With external demand continuing to grow, manufacturing output in September 2025 rose at its fastest year-on-year rate since June 2022. Growth has now continued for the seventh consecutive month.

Industries oriented towards the domestic market also continue to make a positive contribution to growth. Their performance is shaped by household purchasing power, including wage growth, tax changes, the stabilisation of prices and other factors.

Compared with September 2024, unadjusted data show that manufacturing output volumes grew by 11.3%, while calendar-adjusted data show a somewhat more moderate increase of 8.5%.

Across the first three quarters of 2025 as a whole, unadjusted data show that manufacturing output was 4.5% higher than a year earlier.

In September this year, unadjusted year-on-year data show that the most significant positive contribution to manufacturing growth came, for the fourth month running, from the two largest sub-sectors – wood processing (+12.8%) and food manufacturing (+13%). Output also rose in fabricated metal products (16%), motor vehicles and trailers (+37%) and computer, electronic and optical equipment (+14.5%).

In September, manufacturing turnover at current prices rose sharply year on year, by 14.1%. Volumes of goods sold grew faster in export markets, by 16.1%, and more moderately on the domestic market, by 10.5%. Sales volumes of wood processing products and food rose substantially.

Manufacturing is expected to maintain steady growth in the final quarter of the year as well, and for the year as a whole its output volumes will significantly exceed the 2024 level. Manufacturing growth will continue to be driven by demand in external markets and by rising export volumes.

At the same time, positive developments in industry continue to be held back by geopolitical uncertainty and possible US import tariffs, which may affect the competitiveness of Latvian exporting companies. Overall, although the forecasts are positive, it will be essential for the sector to remain flexible and able to adapt to changing global trade conditions. Challenges will persist for those companies whose operations are still tied to the markets of Russia and other CIS countries – these companies must continue to restructure their partnerships and seek new supply and sales markets.