According to the flash estimate published by the CSP, in the second quarter of 2020, GDP fell by 9.8% year-on-year. The decline in GDP is slightly larger than could have been expected based on available information, but it cannot be called a surprise, as uncertainty is very high. Furthermore, as the statisticians themselves point out, these data may be subject to significant revisions. Compared with the previous quarter, economic activity, based on seasonally adjusted data, decreased by 7.5%.

It can be said with a very high degree of confidence that GDP will grow in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, but concerns for the fourth quarter are mounting. On the other hand, the outlook for the next year and beyond is becoming brighter, thanks to the rapid development of coronavirus vaccines.

It is logical that the decline in the service sectors in the second quarter was significantly greater, at 11.0%. The pandemic is a crisis that most affects human interaction, on which services are more dependent.