It seems that carbon sequestration in Finland will not increase in the coming years, which means that Finland will have to take other measures to reach EU climate targets in the land-use sector. This is stated in a recently published report by the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Natural Resources Institute Finland, Luke).
The Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry asked the Institute to explain the reasons why this situation has arisen. Preliminary information was received in May, and it was confirmed by new figures at the end of last year: the land-use sector is now a source of emissions, which is linked to high volumes of logging and the slow growth of Finland's forests.
Finland's forests are still carbon sinks, but in 2021 this happened to a much lesser extent than in the previous year, and the volume sequestered is no longer large enough to cover emissions from the land-use sector.
The carbon sequestration calculated for climate targets does not include all of Finland's forests and land, but takes into account changes in forest and land use during the relevant year. Although carbon is released from wetlands and agricultural land, it can be sequestered in wood products and forests.
Pine growth is slower than expected
According to the Institute's new report, a large part of the reason for the slowdown in forest growth is pine trees.
The age structure of pine forests has reached a stage where growth is naturally slowing down. Based on this factor, growth will remain at approximately the same level in the coming years or even decrease slightly. In addition, pine growth has had three difficult years due to drought. In northern Finland, growth was extremely low in 2018 due to dry weather conditions, while in the following two years, growth was weakened by an unusually large number of cones.
Environmental factors such as temperature, precipitation, and the length of the growing season will influence pine growth in the coming years.
High harvest last year and this year
In 2018, a record volume of timber was harvested in Finland, and 2021 saw the second-highest logging volume. It now looks as if the harvest from forests in 2022 will reach 2021 levels: by October 2022, the timber harvest was only 3% behind that of 2021.
The demand for domestic timber has increased and, according to the Institute, will rise even further in the coming years due to new investment decisions and the end of timber imports from Russia.
Otherwise, no significant changes in land use are observed, and the Institute does not anticipate that they will occur during the 2021-2025 reporting period. Therefore, the main explanation for the reduction in carbon sequestration in the land-use sector is forest growth and logging.
“One of the conclusions is that logging practices have changed for the worse in the 2000s, especially thinning. It is being carried out too intensively, with too many trees being removed relative to the area. This reduces growth,” says Kari T. Korhonen, head of the research department at the Institute.