Over the last 150 years, the world has seen rapid progress, which has had a positive impact on human development. A significant driver of this progress was the revolutionary changes in the energy sector, which stimulated innovation and progress in many other areas, significantly accelerating the pace of global economic development. Human living standards have improved significantly during this time: 200 years ago, the average life expectancy was around 30 years, but today it exceeds 70 years.
The technological revolution in energy allowed machines not only to replace human physical labour but also to build and manufacture previously unattainable things, travel quickly and conveniently around the world, and improve the quality of life by heating and lighting our homes, providing clean water, significantly improving sanitary conditions, and powering all kinds of household appliances and devices with electricity. Such progress would not have been possible without innovations in energy and the mass production of energy.
Predicting the future is a complex process, as changes in this dynamic era are occurring rapidly, and no one can state with absolute certainty what the socio-political reality will be in 30 years. However, assuming there are no major natural or man-made disasters, the global population is likely to increase from almost 8 billion today to approximately 10 billion in 2050, and human purchasing power will also increase significantly. Together, this will increase the demand for various goods and energy. At the same time, there will be a growing demand for a higher quality environment and more balanced development, as the overly intensive use of limited resources negatively affects the quality of life. The consequences of global warming will be felt more and more, and greater restrictions on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be necessary.
It is now absolutely clear that the current global method of energy production is unsustainable. Over hundreds of millions of years, nature has accumulated vast carbon reserves in the form of fossil resources; today, humans are burning these carbon reserves for energy at a very rapid rate. As a result of burning fossil resources, the amount of carbon dioxide causing the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere is increasing significantly, affecting the climate all over the world.
Every year, people around the world consume 15 billion tonnes of fossil resources in the form of oil, coal, and gas. In the future, the role of fossil resources must decrease. Firstly, over time, the reserves of these resources will diminish and their extraction will become increasingly expensive, while other energy production technologies will become increasingly competitive. But, secondly (and primarily), this level of fossil resource exploitation will not allow us to reach the long-term goal of climate policy – carbon neutrality – nor will it allow us to reduce global warming.
The question is often asked whether bioresources could completely replace fossil resources in energy or become a significant alternative. It must be said that on a global scale, this will not be possible. The volume of fossil resources currently used is enormous and incomparably larger than the potential offered by responsible and sustainable bioresource production (at least with the bioresource production technologies known at present). According to data from the World Bioenergy Association, the gross final energy consumption from all energy sources worldwide in 2019 was 379 EJ (exajoules). Fossil fuels accounted for more than 79% of total energy consumption, while the share of renewable energy sources has remained constant at 17% since the beginning of the century (see image). In 2019, solid biomass, mainly from forestry, accounted for 85% of the total biomass supply.
In the long term, traditional wood bioresources are not the best alternative for replacing fossil resources in energy; they could be a local solution in certain regions, especially in the medium term. On a global scale, energy production from wood biomass is not a sustainable solution, as increasing the extraction of bioresources on such a large scale would create a significant conflict with the solutions needed in the areas of biodiversity, environmental pollution, and GHG emissions, ultimately worsening the quality of the human living environment.
Although traditional wood bioresources are not a global solution for replacing oil in the energy sector, it should be noted that the place of bioresources in the context of energy will be very significant in the future. The The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also points to a great risk, namely that without bioenergy, the UN's long-term sustainable development goals regarding climate change and energy security will not be met.
Firstly, there are areas where there may be no alternative to bioresources. Currently, the energy sector is moving towards electrification: this is happening in both energy production and consumption. In energy production, fossil fuels are being replaced by renewable electricity generation solutions, such as wind turbines and solar panels. In the field of energy consumption, traditional fuel-powered cars are being replaced by electric vehicles, and gas heating is being replaced by heat pumps. However, there are some limitations to the current shift towards energy electrification. Certain processes are either impossible to electrify or their electrification will be very expensive, for example in aviation. It is in these cases that bioresources could be the solution – by producing the latest generation of liquid biofuels for aviation needs.
Secondly, the potential of bio-waste in the energy sector should be fully utilised. Methane, a greenhouse gas that is many times worse than carbon dioxide in the medium term, is released into the atmosphere during the decomposition of both household waste and manure. At the same time, methane is an excellent energy source. Biomethane is already widely used in energy around the world, including in public transport. It is difficult to imagine a climate-neutral world in which this bioenergy source is simply released into the atmosphere, contributing to global warming, which is why the responsible management of bio-waste must certainly be part of the future of the energy sector.
Thirdly, oil is used not only for energy but also for the production of plastic and textiles. It is in the production of plastic and textiles that bioresources are the only sustainable alternative to oil. Oil products also play an important role in construction; for example, cement production is a very energy-intensive process in which energy is mainly obtained from fossil resources, accounting for at least 8% of total global greenhouse gas emissions. Timber is the main and best alternative to energy-intensive concrete. Although this example does not describe the direct use of bioresources in energy, bioresources can also make a significant contribution to ensuring the sustainability of the energy sector in this way.
Instead of a summary, it can be said that many different technologies are currently being used in the energy field and bioenergy is one of them, but its future use depends on many factors, including political ones. Although traditional wood bioresources could be a solution for local energy decarbonisation in the medium term, as it is a green energy source that does not depend on changing weather conditions, the growing future demand for limited biomass resources could change the situation. An increasing proportion of biomass will be processed into higher value-added products, including the latest generation of liquid biofuels, while the rest of the energy sector will use that portion of bioresources for which there are no other alternatives.
Article first published in the 2022 edition of the “Zaļās mājas” association, “Forestry Industry 2050. Latvia’s Green Deal”
Image used from the World Bioenergy Association, Global Bioenergy Statistics 2021, www.worldbioenergy.org/news/640/47/Global-Bioenergy-Statistics-2021/
Photograph by Pierre Pellegrini used