As the international climate change summit COP29 approaches, the European Union finds itself in a complicated position. Following the European Parliament elections held in June, the Brussels institutions are still only resuming their work and the leaders of the European Commission have yet to be confirmed, which means the EU is preparing for COP without knowing who its next climate commissioner will be. Nor is the previously officially proposed emissions reduction target for 2040 known.
This target will be an interim step between the EU's 2030 goal of cutting net emissions by 55% and its 2050 goal of reducing net emissions to zero. The European Commission is standing by its position and proposes a 90% cut in net emissions, but this still has to be approved by the European Union's member states and the European Parliament, which in turn means that the EU will head to COP29 without any concrete increase in its targets since COP28, – particularly with regard to a new nationally determined contribution and emissions reduction target.
The EU's internal legislation on energy and the environment also rests on fairly unstable foundations. Over the past five years a considerable number of “green” laws have been adopted and now have to be implemented. Some of them, such as the much-debated phase-out of new internal combustion engine cars and the law on making EU supply chains deforestation-free, are meeting serious resistance.
Events in the coming weeks:
- COP29. The summit will take place from 11 to 22 November in Azerbaijan. Many regard it as a staging post between COP28 and COP30, while others point out that it is the last COP before countries submit their new nationally determined contributions and the main forum for agreeing a new climate finance goal (NCQG). On 14 October, European countries signed off their negotiating position, including hopes for an “achievable and fit-for-purpose” finance target, as well as calls to step up climate change mitigation efforts and the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. They also backed nuclear energy, a significant shift in the European Union's approach. All of this comes at a time when the International Renewable Energy Agency is warning that the world risks falling short of the goals set at COP28. Meanwhile, the European Parliament has criticised the human rights situation in the host country, Azerbaijan.
- Confirmation of the top posts. From 4 to 12 November the European Parliament will discuss the candidates for the European Commission's senior posts. During this period Parliament can exercise its power and reject candidates, as well as demand more detailed information about the Commission's plans. The main candidates to watch are Dan Jørgensen, the candidate for energy and housing commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra (climate, net zero and clean growth), Jessika Roswall (environment and a competitive circular economy) and Teresa Ribera. The candidates have already answered written questions. Their answers have been analysed by Politico.
- A possible delay to the Deforestation Regulation. The European Union's major law on preventing deforestation could enter into force a year later than planned, given concerns that it has not been properly prepared. The law aims to reduce the EU's role in deforestation worldwide when it comes to palm oil, cattle farming, soy, coffee, cocoa, timber, natural rubber and rubber products, and related goods. The law was due to take effect at the end of 2024, but the European Commission proposed postponing it by a year and also issued guidance on its implementation. EU member states have already approved this and the European Parliament will vote on it on 14 November. While environmental organisations and some politicians welcomed the move, several countries called it protectionism and businesses warned that product prices would rise considerably.
The latest from Europe – a round-up of the past month:
- COP16. The international biodiversity summit (COP16) has concluded in Colombia. Ahead of it, EU member states reaffirmed their commitment to implementing the Global Biodiversity Framework agreed in 2022. Its aim is to halt the decline in biodiversity and protect a third of the planet's nature by 2030, as well as to support the financial mechanism set up to help achieve this goal. At the summit the EU announced several funds totalling almost 160 million euros. The funds include money to combat the wildlife trade, to manage biodiversity sustainably on the high seas and to expand knowledge in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. It will also step up efforts to attract private capital.
- The phase-out of new internal combustion engine cars. The fight continues over the rules to phase out sales of new internal combustion engine cars by 2035. The European Commission supports them. The proposal is backed by some industry groups, such as the European Association for Electromobility. However, carmakers such as BMW and industry groups want the rules changed. EU member states such as Italy and the Czech Republic are trying to mobilise support against these requirements.
- Countries propose new energy and climate targets. In its new national energy and climate plan (NECP), Greece has set a more ambitious renewable energy target for 2030. All EU member states must submit these plans to the European Commission to demonstrate that they are on track to meet the bloc's targets. By the end of the decade Greece's goal will be for renewables to account for 82% of electricity generation, compared with 66% in the previous plan. That would mean a substantial increase in renewable energy capacity – in 2023 wind and solar power made up slightly more than 41% of the country's electricity output. Meanwhile, the European Commission told Austria to speed up its planned emissions cuts and energy efficiency measures.
- Energy prices remain on the agenda. At a meeting on 15 October, Europe's energy ministers expressed concern about energy prices, citing price rises in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. They discussed possible solutions, including increasing cross-border transmission capacity, investing in interconnectors and improving cooperation. The energy ministers of the North Sea countries asked the European Commission to do more to support offshore wind energy, including ensuring that the criteria for project tenders are uniform and that the rules on financing cross-border infrastructure are clearly understood. In November, EU leaders will also discuss competitiveness and a single energy market, which would mean better coordination, greater energy flows between countries and smaller price differences.
