Millions of people in various "neglected" regions of the world could soon face violent conflicts over water, according to early warning projections (a tool) developed by the Water Peace and Security partnership (WPS). This summer, news channels turned their attention to Europe as the continent was ravaged by a record-breaking heatwave. Researchers are urging that other drought-stricken regions should not be overlooked. According to data from the Water Peace and Security partnership – a group of organisations dedicated to monitoring resource scarcity – there is a high risk of resource-driven conflict expected in several countries over the next 12 months.
The world is not listening, warns WPS coordinator Susanne Schmeier
“At the moment, the risks associated with water (or more accurately, the lack of it) are not receiving the attention they deserve,” she says. “Problems might be noticed for a brief moment, such as the flooding in Pakistan. However, given the various crises the world is facing, water scarcity or other issues usually do not stay at the forefront.”
How do you predict conflicts caused by drought?
WPS researchers have developed an “early warning tool” to predict whether water scarcity will trigger conflict. Environmental, political, and socio-demographic factors are used to determine these projections.
“It is capable of doing much more than the human brain ever could,” explains Professor Schmeier. Drought can lead to food shortages and the displacement of millions. Those who would otherwise live peacefully are forced to fight for the remaining resources. Government systems can also collapse, creating a power vacuum. The tool allows for the assessment of the likelihood of violence in vulnerable areas. Since its inception in 2019, it has covered 86% of future conflicts, successfully predicting more than 9 out of 10 “ongoing conflicts” and 6 out of 10 “emerging conflicts”.
Which regions could see drought-related conflict in the next 12 months?
Drought in Europe and California has been widely reported in the media, while other regions tend to be neglected. In particular, areas that the world is more accustomed to seeing suffer from drought. “These are arid and semi-arid regions that have been struggling with water scarcity for a long time, but climate change is, of course, making the situation worse,” says Susanne Schmeier. “Together with many other factors, this can trigger conflicts between different groups of water users, different provinces, or, in some cases, countries.” In the second quarter of 2022, WPS identified the following conflict risks:
1. Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia
Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia have been hit hard by drought for the fourth consecutive season. The war in Ukraine has also limited the region's grain imports, and at least 18.6 million people in the region are facing malnutrition. The WPS report warns that there is a high probability that conflict in the region could start and persist for a long time.
2. South Africa
Prolonged drought is pushing the Nelson Mandela Bay in South Africa towards “Day Zero” – a threatening term used to describe the moment when water taps are turned off for city residents. The Eastern Cape region of the Republic of South Africa suffered from severe multi-year drought from 2015 to 2020. After a short respite at the end of 2021, the region again fell under the grip of drought. Urban residents were once again forced to queue for water. The WPS report states that there is a high probability of conflict in the region.
3. Iraq
Water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers – the sources of life for millions of Iraqis – are dropping dangerously. By the end of May 2022, they had decreased by 60% compared to the previous year. The lack of surface water has forced the Ministry of Agriculture to reduce irrigated land cultivation by 50%. Iraq has asked Turkey and Iran to release more water from the upper reaches of the rivers, but without success. “Upstream countries provide little or no help, while provinces do not comply with the central government's efforts to address the issue internally,” warns WPS. The risk of conflict is increasing as local authorities try to solve the situation themselves, ignoring federal mandates on water management. In July, some groundwater managers were attacked in Al Muthanna province, indicating that violence could escalate.
4. Iran and Afghanistan
Iran and Afghanistan share the Helmand River, where water levels are low. Tensions have increased as both countries compete to secure limited water supplies. Currently, more than 90% of the population in Afghanistan does not have enough food. “Silent killers,” warns the Red Cross, as it prepares for heatwaves, with thousands of lives needing to be saved each year.
5. Pakistan and India
Although Pakistan (and Indian territories) have suffered from heavy flooding in recent weeks, Pakistan (and Indian territories) also faced unprecedented heatwaves earlier in the year. Due to low yields, India imposed a ban on wheat exports, increasing food shortages in neighbouring regions. The border region is already extremely tense as India and Pakistan dispute territorial claims.
The WPS report states that there is a high probability that conflict in this region could flare up again and continue.
What can be done to prevent the risk of conflict related to water (or its scarcity)?
Projections tend to be bleak reading. Hope is not lost, says Professor Susanne Schmeier. By identifying conflict risk early, researchers can help draw attention to at-risk regions. “I try to be optimistic. I think the situation simply forces us to cooperate,” she says. S. Schmeier explains that identified problems force us to seek ways to prevent conflicts, invent new technologies, and reduce water losses. “Many lines of action are needed. Everything starts with awareness, from the individual to governments and the international environment.” Individuals can take steps to reduce water consumption and waste, while scientists can help increase agricultural efficiency using new irrigation technologies and resilient crops. It is important to reduce environmental degradation, as degraded land can turn into a sort of desert with low-quality soil.
“From a political point of view, we must develop methods for conflict prevention and resolution,” believes Professor Susanne Schmeier.