Less than five years ago, after the last European Parliament elections, Europe was swept by a 'green wave' triggered by young people mobilising in climate marches and protests. In this context, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (Ursula von der Leyen) unveiled the European Green Deal (Green Deal). The ambition of the project can be gauged by quoting what she said at the time: 'The Green Deal is like Europe's 'man on the moon' moment'.

Since then, the world has changed dramatically. Climate issues will likely not play a major role in the next European Parliament elections, to be held from 6-9 June. Instead, voters will head to the polls with the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine, European farmers' protests, and the potential return of Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential election in November in mind.

If we are to believe the polls, the European People's Party (EPP), to which U. von der Leyen belongs as she runs for a second term as Commission head, will remain the largest political group in Parliament. Polls predict a sharp drop for the European Green Party, which could lose up to 20 seats. This would be a real political failure, as the group currently holds 72 MEPs. There have never been so many Green MEPs in the European Parliament before. Losing enough seats would reduce the influence of centrist and left-wing political groups in favour of far-right political groups. The potential new structure of parliament raises questions about future political majorities and the future of the Green Deal.

'If the Green Deal no longer has democratic support, it will end. This is one of the key issues of the election,' said Pascal Canfin, Chair of the European Parliament's Environment Committee, who was involved in many of the negotiations on the Green Deal. The European Greens are also concerned: 'In the 2019 European Parliament elections, there were climate demonstrations and opposing the Green Deal was politically costly. Today, it is politically profitable,' Philippe Lamberts, co-chair of the European Parliament's Greens group, told journalists in Brussels. Therefore, the Greens will have to play 'the game of their lives' in the elections.

What can be expected in the coming weeks?

Energy policy

When European Union (EU) legislators agreed on a new approach to setting minimum energy performance standards for residential buildings, the corresponding directive had to be adopted by European Parliament legislators (MEPs) at the March plenary session (11-14 March). MEPs will also vote on the Methane Emissions Directive. The new electricity market structure is on the agenda for the first April plenary session (10-11 April), while both elements of the future gas regulation will be discussed at the second April session (26-29 April).

Nature Restoration Regulation

EU environment ministers will meet on 25 March to give final approval to one of the most controversial pieces of environmental legislation the European Union has fought over. Currently, 21 out of 27 member states have announced they will support the regulation, MEP Jutta Paulus noted at a press briefing following the vote. This means there will be a majority for the law to be passed in its final form. The regulation will enter into force 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to implement this law at the national level.

Industrial Emissions Directive

The text of the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) is in the final stages of refinement, having already been approved by the EU Council. It remains only to get the 'green light' from European Parliament members, who will vote during the March plenary session. The directive aims to pave the way for the EU to achieve 'zero pollution' by 2050. The document is intended to target approximately 50,000 industrial and agricultural installations, which together account for 20% of pollutant emissions into the air and water. In its initial proposal, the European Commission hoped to expand the scope of the directive to include more intensive livestock farming, particularly cattle farming, which is a major emitter of methane and ammonia. The European Parliament opposed this.

Soil Monitoring Regulation

Climate resilience legislation

The legislative package prepared by the Commission on resilience and adaptation to climate change was intended to include documents on water resilience and climate risks. In its 2024 work programme, the Commission states: 'we will adopt an initiative on water resilience to ensure access to water for citizens, nature and the economy, while addressing the problem of catastrophic floods and water scarcity, and an initiative to identify and assess how best to manage climate risks across all EU policy areas'. As reported by Politico, the water resilience issue has been postponed.

Latest information on EU policy-making - summary of recent months

Nature Restoration Regulation

EU legislators gave final approval to this highly controversial text on 27 February. Its future fate was uncertain, so the vote on the Nature Restoration Regulation in the European Parliament was eagerly awaited. 329 MEPs voted in favour, 275 against, and 24 abstained. This means that a coalition of MEPs from the Christian Democrat European People's Party (EPP), the ultra-conservative and eurosceptic ECR, and the far-right ID failed to prevent the regulation's adoption. 'This is a historic breakthrough,' rapporteur César Luena (S&D) said at a press conference in Strasbourg, stressing that the adopted law gives the EU a leading role and credibility on the international stage. COP16 on biological diversity will take place in October-November this year in Cali, Colombia. Its participants will meet to discuss the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which was adopted at the end of 2022. The European Union will be able to present its recently adopted legislation. As is known, EU legislators reached an agreement on 9 November 2023, which, however, differs significantly from the European Commission's proposal submitted in June 2022.

Environmental and climate criminal law

At the same time, EU legislators also voted on the directive on environmental crime. MEPs supported the agreement reached in mid-November with member state governments on a plan to protect the environment through criminal law. It should be stressed that ECR MEPs opposed this text by a convincing majority of votes. 'It is a little disappointing,' announced Antonius Manders (EPP), noting that the ultra-conservative group had supported this text during previous negotiations. 'That is what happens in politics, especially before an election.' Before the directive enters into force, it must be officially adopted by member state ministers. It is planned that its text will be submitted at the Agriculture Council meeting on 26 March. The directive more precisely defines environmental crimes and adds new types of criminal offences, such as the illegal production, placing on the market, import, export, use or discharge of fluorinated greenhouse gases.

Carbon removal and certification system - CRCF

EU legislators reached a political agreement on 20 February on the creation of the world's first register for certified carbon dioxide removal using organic farming practices and industrial processes. The next step for the Commission is to 'develop tailored certification methodologies for different carbon removal activities', based on four criteria: quantitative assessment, additionality, long-term storage, and sustainability. The Commission is invited to include 'clear liability mechanisms when developing certification methodologies', states the Council's announcement. It is expected that an electronic EU-wide register of certification units will be established within 'four years' after the regulation enters into force. The Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF) is intended to encourage the scaling up of technological and natural carbon dioxide removals, allowing for the transparent and verifiable assessment of CO₂ removal certificates in monetary terms.

'Greenwashing' - greenwashing

MEPs adopted the final version of the directive at the 17 January plenary session; its goal is to better protect consumers from misleading claims regarding the environment; the European Commission came forward with this proposal in March 2022. The specific legislation expands the list of prohibited actions included in the Unfair Commercial Practices Directive. It adds so-called generic environmental claims without certification or public approval and prohibits the advertising of products with limited service lives.

Some interesting events are coming up soon:

4-5 March. Solar Power Summit in Brussels. SolarPower Europe's flagship event will bring together 450 high-level industry representatives and decision-makers from the EU and beyond to discuss the most important strategic, political and market developments shaping the future of solar energy in Europe.

29-30 April. Online seminar on climate litigation at the European Court of Human Rights. Key aspects and potential approaches to climate litigation at the ECHR will be discussed in detail. Attention will be focused on the recently discussed jurisprudence decided by the ECHR.