Almost ten years after the previous attack on Ukraine (Crimea in 2014), a emboldened, energized and dissatisfied Vladimir Putin, who is to some extent more isolated and paranoid than ever, has brazenly invaded the neighbouring country again. Unlike in 2014, Ukraine and the rest of the world were better prepared. The Russian president misjudged the world's reaction and did not foresee how fierce Ukraine's resistance would be. Errors are also evident in the estimates of Russian public support, which certainly did not take into account what state and NGO representatives would be prepared to do to pull the veil off his lies. National governments rallied, implementing the broadest, most coordinated package of sanctions ever imposed on any country.

Is that enough?

Many observers have discussed changes in Putin's character: some claim he is rational, others say he is losing touch with reality. It should be added that people, even those who are authoritarian by nature, are not consistent, so to some extent both views can be true. With that in mind, the democratic world must think about what kind of exit Russia and Ukraine can find or will be forced to accept.

To save his own (and the country's) prestige, Putin would attempt to change the Ukrainian government and/or achieve Ukraine's
demilitarisation, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO or the European Union. He has said this in conversations with French President Emmanuel Macron. The wars in Syria and Chechnya show that Putin will continue to escalate the situation, imposing a very high cost on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for resisting.

Three scenarios

Deadlock: a lose-lose situation. A partial defeat for Putin could involve the Donetsk and Luhansk regions
being taken under Russian control or becoming autonomous regions, as well as the recognition of Crimea as part of Russia. The West would have to agree to a gradual lifting of sanctions in exchange for the withdrawal of Russian troops. Private companies could be persuaded to engage in business with Russia again. Afterwards, Putin would punish dissenters in parliament, his inner circle, and take further steps to suppress anti-government sentiment. The media will be censored, and Russia could adopt China's model of cyber sovereignty to control the flow of information within the country. To prevent further casualties, Zelenskyy would agree to a ceasefire. This would leave another frozen conflict, which might be slightly hotter than others on Russia's borders, but Zelenskyy would retain control of the government, and Ukraine would likely join the EU. Ukraine will need support to rebuild its infrastructure and economy, and a new 'cleansing' of pro-Russian politicians, citizens and activists will likely follow. The massive
refugee crisis will be difficult to prevent, as more than 3 million Ukrainians have fled, and millions more are expected to follow in the coming weeks... (...)