections, which, in turn, will determine who will gain a majority and leading positions in the European Union in the coming years, potentially influencing green policy for the next term.
Latest information on EU policy-making – a summary of December
COP28. The most significant event in December was the COP28 climate change meeting, which became the first meeting to mention a transition away from the use of fossil fuels in its concluding outcomes. The European Union, represented by its Climate Policy lead Wopke Hoekstra and Spanish Minister for the Ecological Transition Teresa Ribera (Teresa Ribera), strongly pushed for ambitious targets and refused to accept the initial, "weaker" text. The COP28 concluding outcomes include the goals supported by the EU, including tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency, and, crucially, transitioning away from fossil fuels. European Climate Policy lead W. Hoekstra called this document "the beginning of the end of fossil fuel use".
New legislative acts agreed upon
In December, a provisional agreement was reached in Brussels on a series of new legislative acts that are part of European green economy laws, such as electricity market reform, aimed at promoting the use of renewable energy sources and stabilising prices. The EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive addresses construction issues. The Industrial Emissions Directive updated the topic of emissions from industrial plants, including intensive livestock farms. Politicians also agreed on developing common internal market rules for renewable energy, natural gas, and hydrogen. Significant progress was also made in the transport sector – an agreement was reached on emission limit values for road vehicles (Euro 7) and also on improving cross-border transport infrastructure. In January, an agreement was reached on new actions to reduce emissions generated by heavy-duty vehicles. All of the above-mentioned measures still need to be approved before they become law.
Emergency measures extended.
In December, EU energy ministers extended the validity period of emergency measures adopted to address the problem of soaring energy prices and to free the European economy from its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. These include accelerated permitting for renewable energy sources, gas price caps, and joint gas purchasing. Prices, however, have never been high enough to trigger the cap. The head of the German energy industry association BDEW, Kerstin Andreae (Kerstin Andreae), warned that market intervention could have negative consequences. The decision to extend the emergency measures follows an agreement on reducing natural gas demand.
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