If logging in the European Union is reduced on climate and environmental protection grounds, timber extraction (and logging) along with environmental problems will increase considerably in other parts of the world, the latest study shows. For example, if 132 million cubic metres of timber were left unharvested in EU countries and Norway, that volume would be offset by an additional 86 million cubic metres of logging elsewhere in the world.
The ambitious climate and environmental policy targets set by the European Union are expected to raise the standard of environmental protection requirements worldwide.
But! “That is not quite how it works,” says Mārita Kallio, professor of forest economics and forest policy at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences, who presented the results of her study on 11 December at an event organised by the Finnish Forest Foundation.
As logging volumes fall in Europe, there will be a significant shift of logging to other countries. At the same time, both the economic benefits and the environmental problems associated with the forest sector will be transferred to other parts of the world.
Mārita Kallio's study is an analysis of possible scenarios, comparing the so-called baseline scenario, in which there is full competition between countries and participants seek the greatest economic benefit, with a situation in which the targets of the regulation are met and the objectives of the biodiversity strategy are implemented. The results indicate that the negative impact of EU policy on the forest sector stems mainly from the implementation of the LULUCF Regulation (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry). The European Union Biodiversity Strategy also has a substantial impact.
Logging “moves” to the Americas
According to Professor Kallio, if the targets of the regulation were met, 132 million cubic metres of timber would be left unharvested in EU countries and Norway. Overall, logging would decrease by only a third of that volume, namely by 46 million cubic metres. Two thirds of that volume would be offset by increased logging elsewhere in the world, chiefly in the Americas.
Outside the European Union, the risk of biodiversity loss is greater than in Europe, Professor M. Kallio stresses. In the places to which logging would be relocated, the coverage of protected areas is smaller than in the European Union. In those regions, forest use is also monitored less strictly than in Europe.
Problems for sawnwood and plywood production
The study points out that wood products have a beneficial effect on the climate. They continue to store the carbon obtained from forests. These benefits will diminish if the target set out in the regulation is achieved.
According to the study, sawnwood and plywood production will fall the most worldwide, even though these products are the best carbon sinks. Production of cardboard, which replaces plastic, is also declining.
Meeting the carbon sequestration targets is far from over
The volume of logging has a direct effect on the amount of carbon stored in wood and wood products. If logging decreases, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will fall. However, according to the results of the study, the effect is substantially smaller than expected.
If logging in the European Union is reduced by 115 million cubic metres per year between 2030 and 2035, the net reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions will be approximately 22 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.
The study examines a situation in which forest harvesting yields far fewer forest sector products – with the aim of achieving the carbon dioxide reduction mentioned above. Such an approach is very expensive.
The study concludes that the carbon dioxide sequestration target set in the European Union can be achieved only if forestry production is restricted in the near future to the level it was at 15 years ago – during the financial crisis.