Last autumn saw a change of power in Poland, when, after eight years of rule by the right-wing populist party Law and Justice, the so-called pro-European coalition led by former European Council president Donald Tusk took over. Since then, however, despite its ambitious plans, the country's new government has been unable to take a significant number of decisions on the energy sector transition. Progress could be held up further by the current electoral period.
In the spotlight ahead of the European Parliament elections
Poland is in the middle of an electoral process. The local elections held in Poland on 7 April were won by the opposition party Law and Justice with 34% of the vote, followed by Donald Tusk's Civic Platform (31%), the Third Way coalition (14%), the Confederation and independents (7%) and the Left (6%). The result amounts to a small loss for the country's governing coalition (Civic Platform, Third Way, the Left). The next test will come when Polish citizens vote in the European Parliament elections on 6–9 June 2024. Anti-European forces within Law and Justice and the Confederation are using criticism of the European Green Deal to win over undecided voters. Even moderate politicians such as Polska 2050's Szymon Hołownia have said they oppose a new tax on internal combustion engine cars, in a bid to attract voters from the right-wing parties. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that scepticism towards the European Green Deal is growing. A recent survey indicates that one reason for the dissatisfaction (10% of Poles surveyed) is declining support for further European integration and for the Green Deal. The final step in the electoral cycle will be the presidential election in May 2025.
European Green Deal targets in the European Union election campaign in Poland
According to the results of a survey conducted on 24 April, a growing number of Poles are dissatisfied with deeper European Union (EU) integration. 77% of Poles surveyed support the country's EU membership, compared with 92% in June 2022 and 85% in April 2023. Public sentiment on EU membership varies, ranging from limited sovereignty (21%) and the need to align Polish legislation with European regulation (15%) through to the European Green Deal (10%). The main opposition party, Law and Justice, has focused on European climate policy in its election campaign. The party leader has stated that scrapping the European Green Deal and changing migration rules are among his party's main objectives. Debate on the energy transition has taken a prominent place in public discussion in Poland, as the energy crisis and economic consequences triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine are keenly felt. The European Green Deal is therefore one of the key issues in the final weeks of the election campaign.
What to expect in Poland over the coming weeks
The government has announced "audits" of several state projects, including the Polish Nuclear Power Programme (PNEP). These could lead to personnel changes and, more broadly, they mean a review of state-owned companies' strategies. The PNEP sets out that Poland wants its first nuclear reactor to be operating by 2033 and total generating capacity to reach 6–9 GW by 2043. The role of nuclear power is to provide the electricity sector with baseload generation so that renewable energy can be developed securely. Poland officially regards nuclear power as an instrument of the energy transition. According to the PNEP, "nuclear energy will have an important place in limiting climate change and ensuring security of supply". The fate of proposals for small modular reactors (SMRs) from GE Hitachi, NuScale Power and other companies remains unclear. The Ministry of Climate and Environment is considering drawing up a separate SMR strategy rather than updating the nuclear power programme (PNEP). Nuclear power also enjoys broad public support – in a recent survey, 83% of the population backed it.
At the same time, talks continue on the financing scheme for Poland's first nuclear power plant in Pomerania, possibly using contracts for difference. Construction of the project was originally due to begin in 2026, but the audit of the nuclear programme could change the timetable. The project is being developed by the state-owned company Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe together with its US partners Bechtel and Westinghouse. The audit was originally planned for completion in April 2024, but that deadline was missed. Independent analysts say the first nuclear reactor will be started up in 2035 or later (instead of the planned 2033), as delays are apparent at several stages.
A change to the framework of coal asset reform, not its substance. The separation of Poland's coal assets from its energy companies is being assessed by the Ministry of State Assets in cooperation with the Ministry of Industry. Polska Grupa Energetyczna, Tauron, Enea and Energa say they cannot finance the energy transition without divesting themselves of coal, because financial and insurance groups are refusing to work with companies whose assets include a large share of fossil fuels. The four energy companies named above generate roughly 70% of Poland's electricity, so securing their future is critically important for energy prices and for public support for the energy transition. How the separation of coal assets proceeds depends largely on whether the new governing coalition continues the reforms of the state coal asset agency (Narodowa Agencja Bezpieczeństwa Energetycznego) or opts to put forward a new proposal. Critics claim the government simply plans to repackage the reforms in order to carry on implementing them under a new name. Government officials warn that Poland will need subsidies for coal generation after 2028 to back up intermittent renewable supply while the country's first nuclear power plant is being built.
The "liberalisation" of wind power plants
Poland has yet to implement liberalisation, that is, a relaxation of the requirements governing where onshore wind farms may be sited. A new law backed by Poland's wind energy industry, which aims to change the permitted distance from settlements from 700 metres to 500 metres, has still to go through consultation. The government will table the law in June 2024. It could become an issue in the European Parliament election campaign.
Latest news from Poland – a round-up of the past month
First recovery plan payment
On 15 April, Poland received its first payment from the EU recovery plan, worth 6.3 billion euros. The payment broke the deadlock during which the funds had been frozen over EU concerns about judicial independence and democracy in Poland under the previous government. Poland can now begin spending money from the first payment, allocating 199 million euros to reducing air pollution in cities by subsidising a phase-out of fossil-fuel-based heating. The Ministry of Climate and Environment wants to use around 25 billion euros of the almost 60 billion euros awarded to Poland in total to advance the energy transition. Ultimately, however, the scale and pace of spending depend on government decisions and on the effectiveness of the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management. This is Poland's so-called "green bank", responsible for managing state subsidies for the energy transition. Poland's total of 59.8 billion euros consists of 25.27 billion euros in grants and 34.54 billion euros in loans. By way of comparison, Poland's planned budget expenditure for 2024 is around 200 billion euros.
Cuts to energy price subsidies
Poland has decided to scale back its energy price subsidies. Until now the country had set caps on electricity and natural gas prices for every household. The ceiling is set to rise from around 412 to 500 zloty (roughly 95 euros to 125 euros) per MWh (excluding VAT and excise duty). The new regulation will also introduce an energy voucher in the form of a one-off supplement for the poorest households.
The German-Polish Energy Transition Forum takes place on 17 May
The forum will be held in Berlin (last year it took place in Warsaw). Ahead of the official event, a reception will be held at the Polish Embassy in Berlin, hosted by Polish Secretary of State Urszula Zielińska.
EuroNews.Green – Poland is part of a wider nuclear alliance in Europe which argues that nuclear reactors will play a major role in the energy transition and are essential for security of supply.
CEE Energy News – the Polish and German TSOs are working together to create a Nordic-Baltic hydrogen corridor. The aim is to connect Germany with Poland, the Baltic states and Finland via a dedicated hydrogen pipeline supported by EU funds.
Letzte Generation a la Pologne – young Polish activists are emulating the Letzte Generation movement in Germany with acts of civil protest. The movement is unhappy with the new government's climate policy. It has to be said that these activities are notable for their breaches of public order.