There are around 1.2 billion vehicles on the world's roads today; by 2035, this number could rise to 2 billion.
Calculating the number of cars on our planet is a risky and highly imprecise endeavour, but one thing is clear – the number is growing rapidly.
The automotive industry magazine 'Ward's Auto' has calculated that in 2010 there may have been around one billion vehicles on Earth.
Industry analysts have estimated that the number of vehicles is now already 1.2 billion.
The 'assault' of road transport continues
Navigant Research estimates that passenger vehicles account for about 95% of the total number of cars. The number of vehicles we use in our daily lives will soon exceed 1.2 billion units.
The total global sales volume of new vehicles last year was 84 million units; Navigant believes that the annual sales volume could reach 127 million by 2035 – in total, calculating in absolute numbers, that would be 2 billion units or even more.
As noted by Green Car Congress, only 2.5% of them (out of 2 billion) will be battery electric, hybrid, or fuel cell vehicles – the rest, as before, will be powered by petrol or diesel, according to information provided by the industry.
Another 8% of cars will be powered by hybrid-electric or natural gas. Navigant predicts that 45% of all vehicles in use by 2035 will be fully equipped with start-stop systems.
Rough estimates
In its calculations, Ward's 'counted' passenger cars, light, medium, and heavy-duty trucks, as well as buses, excluding 'off-road' or heavy construction vehicles.
Of course, all such calculations are approximate.
Different countries have different registration and reporting requirements, and a small number of road vehicles may remain unlicensed (uncounted) each year.
Furthermore, there is additional environmental impact from off-road vehicles, agricultural and industrial equipment, all-terrain vehicles, etc., which may lack emission control equipment.
However, if 98% of cars are powered by petrol or diesel, you do not need nine decimal places of precision to understand the impact that an additional 20% of new vehicles will create.
When will there be 2 billion cars on Earth?
According to various estimates, the total number of vehicles worldwide could increase to 2.5 billion units by 2050.
For example, China still has far fewer vehicles (statistically) per person than Western countries. The Asian powerhouse is home to 1.3 billion of the world's 7 billion people, yet only 100 million vehicles travel along its roads.
If car ownership in China were similar to that in the US, the Asian nation would have at least 1 billion vehicles.
In contrast, the 300 million inhabitants of the US use about 250 million vehicles, and their total number is expected to grow in the future, albeit only gradually.
Reducing carbon emissions: 80% needed
2.5 billion cars in the 'global fleet' would mean that to maintain carbon emission levels at today's levels, the average fuel efficiency of the fleet would need to double.
If there is a desire to stabilise the progress of climate change, scientists suggest the need to reduce average carbon emissions by 80%.
This would require the majority of the world's fleet to use some other form of propulsion with much, much lower consumption of fossil resources and lower carbon emission levels.
(Translated from English)