"Applying a 'social cost of carbon' of 185 US dollars (178 euros) per tonne of CO₂ equivalent, Russia's liability after three years of war now exceeds 42 billion US dollars," states the latest report, co-authored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
"More than three million hectares of Ukrainian forest have been destroyed in the fighting, and a third of the country's territory has been mined – exactly three years since Putin's Russia launched its full-scale invasion," says Ukraine's Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources, Svitlana Grīnčuka, stating that "6,500 crimes against the environment and a bill for more than 40 billion dollars in losses are 'only the tip of the iceberg'".
"Including the loss of natural resources (which also covers conflict timber transported through the closed Chernobyl zone), that figure could be much, much higher," said S. Grinčuka, adding that the scale of mining currently makes Ukraine's forests the most dangerous on earth.
The statement came after a report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which the Ukrainian government has endorsed as a means of holding Russia to account for the damage caused by the war, estimated that since 24 February 2022 total CO₂ emissions have exceeded 230 million tonnes.
Over the 12 months to January, Ukraine's emissions rose by 31%. They now equal the combined emissions of Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovenia, while the European Forest Fire Information System shows that fires caused by the fighting have burned 92,100 hectares of forest.
Significantly, fires in forests on or near the front lines have more than doubled, reaching 25.8 million tonnes of CO₂ emitted, which is 118% more than the average during the war in previous years.
"Sources of ignition during the war include, for example, shelling by both sides (explosions), the firing of munitions, drone strikes, mine blasts and soldiers lighting campfires," says the report's lead author, Lennard de Klerk. "Because of the ongoing hostilities and mining, firefighters cannot reach the areas concerned, so the fires that break out grow much larger and more intense, and stop only once every tree and shrub has burned out."
The war has substantially increased emissions, because vast areas of Ukrainian forest have been destroyed. This destruction is deepening the environmental crisis and heightening concerns about climate change.
De Klerk notes that what was different last year was the unusually dry weather along the front lines. Combined with several heatwaves, this produced a very high fire-danger weather index: "Climate change has made such weather far more likely. So you see that climate change creates the conditions for forest fires, and the war intensifies them further, releasing carbon emissions that drive even greater climate change. It is a vicious cycle of destruction."
As the fighting intensified, emissions from military activity rose steadily over the past 12 months, overtaking the other main category of carbon cost – the reconstruction of damaged buildings and infrastructure. The report states that "warfare has now become the largest source of emissions. Fossil fuels burned by vehicles such as armoured vehicles and fighter jets – the biggest fuel consumers – account for the largest share of these emissions, namely 74 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent."
The study's authors argue that Russia should be held responsible for the war's emissions and the resulting damage to the climate.
"The full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine is now in its fourth year. The analysis shows that environmental damage knows no borders. The war is deepening the climate crisis that the whole world faces today," said Svitlana Grinčuka. "This report is an important document for holding Russia to account for the harm it is doing to us all.