As tensions rise in the Middle East and in response to swings in oil prices, 23% of Latvian residents say they are driving their own car less, according to a survey by the bank Citadele. People are adjusting their everyday habits while maintaining an attitude that is generally calm but cautious.
No significant shift in public behaviour has been seen so far. Overall, 51% of respondents say their habits have not changed, while 7% have begun building up additional fuel reserves.
Economist: the oil shock could turn into inflation and slower growth
“What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer seen as a short-lived shock to the oil market. The conflict in the Middle East is being assessed as a much broader risk that simultaneously affects fuel prices, inflation, the availability of energy resources and also a slowdown in economic growth, or even the likelihood of stagflation in Europe,” stresses Kārlis Purgailis, chief economist at the bank Citadele.
This is already reflected in the oil markets – the price of Brent has held above 100 US dollars a barrel in recent days, and the market is increasingly pricing in a scenario in which prices could climb even higher should disruptions prove more prolonged.
According to Kārlis Purgailis, if rising energy prices increasingly feed into inflation in the eurozone, the European Central Bank may be forced to act – if the higher cost of fuel also pushes up other prices and wages, tighter monetary policy could follow.
He notes that even under a relatively moderate scenario the OECD has already downgraded its growth forecasts and raised its inflation expectations because of the disruption in energy markets. Eurozone growth in 2026 is estimated at around 0.8%, and more prolonged turbulence in energy markets could slow it further while pushing inflation higher. That points to a classic scenario of slower growth and higher inflation – the risk of stagflation – which in the near term could become one of the main difficulties facing the European economy.
“The Latvian government's decision to cut excise duty on diesel is to be welcomed, and it will provide modest but necessary support. The decision's impact on the retail price of diesel is estimated at just 8.6 cents, and if the conflict drags on the government may have to consider more aggressive measures to deliver a noticeable saving in costs,” says Kārlis Purgailis.
Men are more likely to cut back on driving
The survey reveals that men have started economising by cutting back on the amount they drive more often than women (27% against 20%), which points to more active behaviour in conditions of uncertainty. Differences can also be seen between age groups. People aged 30-39 cut back on driving most often (29%), making this the most reactive group.
Among those aged 40-49, meanwhile, stability prevails – 56% of this group have not changed their habits. Young people (aged 18-29), on the other hand, are more likely than others to build up fuel reserves (10%), although this approach is not widespread overall.
Latgale – the strongest reaction
By region, the most pronounced change in behaviour is seen in Latgale, where 31% of residents say they drive their own car less – the highest figure in the country. In Riga and Kurzeme, by contrast, cutting back on driving is less common, at around 20%.
The bank Citadele carried out the survey of residents in cooperation with the research agency Norstat in March 2026, polling more than 1000 Latvian residents aged between 18 and 74 online.