Finland will not succeed in becoming carbon neutral by 2035. Consequently, the national target will not be met. This is indicated by an emissions forecast published by Etla Economic Research at the end of November.
On 27 November, Etla announced that Finland's greenhouse gas emissions would decrease by approximately four percent annually between 2023 and 2027. Since the land-use sector (LULUCF – land use, land-use change and forestry) is forecast to be, at best, only an insignificant carbon sink, it will unfortunately be impossible to reach the carbon neutrality target set in the 2022 Climate Change Act with such performance levels.
The decline in removals in the land-use sector has effectively offset the drop in greenhouse gas emission volumes since approximately 2010. As a result, net emissions have not changed significantly.
“Although emissions from industry have fallen relatively steadily, Finland’s net emissions have not changed. To achieve the carbon neutrality target, net emissions must be reduced to zero by 2035. It is already clear that the target cannot be reached with current trends,” stated Ville Kaitila, a researcher in the forecasting department at Etla.
It is crucial to continue reducing the use of fossil fuels by transitioning to lower-emission production technologies and strengthening carbon removals, according to representatives of the research centre.
Over the last twelve years or so, carbon sequestration in Finland’s land-use sector has fallen significantly. In 2021, for the first time in history, the land-use sector became an emissions source. Etla points out that the intensity of logging directly affects the volume of forest carbon sinks and, consequently, the emission balance of the entire sector. It should also be emphasised that agricultural land is also a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions.
In 2020, greenhouse gas emissions in the country fell by more than nine percent as the Covid-19 pandemic restricted travel – by air, road and sea. Emissions from energy production also decreased significantly. When the economy recovered in 2021, emissions remained at the same level, and by 2022 they fell by only four percent.
Etla representative V. Kaitila pointed out that greenhouse gas emissions are consolidated in certain sectors and generally result from the use of fossil fuels. “During this year, the production of emission-free electricity has increased noticeably. The greatest impact has still been the reduction in emissions from energy production,” he noted in a press release. V. Kaitila emphasised that there have also been positive developments. The use of fossil fuels in transport is falling increasingly rapidly, and production is largely covered by the scope of the emissions trading system. Companies are being encouraged to invest in low-emission technologies, and plans are in place to expand the emissions trading system. By the end of the forecast period in 2027, transport will also be included.
In its editorial at the end of November, Helsingin Sanomat emphasised that the Finnish government has not yet supported the ambitious climate goals set within the European Union. While these goals have earned global recognition and include many different measures, the Finnish government has instead cancelled or even reduced funding for climate action.
As the newspaper notes, the implementation of the emissions reduction plan for housing, transport and food production has been partially halted. The obligation for the distribution of renewable transport fuels was reduced. Funding for the energy transition and subsidies for public transport were restricted.
The government has also refrained from allocating funding to commitments to reduce agricultural emissions by 29%. This was a promise made by the previous government. Funding for the promotion of paludiculture, which is considered one of the most important measures in Finland’s land-use sector, has been postponed. Relevant officials had carried out preparatory work regarding payments for land-use change. However, because the government insisted that climate measures must not create costs, this type of funding will not be introduced.
“The Finnish idioms ‘empty promise’ and ‘self-deception’ can be applied to these kinds of ‘bold goals’ that in reality contain neither genuine effort nor meaningful measures,” writes Helsingin Sanomat.
Minister of Climate and the Environment Kai Mykkänen (Kai Mykkänen (NCP)) announced in an interview with the newspaper last summer that “stopping chimneys from smoking, i.e. carbon capture and storage solutions, is the government programme’s main climate measure.”
In this context, it should be noted that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated: “Carbon capture should play only a minor role in reducing emissions and achieving global climate goals...”
It is clear that the balance between emission reduction efforts and carbon removal solutions is the main issue at the COP28 world leaders' summit in Dubai. The United Arab Emirates is one of the world's largest oil producers, and according to a report published by the BBC, they are planning to use their hosting of the Assembly also as an opportunity to conclude oil and gas deals.