The geopolitical tension created by the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has now lasted more than three years, and the question of the risk of food shortages has also come to the centre of attention for policymakers, security experts and the public. Disruptions to supply chains caused not only by the war but also by climate change have shown vividly just how great our dependence on imported food products is. It is important to remember that the first and decisive stage in the entire food production chain is quality seed material. In crisis situations it is precisely seed material that is stored first, because future harvests, the availability of food and society's resilience to food shortages all rest on it.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization likewise notes in its publications that plant breeding is one of the main cornerstones for reducing the risk of food shortages. It helps to increase and stabilise yields, as well as extending storage life and thereby reducing food losses, and it improves plants' resistance to diseases, pests and climate stress, thus reducing crop losses.
How can the risk be reduced?
The Covid-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020 already highlighted the weak points in Latvia's food supply chains, revealing a dependence on raw material supplies, labour and export markets. Latvia's food sector withstood the initial shock of the crisis relatively well, thanks to the fact that the country has around 25 large food producers whose capacity exceeded domestic consumption. As Ināra Šure, head of the Federation of Food Companies of Latvia, pointed out, this is an important factor in the context of national security as well. Moreover, the agriculture and food sector accounts for a significant share of Latvia's exports and of the overall value of the national economy. To ensure the resilience of these sectors in the event of future crises, local food chains need to be strengthened and self-sufficiency encouraged.
The availability of food is often associated with stocks, warehouses and logistics, but in reality it begins in the field. It means stable access to sufficient, safe and good-quality food. Yet to ensure that, everything starts with farmers' choices – which variety and seed material to sow, how resilient it is, what yield it is capable of producing and how well it can adapt to changing weather conditions. Certified seed material is therefore the foundation of the entire food production process. Without reliable and tested material it is impossible to secure stable yields or to build sustainable food production.
We are lagging behind the European level
Compared with several other European countries, Latvia still lags considerably behind in the use of certified seed material. In Estonia only 30% of the seed material used for hybrid crops such as oilseed rape and rye is certified; in Latvia the figure is 15-20%, while in Sweden and Denmark it reaches 70-80%. The Scandinavian countries realised long ago that every hectare matters – and that maximum yields can only be obtained with controlled, tested, cleaned and safe seed material. In Latvia the view still prevails that the seed material used by the neighbours will do for me too. That often means using home-grown seed material for years on end, without knowing how many of the variety's characteristics have been lost, what diseases it may carry, or whether its quality even allows a maximum yield to be achieved. Although such a choice may seem cheaper at first, it results in lower and less stable yields, poorer quality and a higher risk of disease spread, and it also becomes a source of low-quality food.
Plant breeding and seed production must become a national priority
Certified seed material does not appear by itself – it is based on a long and painstaking process: plant breeding, many years of testing, seed material production, inspections and certification. Plant breeding is particularly important because it is adapted to specific soil, farming practice and climate conditions. But if farmers do not support this process, breeders lose the motivation to continue their work – and with that, funding and investment decline, and ultimately so do quality and yield potential.
According to Central Statistical Bureau data, 3.2 million tonnes of grain were harvested last year, which is 436.4 thousand tonnes or 16.1% more than in 2023, when weather conditions left cereal productivity at its lowest level in the past five years – 34.1 centners per hectare. In 2024, for example, the total oilseed rape seed harvest fell by 100.4 thousand tonnes or 28.7%, with areas decreasing by 27.8 thousand ha or 19.0%. The average yield of winter oilseed rape per hectare fell from 23.7 centners in 2023 to 21.3 centners in 2024 and is the lowest in the past six years. Plant breeding focused on improving winter hardiness would help to change these negative statistics.
The choice of variety is one of the main factors in yield growth – on average it contributes roughly a 1% increase in productivity per year. The study The socio-economic and environmental values of plant breeding in the EU and for selected EU member states (The socio-economic and environmental values of plant breeding in the EU and for selected EU member states) concluded that plant breeding accounts for about 66% of yield growth. Meanwhile, the study The economic, social and environmental value of plant breeding in the European Union (The economic, social and environmental value of plant breeding in the European Union) notes that, thanks to breeding, wheat yields in the European Union have increased by more than 22 million tonnes since 2000 – enough to bake around 32 billion loaves of bread.
Quality seed material means greater security
Certified seed material is an investment in greater security and in the future. It brings lower risk, because the variety's origin and characteristics are known; greater predictability, because yield and the growing period have been proven in trials; higher product quality, which is valued more highly on the market; and a lower risk of food shortages – it is worth remembering that plant breeding began in the middle of the 20th century with the aim of obtaining more grain from a single hectare. In changeable conditions, where any drop in yield or loss of quality can cause substantial financial losses, the choice of seed material is becoming ever more critical.
Specific choices are needed
Reducing the risk of food shortages does not call for loud slogans – it calls for specific choices. Will we put our trust in tested seed material, or will we carry on using seed material of unknown origin? Will we support plant breeding and seed production, or will we think only about today? Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and other European countries have understood that in a crisis – whether caused by the weather, geopolitics or market price fluctuations – safe seed material is a farmer's first insurance instrument. It is time for Latvia to take this seriously too. I urge you to consider your choices, risks and costs and to select certified seed material for your farms that suits your farming methods, because in the long term it will deliver a better-quality and more stable yield.