Poland's new government has updated the country's energy strategy and claims that the strategy is more ambitious, yet its implementation remains unclear. A great deal depends on how the Polish coal miners' unions react. The Poles have set a confident course towards strengthening their country's energy independence, based on the development of nuclear power. It must be said that the construction of a nuclear power station is also being talked about in Latvia, though for the time being no concrete action is visible here in this field… The Poles are acting, and in seeking to increase nuclear power generation, the country's government will firm up its plans for the construction of a second nuclear power station by the end of the year.

Events expected in the near future

• The updated nuclear energy strategy – an updated Polish nuclear energy strategy is to be drawn up shortly, an update to Poland's nuclear energy programme is expected by the end of the year. The strategy currently states that Poland's goal is to secure between 6 and 9 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity by 2043. The first reactor in Poland will come into operation in 2033. The site for the new reactor has been chosen in the Pomerania region in the north of the country. The second reactor is to be built in Central Poland. Government representatives report that the updated nuclear energy programme will still include the project using the technologies of the US companies Westinghouse and Bechtel, which were selected for the power station in Pomerania. There may also be new small modular reactors (SMRs). For now it is not clear whether the government will put forward a proposal with several options, or whether it has already committed to choosing a single strategy. There is still no clarity about the precise location of the station or about who will build it. One of the obvious choices could be Bełchatów, a town with a lignite-fired power station of almost 5 GW capacity available and, consequently, an excellent electricity grid.
  
  
• Energy prices for households – the Polish government is considering extending household subsidies for electricity, heat and natural gas. The decision depends on the 2025 budget, the Ministry of Climate and Environment announced, adding that one of the options under discussion is an extension until the end of next year. However, such an approach would cost 4.4 billion zloty (approximately 1.1 billion euros). The government is trying to save money, because in July the European Commission opened an excessive deficit procedure against Poland. A decision is expected by the end of the year.
  
  
• Ukrainian "energy refugees"? Think tanks in Poland have expressed serious concern about the damage caused by Russia's deliberate destruction of Ukraine's energy sector. The Ukrainian government announced that the country has already lost approximately 13 GW of baseload generating capacity, and warned that further attacks could destabilise Ukraine's nuclear power stations, which remain vital to ensuring a stable electricity supply in the country. Several analytical centres in Poland have warned that many Ukrainians could be forced to become "energy refugees" if they have no access to electricity and heating in the coming winter. Such a scenario could have a major impact on Poland's economy, which is why Warsaw and Kyiv are talking about increasing energy exports from the European Union to Ukraine. If the European grid regulator ENTSO-E agrees to this, the electricity export capacity limit could rise from 1.7 to 2 GW. Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk has proposed a scheme that would allow electricity to be exported from Poland's currently idle coal-fired power stations without paying EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) allowances, in order to provide Ukraine with greater baseload capacity.

Summary of last month

• Poland's Ministry of Climate and Environment has published a new version of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) , which it describes as "ambitious". The updated version envisages that by 2030 the share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption will be 32.6%, meaning that 56.1% of total electricity generation will come from renewable sources. It also includes additional energy and climate policy measures that would speed up the pace of the country's energy transition, such as energy efficiency measures and new financing schemes. However, this ambitious approach could mean abandoning the agreement previously reached with the miners' unions on phasing out coal use by 2049, moving that date forward instead. In order to improve air quality, the updated NECP proposes ending the use of coal for household heating by 2040. The public consultation on the NECP will run until 15 November.
  
  
• The experienced Polish diplomat Piotr Serafin has been chosen as the candidate for the post of EU Budget Commissioner. He is closely associated with Prime Minister Donald Tusk. P. Serafin has previously served as Minister for EU Affairs and has also worked at the EU Commission's Representation in Poland. One of his duties will be to organise the financing of energy and climate policy. Poland is eagerly awaiting EU assistance for energy transition projects.
  
  
• During the energy transition Poland wants to retain traditional electricity generating capacity (coal- and gas-fired power stations), but it is still unclear how this will be organised. Until recently the intention was to transfer the coal assets of the state-owned energy companies Polska Grupa Energetyczna, Tauron, Enea and Energa to a new agency called the National Energy Security Agency (NABE). The company would receive state subsidies in order to retain the necessary generating capacity until cleaner alternatives are ready, so that energy can be supplied at any time. According to data from the Polish regulator Urząd Regulacji Energetyki, Poland will be short of up to 5 GW of secure and controllable electricity capacity. However, the new government rejected the NABE plans back in 2023. Instead, in September the government announced plans to expand the capacity market in order to secure the capacity needed. The question is which power stations should remain open. It is for the national electricity grid operator Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne to answer this question. Coal and natural gas lobby groups have already come into conflict over which power stations should receive support, and which should be built or modernised.