A new report reveals the (almost) impossible task facing the US Departments of Agriculture and the Interior if they are to deliver on President Donald Trump's promise to supply the US with its own timber alone.
President Donald Trump has signed an executive order providing for millions of hectares of US forest to be “opened up” for timber harvesting. The new order rescinds an order by the previous president, Joe Biden, which in turn promised to “protect” old-growth forests from logging. Trump's order was signed just weeks after US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins pledged to increase timber harvesting in forests controlled by the US federal government.
It will be “incredibly difficult for Donald Trump to make up the shortfall in Canadian wood products in the coming years” without a substantial increase in production capacity, workforce and capital investment. Why? According to North American timber economics expert Austin Lamica (Fastmarkets), timber harvesting in US federal forests would have to increase by 450% to cover the shortfall created by restrictions on the availability of Canadian plywood, OSB and softwood lumber. As is well known, these materials are used in the construction of single-family and multi-family housing.
“In theory, there is enough timber on US federal land to offset the volume of softwood lumber imported from Canada,” the expert noted, but “increasing federal timber harvesting by (at least) 450% could be a serious challenge, as the government's ability to increase timber production may be constrained by many obstacles.”
Total harvest volumes would have to reach their highest level in 45 years
In April this year it was reported that US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins had granted the US Forest Service “broad powers” to harvest timber across more than 112 million acres (approx. 45.3 million ha) of national forest.
“The US Forest Service (USFS) and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) have at their disposal 1,400 billion cubic feet of net softwood sawtimber, which is an approximate figure,” Lamica stressed. “The US Forest Service database EVALIdator shows that 1,973 billion cubic feet of softwood is available across all federally owned forest land in the country. By comparison, private forest land in the US South and West holds 270 billion cubic feet and 211 billion cubic feet of softwood respectively.”
Lamica explains that these volumes also include areas where timber harvesting is impossible for logistical or economic reasons: “These calculations reflect volumes without taking regulatory or logistical constraints into account,” adding that since the early 1980s USFS timber harvest volumes have fallen considerably, owing to stricter environmental protection rules which, together with the impact of forest fires and a shrinking workforce, make increasing logging volumes extremely difficult.
“Historical data from a USFS report indicate that softwood timber accounts for more than 90% of total sawtimber harvest volumes. Using these historical averages, we conclude that USFS softwood sawtimber harvesting averages 1.4 billion cubic feet a year,” Austin Lamica stressed. Given average USFS softwood sawlog harvest volumes, a 25% increase in harvesting, as envisaged by Trump's executive order, would raise the average annual harvest by only 0.35 billion cubic feet, reaching a volume of 1.735 billion cubic feet a year.
“This increase is considerably smaller than the US federal softwood sawlog harvest volumes needed to offset supplies from Canada. Knowing how much additional harvesting is required to offset them, Austin Lamica noted that the minimum softwood volume needed is 7 billion cubic feet. Only then would supplies from Canada be offset. “If that were applied strictly to USFS softwood, total annual harvest volumes would have to rise to more than 8 billion cubic feet; that has not happened since the 1980s.”
Such a task looks extremely difficult. Lamica notes that in 2024 employment in logging in the US fell by 24% compared with 2015, affecting 40,000 workers. “This decline shows the difficulty involved in attracting the workers needed for logging and reducing dependence on Canadian supplies. What is more, the US federal government has implemented job and budget cuts in order to improve efficiency in state institutions. Reports indicate that 10% of USFS staff were laid off and that even greater job cuts are expected,” Lamica said.
Why does timber production capacity matter for housebuilding?
In March this year it was reported that restrictions on sawmill operations in the US and Canada have cut North American softwood lumber production capacity by 3.1 billion cubic feet. To make up this shortfall, the influential US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said that the key measures for managing construction costs are reducing tariffs on Canadian lumber, encouraging domestic production and cutting softwood and hardwood exports to China.
“In addition to framing lumber, plywood, OSB, particle board, fibreboard, shingles and tiles also account for a considerable share of the total material costs of a new home,” states NAHB's latest report on framing lumber prices. “Research by Home Innovation Research Labs indicates that the average American single-family home uses 200 square metres of softwood plywood, 630 square metres of OSB and around 15,000 cubic feet of framing lumber.”
There are also costs for built-in wall cupboards, windows, doors and roof rafters. “To account for manufacturer profit, lumber prices in these products are marked up by the percentage difference between revenue and the cost of goods in the wood products manufacturing sector,” NAHB notes. “As a result, changes in softwood lumber prices have a direct effect on new home prices. Together with wage growth for construction workers and higher interest rates, this is one of the reasons why the US housing market is experiencing a drop in sales.”