According to data from the Natural Resources Institute Finland (hereinafter – Luke), Finland's target of becoming a carbon-neutral country by 2035 is far from being achieved. In the latest climate plan assessment for the land-use sector, Luke researchers point out that this goal is becoming increasingly unattainable, primarily because recent and planned logging volumes are hindering the ability of forests to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Calculations indicate that the land-use sector could be significant until 2035. Emissions may increase, while carbon sequestration will effectively remain at its current level because the volume of logging in Finland is high. It should be noted that, due to sanctions, it is no longer possible to replace the demand for wood with imports from Russia.
Luke researchers have calculated that the amount of carbon dioxide sequestered by forests could be only one-fifth of what is required (what needs to be sequestered) to meet the carbon neutrality goal and comply with commitments set under the Climate Act. Meanwhile, efforts to curb emissions from agricultural land are unlikely to create the necessary positive turn in the overall balance.
“It is clear that the climate goals cannot be met, as the land-use sector needs to be a significant carbon sink. Most of the changes in the calculations are due to the increase in demand for wood, the rest – are revised, higher emissions from peatlands,” Juha Mikola, Research Director at Luke, commented on the situation to the Finnish broadcaster YLE on 22 February.
These estimates are the first attempt to assess the impact of measures set by the previous government on agriculture and carbon sequestration in forests. The Finnish Parliament incorporated the carbon neutrality principle into the Climate Act in 2022. On the path to this goal, it has been set that carbon sinks must absorb more than 20 million tonnes of fossil and agricultural emissions, for example, by 2035. It is also intended that all emissions should be reduced by at least half compared to the current level. This is very difficult, especially in the transport sector. Radio YLE pointed out that a 10-million-tonne deficit in the land-use sector will persist even if transport emissions were completely eliminated.
“This is a serious and complex situation. There are enough studies, and nothing should stop us from making the right decisions,” Professor Raisa Mäkipää, a researcher at Luke, emphasised to the public broadcaster.
Both Finland and the European Union have based their carbon sequestration policies on the assumption that emissions from wood-using industries could be sequestered in wood products or growing forests. According to 2021 data, the greatest efforts to meet the European Union's 2030 carbon sequestration targets must be made by Finland, Germany, and Poland. According to 2022 data, this target has moved even further out of reach for Finland.
“If you started monitoring emissions from wood-using industries and energy production, it would create an incentive for carbon dioxide absorption, which in turn means that emission charges could be avoided,” predicted R. Mäkipää.
Along with the forest sector, a significant source of emissions in the land-use sector is peatlands
Professor Kristiina Lång of the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Kristiina Lång) told the public broadcaster that emissions could be reduced by converting peatlands into so-called climate wetlands. This is the only measure in the agricultural sector for which funding was initially planned. She added that taking a few tens of thousands of hectares of peatland out of use in the agricultural sector would significantly reduce emissions without threatening food production. “It is the most cost-effective measure,” emphasised K. Lång.
Although the government of Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (NCP) refers to strengthening carbon sequestration in its action plan, it has announced that, despite the change in circumstances, it will not update the climate plan for the land-use sector in the coming years. Given the growing concerns about carbon sequestration, several stakeholders and organisations, such as the Finnish Economic Policy Council, have called on the Finnish government to update this plan. The Council explained its position as follows – failure to renew carbon sequestration could lead to additional costs and negatively affect taxpayers.
The Finnish Climate Change Panel has estimated that a larger emission reduction in the energy sector could create a need for net sequestration slightly less than 20 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
Luke representatives stated on 22 February that the measures set a few years ago to reduce emissions and strengthen carbon sequestration would be a step in the right direction. The Finnish government, however, has already abandoned the proposed measures for forest regeneration and paludiculture on peatlands. The government has also delayed a bill on the introduction of land-use fees, which was intended to prevent deforestation.
https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/24941-finland-falling-well-short-of-climate-neutrality-target-researchers-view.html