According to data from the Central Statistical Bureau, manufacturing output in June 2024 fell by 8.4% compared with June 2023 on an unadjusted basis, while on a calendar-adjusted basis it fell by 3.8%. Overall, in the first half of the year manufacturing output was 3.6% lower than in the corresponding period a year earlier.
It should be noted that development trends still differ across the various industrial sub-sectors. In June this year, on an annual basis and according to unadjusted data, the most significant negative contribution to the overall decline in output came from the largest manufacturing sub-sector — wood processing (-8.3% compared with June last year). Output also fell in computers, electronic and optical equipment (-18.5%), machinery and equipment (-30.8%), fabricated metal products (-12%) and the food industry (-4%). The decline was partly offset by rising output in printing (+17.2%), the chemical industry (+3.5%) and electrical equipment (+2%).
In June, on an annual basis, manufacturing turnover at current prices also fell by 6.9%. Export volumes fell by 7.1% and volumes of products sold on the domestic market by 6.3%. The most notable declines were in sales of wood and wood products, computers, electronic and optical equipment, food products, fabricated metal products, and machinery and equipment. Sales of electrical equipment and chemicals, on the other hand, increased.
Manufacturing is expected to return to positive growth rates in the second half of 2024, driven mainly by export opportunities. Difficulties will persist for those companies that are still tied to the markets of Russia and the CIS countries. In this situation they will have to continue looking for new supply options and markets for their goods. Industries oriented towards the domestic market will be affected by consumers' purchasing power.