As cocoa production volumes fall, scientists have turned to a climate-resilient plant species that could save the chocolate industry, which is facing what is known as the climate barometer, as extreme weather threatens future cocoa harvests.
Most (roughly 60%) cocoa comes from West Africa, where it is grown in more humid regions such as Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, where high temperatures and heavy rainfall alternate with short dry seasons. Over the past two years cocoa production has fallen by 40%, driving chocolate prices up to levels not seen since the 1970s. Experts warn that by 2050 cocoa will no longer be available anywhere in the world.
How climate change threatens the chocolate industry
Many indicators already point to a downturn in the chocolate sector. Illegal gold mining, the age of the trees and cocoa smugglers have all been cited as causes, but the latest research suggests that the main reason is fluctuating rainfall in the regions concerned.
The Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University points out that cocoa's sensitivity to the weather is nothing new, but that climate change is “intensifying rainfall”, because overall temperatures are rising. For every 1 °C rise in air temperature, the atmosphere holds roughly seven per cent more moisture, which can produce more intense and heavier rainfall. “The physics is simple: a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which intensifies extreme rainfall,” the researchers note. “This causes waterlogging and soil erosion, and encourages fungal disease.”
The climate crisis has prompted scientists at the National University of Singapore to look for a solution.
Can scientists save the chocolate industry?
The researchers turned to the carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua), a climate-resilient plant of the Mediterranean region that has gradually become a promising alternative to cocoa.
Unlike cocoa, the carob tree grows in hot, dry climates, needs very little water and can survive periods of drought. Once roasted, its pods give off a “distinctive aroma” reminiscent of cocoa, although the taste is not quite what it should be.
To solve this problem, the team of scientists developed two methods of altering the plant's flavour using enzymes, in order to increase bitterness and enhance sweetness.
Enzyme treatment is a simple, clean method requiring minimal processing, compared with other methods that use aggressive chemicals such as hydrochloric acid to enhance flavour. The researchers believe that by improving the taste of carob, these methods could encourage confectioners to use it in foods that normally require cocoa, such as chocolate bars, cocoa powder, malted drinks and so on. If the method were adopted more widely, it could “significantly reduce” the chocolate industry's dependence on cocoa, making supply chains more resilient to climate change and outbreaks of crop disease.
“Our study is not just about imitating the flavour of cocoa – it is about the opportunity to diversify the ingredients we use to make chocolate alternatives,” says Manfred Ku, the study's lead author. “By shifting to resilient, climate-adapted crops such as carob, we can help the chocolate industry adapt to environmental challenges while offering consumers a product they will enjoy.”