DB drew attention to the fact that something might be wrong with weather conditions this year both at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. The bad news then was that a rather strong La Niña phenomenon had been making itself felt for some time. The so-called La Niña means a more rapid cooling of the Pacific Ocean surface than usual (the opposite process to this is the El Niño phenomenon). The materialisation of the La Niña phenomenon tends to mean significantly higher rainfall in Southeast Asia and Australia. In turn, greater drought in such a case is usually expected in Brazil, Argentina and the southern part of the USA. Essentially, the periodic materialisation of strong versions of these phenomena (including El Niño) means that weather conditions become more extreme – for example, floods are larger, storms are more destructive and droughts are more devastating.

The disappointing news is that a second La Niña phenomenon in a row could materialise. This, for instance, is reported by Bloomberg, which highlights what the US Climate Prediction Center has said in this regard.

Armies of economists and financial market participants also pay periodic attention to what meteorologists say. For example, if a severe drought is forecast in one region, it means that the harvest of certain agricultural commodities may be lower. Devastating floods and storms can also affect the price of a wide variety of raw materials and the dynamics of entire economic sectors. For now, projections are mainly linked to the recovery from the global pandemic and the calming of inflation (after some volatility this year). However, the fact that food is expensive and is becoming ever more expensive can have a very significant impact. It has already been written that this can have various consequences, such as growing geopolitical instability.

For example, the so-called Arab Spring observed 10 years ago is linked directly to the rise in food prices. Back then, food prices were driven up by both devastating drought and the fact that some countries decided to stop exporting certain food commodities. What followed triggered a huge flow of people to Europe, or the start of the so-called refugee crisis, which has already had and will continue to have a huge impact on various processes on the old continent. Now, too, it may make the already pressing refugee crisis even more pronounced.