At present, in line with previous forecasts, firewood prices are continuing their steady decline, with aspen firewood reaching 50 €/m³. Meanwhile, prices for spruce and pine sawlogs have reached a state of equilibrium. According to information gathered by E-silva, the largest forest auction system in Latvia, the approach of the new construction season and the absence of timber imports from Russia and Belarus could create favourable conditions for a rise in spruce and pine sawlog prices.

The Latvian spring, with its significant rainfall, continues to dictate the availability of felling sites, with prices rising more rapidly for those that are drier and located closer to roads, as opposed to those situated deeper in the forest with complex access infrastructure. Consequently, preparations for warmer and drier weather are underway for felling operations; however, once work resumes, logging will be heavily restricted by the red zones established to curb the spread of bark beetles. The limited number of felling sites available for harvesting will foster favourable conditions for an increase in forest property sale prices, making this the right time for forest and felling site owners to participate in auctions and secure higher profits.

The second 'bark beetle effect', meanwhile, will be felt by the logging industry. The high timber prices of the past year led to increased demand for logging and sawing services, which gave industry companies the opportunity to invest in development. However, the declared state of emergency will reduce the number of available felling sites, which will accordingly affect the volume of work for local loggers and sawmills. The shortage of Latvian timber will be mitigated by the import of finished timber products from Scandinavia. Consequently, in interaction with the start of the construction season in late April and the absence of Russian and Belarusian timber, the demand for and value of coniferous sawlogs on the market could increase.

The firewood segment has entered a 'quieter' period. It is expected that prices will begin a slow rise after May, when households and businesses begin preparations for the new heating season.

The spring's (un)expected guest – the bark beetle

In autumn and winter, the price of coniferous sawlogs was stable with no significant changes, as a shortage of spruce and pine timber maintained an unusual price balance. Comparing the average price of large pine sawlogs in November with March, the decline is only 3%, with the current price holding at 94 €/m³. Conversely, a slight increase is observed for medium pine sawlogs and small logs, as well as for large and medium spruce sawlogs and small logs, which could gradually signal a rise in demand.

With the declaration of a state of emergency in spruce stands, coniferous logging will become significantly more restricted, which will drive demand for felling sites that are not in protected zones; therefore, those forest owners will have the opportunity to make a higher profit from selling their timber. In turn, the missing timber will be replaced by wood imported from Scandinavia, which will affect the work volume and, consequently, the profits of local loggers.

Birch price experiences a decline

The average price of birch veneer logs reached its peak in November at 149 €/m³, which has fallen by 3% over a four-month period, with the largest decline occurring in March, reaching 143 €/m³.

Compared to February, birch timber for packaging has also finally experienced a decline, with the highest price being 4% lower, reaching 120 €/m³. It should be noted that the logging ban in spruce stands applies to those felling sites where the dominant tree species is spruce, which is why the price of birch may also see a slight increase in the coming months.

Firewood finally returns to the €50 category

Despite a small price rise at the beginning of the year, the highest price for aspen firewood in March fell to 50 euros per cubic metre, which is a 17% decrease compared to the price in February. This price was last recorded a year ago, when the unexpected rise in timber prices began. It is predicted that firewood prices could continue their decline until May and resume a slow rise in the summer as the new heating season approaches.

Steady decline observed for pulpwood

In March, the highest price for birch pulpwood fell to 77 €/m³, a decline of almost 8% compared to February. Meanwhile, the price of spruce and pine pulpwood has decreased to 75 €/m³.