Reducing timber harvesting would bring small gains at a high cost

In the debate over the future of forestry in Europe, proposals to reduce logging and expand protected forest areas occupy a prominent place, but according to a new assessment, such measures could trigger a fall in production, the loss of tens of thousands of jobs and higher costs for society, without delivering any climate benefits in return.

A recent analysis of the impact of forestry in Sweden shows that a more restrictive national forestry policy would have far-reaching consequences for the country's economy, employment and energy supply. The study was carried out by Tomas Thuresson, former head of the Forestry Department at the Swedish Forest Agency and a forestry-science PhD, together with Runar Brännlund, professor emeritus of economics at Umeå University's Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics. It was commissioned by the Swedish Cellulose Corporation (Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget).

Jonas Mårtensson, head of forestry at the Swedish Cellulose Corporation, notes that the report highlights both the substantial benefits of active forest management and the risks created by the pursuit of simple solutions.

"Actively managed forests generate enormous economic and climate benefits. The basic principle is felling mature forest and replacing it with new forest that can go on absorbing carbon dioxide. It also forms the basis for renewable products that replace concrete, steel, plastic and other emissions-intensive materials," explains J. Mårtensson.

"The whole forestry system, which delivers significant climate benefits, is also profitable and creates value – jobs, investment, export earnings and tax revenue. In my view, the report illustrates how easily, in the pursuit of simple solutions, one can lose sight of the bigger picture and put at risk a sector so important to society, in return for next to nothing," he continues.

The researchers analysed the possible impact of several policy proposals currently being actively debated in the development of European Union forestry policy. These include recommendations to reduce logging, establish new nature reserves, and develop so-called close-to-nature forestry, which involves wider use of continuous-cover forestry methods instead of clear-felling.

Less production, fewer jobs

The study concludes that a reduction in logging would have an almost directly proportional effect on the output of raw forest material. If logging fell by 15%, production and economic value would decline by a similar amount.

The greatest impact would come from the close-to-nature forestry scenario, which would mean applying continuous-cover forestry methods to half of Sweden's managed forests and leaving a larger share of forest land to develop naturally. The analysis shows that logging would then fall by 25-30% and the supply of sawlogs – for several decades – by 30-40%. This would result in the loss of 25,000-35,000 jobs and a fall in added value to as little as a third of its current level.

"Restricting forestry in Sweden is a costly illusion that, in practice, would shift logging to other countries, weaken the economy, cost jobs and reduce our contribution to climate action. In my view, it is a clearly ineffective approach that would also hold back the transition from fossil to renewable resources," says T. Thuresson.

The analysis points to limited climate benefits

The central question addressed in the report is how reduced logging would affect the climate. The analysis shows that harvesting less timber could increase carbon storage in forests in the short term, but that forest growth would decline over the longer term, which, in the authors' view, would reduce carbon accumulation in both forests and wood products.

The researchers argue that following this path could reduce the climate benefits delivered by forest products. When wood is used in buildings, packaging or energy systems, it replaces materials and energy sources associated with higher CO₂ emissions from fossil resources. If Sweden's supply of timber fell, this would weaken the so-called substitution effect.

The report also highlights the risk of carbon leakage. If demand for wood products remains unchanged while production in Sweden falls, that production may simply shift to countries with higher emission levels.

"Leaving aside the material-substitution effect and carbon leakage, the expected climate benefits of the measures under discussion do not justify their cost. And if carbon leakage is taken into account, the possibility cannot be excluded that the overall climate impact of the measures would be negative," stresses R. Brännlund.

The impact of these plans reaches well beyond the forestry sector

The consequences of the measures under discussion would not be confined to the forestry sector alone. Forest biomass currently accounts for almost 40% of Sweden's energy consumption, so a reduced supply of raw material could affect the energy system, particularly district heating networks in the larger cities.

The analysis also shows that the socio-economic costs of new nature reserves would be considerable, estimated at roughly twice the cost of purchasing the land outright.

In the authors' view, the priority going forward should be to maximise the positive climate impact of Sweden's forests through active forest management and the development of resource-efficient products and materials.

"If the real goal is climate improvement – that is, a global reduction in emissions rather than merely a national one – Sweden needs to focus on active forestry and continued development of the sector. That will also secure a higher level of employment in Sweden," stresses R. Brännlund.

Photograph by Michael Engman used. Text in Swedish.