Consumer prices rose in October, but the price changes were on the whole typical for the month. The increase was driven by more expensive energy resources, while a more moderate influence from seasonal factors and lower food price pressure worked in the opposite direction.
According to the latest data from the Central Statistical Bureau, consumer price levels in October 2025 rose by 0.4% compared with September. The prices of both goods and services increased by 0.4%.
October traditionally sees a rise in consumer prices
This is mainly determined by seasonal factors. This year the overall price increase was steeper than in the previous two years, but more moderate than before the Covid-19 pandemic and the energy crisis, when October prices usually rose by 0.4–0.8%. The price rise was largely driven by an increase in heating tariffs in Riga and several other municipalities, as well as by more expensive food, fuel and air transport, while it was held back by cheaper alcoholic beverages and personal care products. The rise in food prices this October was the most moderate since 2020, when prices fell under the impact of the Covid-19 crisis, and, leaving that period aside, the lowest since 2014. Prices also rose slightly in October in the essential food groups covered by the memorandum on price reductions, mainly in the vegetable segment because of seasonal factors. It should be noted that the price rise for fresh vegetables was very moderate compared with previous years, which indicates that this initiative is still helping to curb food inflation pressure. Meanwhile, both the more moderate than usual rise in food prices for this month and the drop in clothing and footwear prices, which is unusual for the month, point to a weakening of seasonal effects.
In the goods sector, the largest upward effect in October came from the rise in prices of housing-related energy resources, which pushed the overall consumer price level up by 0.3 percentage points. Prices rose for all the main types of energy resources except natural gas, where they remained unchanged. The biggest effect came from the rise in heat energy prices – by 4.4% – which was mainly driven by the new tariff of AS “Rīgas Siltums” taking effect on 1 October, as well as by tariff increases in several other municipalities. With the more intensive heating season getting under way, October also saw increases in the prices of electricity (by 1.5%) and solid fuel (by 2.6%). The rise in electricity prices was driven by higher exchange prices, which pushed up tariffs linked to electricity exchange prices. Apart from the effect of the heating season, the price rise was also driven by lower electricity generation from renewable energy sources (less solar and wind generation) and by a reduced flow of electricity from the Nordic countries owing to technical problems and repairs to interconnections.
Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 0.5% in October, which raised the overall consumer price level by 0.1 percentage points. The price rise was mainly driven by more expensive fresh vegetables, bread, fish and dairy products, while the largest downward effect came from falling prices for oils, fats and pork.
World food prices fell in October for the second month running
They fell by 1.6%, and over the year, compared with October 2024, they dropped by 0.3%. The fall in prices was driven by declines in the prices of sugar, dairy products, meat and cereals, which outweighed the rise in vegetable oil prices. Sugar prices fell to their lowest level since December 2020, driven by forecasts of ample global supply: high production in Brazil and expected larger harvests in India and Thailand, as well as lower oil prices, which reduced demand for bioethanol production. Dairy product prices fell for the fourth month running. Prices fell in October across all product groups, reflecting abundant export supply from the EU and New Zealand, helped by favourable weather, and weak demand from Asian and Middle Eastern countries. Meat prices fell after eight months of increases, mainly because of declines in pork and poultry prices. Pork prices fell owing to ample supply and lower Chinese import demand following the introduction of new import duties on EU products. Poultry prices fell because Chinese trade restrictions linked to avian influenza forced Brazilian exporters to redirect supplies to lower-priced markets. Beef prices, by contrast, continued to climb, supported by steady global demand. Cereal prices fell for the sixth month running across all the main groups, thanks to good harvest prospects and ample global supply. Vegetable oil prices, in contrast, rose, with the index reaching its highest level since July 2022, driven by increases in the prices of palm, rapeseed, soya and sunflower oils. Palm oil prices rose slightly in October, helped by forecasts of a fall in exports from Indonesia, despite higher production in Malaysia. Sunflower oil prices rose for the fourth month running because of limited supply and a late harvest, while rapeseed and soya oil became more expensive owing to limited stocks in Europe and rising demand in Brazil and the USA respectively.
After two months of decline, fuel prices rose in October – by 0.8%, which raised the overall consumer price level by 0.05 percentage points. The price increase was similar for both diesel and petrol.
Prices on the world oil market fell overall in October
Brent crude's average monthly price fell by about 5% compared with September, though at the end of the month it was 3% lower than at the close of September. Price movements in October were shaped by opposing supply and demand factors: concerns about global overproduction and weakened demand continued to put downward pressure on prices, while geopolitical events and the risk of sanctions against Russia's oil sector briefly pushed them up. Over the month, the price of Brent crude fluctuated between 61 and 66 US dollars per barrel. At the start of the month prices fell as the market reacted to the OPEC+ decision on a limited output increase which, although smaller than expected, failed to ease concerns about high supply and weak demand growth. Downward price pressure was reinforced by rising supplies from Venezuela, the resumption of oil flows from Kurdistan via Turkey, and stock increases in the USA and China. In the middle of the month prices dropped to a six-month low, driven by International Energy Agency forecasts of a growing market surplus and rising production in the USA, Canada and Brazil, alongside lower demand forecasts. At the end of the month, meanwhile, volatility returned to the market when US sanctions against Russia's “Rosneft” and “Lukoil” caused a brief price rise on fears of supply disruptions, but this effect was quickly offset by news of high oil output in the USA and expectations of a possible OPEC+ production increase, so that Brent crude prices stabilised at around 65 US dollars per barrel at the close of the month.
A significant effect on the overall consumer price level also came from the 1.5% rise in the prices of goods related to furnishing and maintaining the home, which raised the overall price level by 0.05 percentage points. This was mostly driven by more expensive cleaning and care products, as well as household furniture.
The largest downward effect in October came from the fall in prices of alcoholic beverages – by 2.3% – which lowered the overall consumer price level by 0.1 percentage points, with the decline affecting all types of alcoholic beverages except beer. The price reduction was most likely driven by lower seasonal demand after the summer period and by retailers revising base prices to adapt to limited sales following the introduction of restrictions on trading hours, as well as by competition in the market.
A notable price fall in October under the influence of promotions was also seen for personal hygiene goods and beauty products, at 4.1%, which lowered the overall price level by 0.1 percentage points.
Clothing and footwear prices, meanwhile, fell by 0.8% in October, which, as last year, is a trend unusual for the month. This was most likely influenced by lower demand and by autumn–winter season sales starting earlier, which points to retailers' efforts to boost sales in competitive conditions. Apart from the price fall observed last year, the only similar case in this month was in 2021, when prices fell under the impact of Covid-19 restrictions.
Prices of services rose by an average of 0.4% overall in October, which raised the overall price level by 0.1 percentage points. The largest upward effect on consumer prices came from the rise in passenger air transport prices, most likely driven by a reduced number of flights in the winter schedule, an increase in demand in mid-autumn (because of business travel and school holiday trips), and the end of promotions, when airlines offered discounts in September to fill the winter season. A further effect came from more expensive outpatient medical services in the specialist and dental segments. The largest downward effect on the overall price level, meanwhile, came from the fall in accommodation service prices, which continued because of the end of the tourist season and lower guest activity at accommodation establishments.
In other groups of goods and services, price fluctuations over the past month had no significant effect on the overall price level.
In October 2025, consumer prices rose by 4.3% compared with October of the previous year. Average annual inflation was 3.6%.
Price changes in Latvia will continue to be significantly affected by global price fluctuations and world economic developments, especially the geopolitical situation and its impact on energy and food prices. For 2025 as a whole, average annual inflation is expected to be around 3.8%.