Under a high-emissions scenario, forestry value could fall by 15% by 2100.
In July this year, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) published a high-resolution map of European forest management which reveals that more than 74% of forests consist of even-aged stands managed primarily for timber. Only 26% are closer to nature or unmanaged altogether, and these are valuable for their biodiversity and resilience. Intensive plantations of fast-growing monocultures such as eucalyptus and spruce dominate the “hotspots” – in Portugal, Spain and certain regions of Central Europe.
Forest fires, floods, heatwaves and pest outbreaks driven by climate change could destroy up to €247 billion worth of forest by 2100. That is twice the €115 billion currently estimated. That is, of course, unless forest owners and managers rethink forestry practices that are decades old. A study published in the scientific journal Nature warns of this possible future scenario.
The study “Rising cost of disturbances for forestry in Europe under climate change”, led by the scientist Johannes S. Mohr of the Technical University of Munich, concludes that under a high-emissions scenario the gross value added of Europe's forestry sector could fall by as much as 15%.
“Central Europe is becoming the continent's ‘hottest' area for the costs of climate-driven disturbance, with projected future losses reaching €19,885 per hectare,” said J. S. Mohr. He stressed that storms, timber pest outbreaks and extreme weather will cause the greatest losses in Europe's central regions. The rapid increase in timber growth brought about by warming in the boreal forest zone of Northern Europe may partly soften this catastrophic financial blow.
Over the past 20 years, climate-driven disturbance in Europe has more than doubled, causing tree mortality on a scale not seen for at least 170 years. Yet many forest management plans still favour even-aged conifer stands, which deliver maximum yield in stable conditions but result in enormous losses when disaster strikes. “By ignoring the risk of disturbance, traditional yield-oriented strategies leave themselves exposed to huge financial and ecological losses,” the study's authors warn.
Southern Europe faces the bleakest outlook
This region already has the lowest timber prices in Europe. The threat of drought and forest fires suggests they will continue to fall. The study's authors stress that although rising productivity may improve the situation in the forests of Northern Europe and parts of Central Europe, this will not happen in the south.
To limit economic losses and build resilience, the study calls for three key forestry reforms.
1. Diversify the species mix, so that no single disturbance factor can destroy large tracts of forest
2. Shorten the rotation period by at least five years. Field trials indicate that this can reduce losses linked to climate-driven disturbance by 10-20%
3. Establish mixed stands in which fast-growing tree species are combined with more resilient trees.
The study's authors warn that these measures affect carbon storage, biodiversity and habitat value, and so must be tailored to each region individually. Crucially, only under a low-warming scenario, which assumes a temperature rise of around 1.5 °C by the end of the century, does the increase in productivity outweigh the rise in disturbance costs across Europe as a whole. “Mitigating climate change can avert considerable disturbance-driven costs in the forestry sector,” says the lead author of the study, stressing that in future, if emissions are high, severe losses in Central and Southern Europe are all but inevitable. In recent years, a number of reports and studies have indicated that the forests of southern and south-eastern Europe are at particularly high risk from the global warming caused by climate change. This further compounds problems with timber supply.
It had already been concluded that more than 74% of all European forests are even-aged and in most cases managed for timber production. Europe's forests are rich in biodiversity and ecologically resilient, but only a quarter are closer to untouched nature or not managed at all.
About the study: Rising cost of disturbances for forestry in Europe under climate change.