The volume of timber recorded in felling permits fell by more than 30% last year, or by almost 4 million m³; forestry industry operators, however, advise against rushing to conclusions.
State Forest Service data show that in 2024 the volume of timber authorised for felling was 15.35 million m³, whereas in 2023 it was 19.24 million m³. In effect, in terms of the timber volume recorded in felling permits, last year saw a "return" to 2020.
In state forests, a total of 7 million m³ of timber was authorised for felling in 2024, which is 1.29 million m³ less than the year before. In private owners' forests, meanwhile, 8.35 million m³ of timber was authorised last year, which is 2.6 million m³ less than in 2023. It should be recalled that (since 2011) permits issued for tree felling are valid for three years (for trees felled in a sanitary felling, the felling permit is valid for two calendar years, whereas for trees felled in all other types of felling it is valid for three calendar years from the year of issue).
A forest owner may not carry out the felling at all, even though the permit has been obtained, and the volume of timber stated in it does not yet mean that exactly that much will be felled. Experience from previous years shows that the volume authorised for felling is always greater than the volume actually felled. Although state and private forests in Latvia are roughly equal in area, the volume of timber earmarked for felling in state forests is smaller than in private ones.
A bouquet of factors
Several private forest owners explained that the main factor dampening the desire to fell mature stands was the sale price of roundwood or standing trees, as well as the weather conditions – a winter without any significant period of frost. As a result, it was not possible to harvest forests situated in wetter locations. Some of the forest owners surveyed admitted that they hope to wait for the moment when demand for timber resources rises, and that they will then apply for felling permits. Of course, timber can be stored for a while in the green warehouse (the forest), but this cannot be done for long, as it loses quality.
Does not reflect the situation
"The volume of timber recorded in felling permits is not the statistical indicator that could show the real picture in forestry. Experience shows that there is a difference between that figure and the volume of growing stock actually felled in a given cutting area, and it may be even more significant in thinnings," comments Modris Fokerots, one of the largest forest owners in Latvia. He points to another important factor, namely that for many years now felling permits have been valid not only in the particular calendar year in which they were issued, but also in subsequent years. That is precisely why the situation is often as follows: a forest owner has taken out a felling permit but actually uses it a year or even more later, when harvesting conditions are suitable (for example, frost in winter) and the timber price is adequate.
"Everyone wants to earn, but if prices for timber assortments are low, then logically there is no point in going for a felling permit, all the more so if relatively recently – in the second half of 2022 – there were unprecedentedly high prices, which have now come back down to earth," M. Fokerots assesses. In his view, it all makes sense – low demand, low prices, and no need for felling permits. "Forestry is influenced and regulated more by the available harvesting capacity, which in Latvia is what it is; it is not possible to harvest considerably more," M. Fokerots stresses, recalling that a previous "boom" in taking out felling permits was seen shortly before the state fee for obtaining a permit changed. As is known, nothing of the sort happened last year.
An indicator light
"The volume of timber recorded in felling permits is not directly linked to woodworking companies' demand for resources; that is shown more by the volume of timber actually felled," is how Kristaps Klauss, Vice President of the Latvian Forest Industry Federation, assesses the situation. In his view, the volume of timber recorded in felling permits is a kind of indicator – a yellow light on the dashboard warning of a process under way that may in future also affect woodworking companies.
"The forest sector has been, is and will be very closely tied to foreign export markets, so it is affected by what happens in them – changes in demand, which also drag along corrections in price levels, strikes in competitor countries, breaks in logistics chains and, today, most probably the imposition of import duties as well," K. Klauss lists the factors that most substantially affect the sector, stressing that last year's volume of timber recorded in felling permits could be a kind of signal for woodworking companies, in these circumstances, to think about the availability of timber resources in the future.
"The situation can change radically, but harvesting capacity may not be able to respond to it adequately," says K. Klauss. In his view, the volume of timber recorded in felling permits has always exceeded the volume of timber actually felled. K. Klauss does not deny that a 30%, or 4 million m³, drop in the volume of timber recorded in felling permits is too striking and that logical explanations should be found for it, which need to be identified.
Waiting for the data
Several of the woodworking companies surveyed admitted that it is too early to draw conclusions, because 2024 has essentially been similar to 2023, and it is therefore important to see the volume of timber actually felled last year, and moreover broken down by tree species.
In addition, it was pointed out that for some time now it has not been possible to import and use products made from timber grown in Russia and Belarus in Latvia, which ought to be reflected in demand for timber not only in the Baltics but across Europe.
At the same time, both private forest owners and woodworking companies acknowledged that, with regard to obtaining timber resources in future, there are many questions arising from the requirements set out in European Union directives and regulations. National forest monitoring data show that on 1 January 2024 the forest area in Latvia was 3.311 million ha with a total growing stock of 677 million m³.
