The European Commission Vice-President has a rival in Latvia from his own party.

One of the most influential European Commissioners in recent decades looks set to be forced to fight for his position, as a high-ranking member of his own party has emerged as a contender.

Latvia's representative in the European Commission, Valdis Dombrovskis, one of the two Executive Vice-Presidents of the EC, has expressed his desire to serve a third term, but he faces an upcoming battle with Krišjānis Kariņš, who stepped down as Prime Minister in Riga two weeks ago.

The current five-year term of the EC ends in the autumn of 2024, and officials are already fighting for positions in the next administration or entering races for higher offices elsewhere.

Officials in Riga and Brussels are closely watching K. Kariņš following his resignation, especially after his vague statements about his future. Krišjānis Kariņš is no stranger to Brussels: he served two consecutive terms as a Member of the European Parliament before returning home to form a government in 2019.

Latvian representatives, whom we heard from and whose names we promised not to disclose so they could speak freely, claim that V. Dombrovskis wants to remain in the Commission and sees it as a given. They believe that both V. Dombrovskis and K. Kariņš will participate in the campaign for next year's European Parliament elections – a strategy that served Valdis Dombrovskis well in 2014 and 2019, as it was seen as a demonstration of support for him prior to his appointment to the Commission.

It was V. Dombrovskis, who is currently the EU's trade chief as well as responsible for economic matters, who set the Latvian rumour mill grinding on Wednesday by expressing his desire to run for a rare third term.

“I would be prepared to continue working in these directions,” V. Dombrovskis said to the Latvian Television programme Rīta Panorāma when asked about his future, pointing to unfinished work in Brussels as the bloc's economy struggles to recover from a severe pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

An American accent

V. Dombrovskis and K. Kariņš, who represent the same centre-right party Jaunā vienotība, both have strong arguments for taking a high-level EU post. Valdis Dombrovskis is also a former Prime Minister of Latvia.

In his second term at the EC, he received the title of Executive Vice-President, and despite his reserved demeanour, he holds significant influence within the European People's Party. His prospects might be higher given that other high-ranking commissioners – climate change chief Frans Timmermans and antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager – are already looking elsewhere for their next roles.

Meanwhile, K. Kariņš is seen as a man with the qualities that make him an international politician. 58-year-old Krišjānis Kariņš was born in the US state of Delaware, speaks English with an American accent, and his supporters believe he is a suitable and natural choice for a high-ranking position. He has previously also served as Latvia's Minister of Economics.

“I don't feel particularly tired,” K. Kariņš said in an interview with POLITICO last week, hinting that he is keeping his options open. “I certainly have a little experience – and I cannot rule anything out; I am definitely interested in continuing in politics.”

The loser of the battle between these two heavyweights will likely have access to decent consolation prizes, Latvian officials point out.

A series of high-level positions need to be filled in Brussels next year, including the presidencies of the European Council and the European Parliament, as well as finding the next NATO Secretary General. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Kaja Kallas) has said that the Baltic states expect a more significant place on the European geopolitical stage, given the recent shift in European power dynamics towards the east.

https://www.politico.eu/article/valdis-dombrovskis-eu-commission-latvia-trade/